Cobalt Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Have never started a thread before. Event seems in range, and a decent bit of the subforum is at reasonable range to potentially start off as snow before changing to rain. Hopefully I bring some good luck and we manage a steal. Starting things off... ICON has a decent front end thump, especially for favored North burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I don’t think this will pan out for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 NAM colder but less thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: NAM colder but less thump Until tomorrow when it will be warmer with no thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The angle of how the precip approaches is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 We have got to get the NW Crew more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 41 minutes ago, Ji said: The angle of how the precip approaches is terrible Atleast the icon is on our side....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 52 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Until tomorrow when it will be warmer with no thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Atleast the icon is on our side....lol Quick 3 to 6 hour thump N VA and North on 00z run... 3 to 4 inches NW VA into C MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 21 minutes ago, yoda said: Quick 3 to 6 hour thump N VA and North on 00z run... 3 to 4 inches NW VA into C MD Where do I sign...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 hours ago, Cobalt said: Have never started a thread before. Event seems in range, and a decent bit of the subforum is at reasonable range to potentially start off as snow before changing to rain. Hopefully I bring some good luck and we manage a steal. Starting things off... ICON has a decent front end thump, especially for favored North burbs. We need to call this one the Cobalt Snowstorm, because it is gonna shellack many with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 It could be a snowstorm, if either it moves 100 miles south, or you move 100 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 From LWX: A low pressure system will connect to the tail-end of this warmfront Wednesday and move toward the northeast across the region. With a low-level cold air wedge forming on the forward flank of the warm front in our northern and eastern zones, any precipitation that evolves could be in the form of snow or even a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. There are uncertainties in types and amounts, so far, and even some discrepancies between the models. All in all, we could be looking at another wintry mess later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Eventually rain will overspread the region in the amounts around one quarter to one half inch midday Wednesday into Wednesday afternoon. Seasonable temperatures expected Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Painful for us in northern Virginia...missing a storm by 50 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Maybe we eek out a nice front end thump. This could be one of the most legit threats this season, that isn't saying much but I would consider 2 inches a major hit and something to get excited about. Lets do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 47 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Painful for us in northern Virginia...missing a storm by 50 miles... Things are just getting back to normal winter. Having Delmarva and SE VA get hit as much as they did recently is an anomaly. The map above represents a more typical winter scenario here. NOVA is great for jobs and traffic but not snow as I am sure you are aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 whoa is that GFS snow for real? I thought this was another mixing event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The CMC is nice event for those of us to the west. It and RGEM handled yesterdays system very well. So who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 have i been sleeping on this event? both the GFS and CMC give me near 6" snow.... whatttt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: have i been sleeping on this event? both the GFS and CMC give me near 6" snow.... whatttt? Anyone north of I-70 and the usual spots south of I-70 should keep an eye on this one. It could be a pretty wintry mess on tap again, but with potentially more snow in the front end if things can trend slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: have i been sleeping on this event? both the GFS and CMC give me near 6" snow.... whatttt? It is a very heavy thump being modeled for sure. Over inch per hour rates for 3 or 4 hours. And we know the models struggle with scouring out the cold air early. We also have a HP above us this time. Not in an ideal position but it should help hold some cold air in place. The one thing I have noticed the past couple of runs is the HP is a little weaker than was being modeled yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, mappy said: have i been sleeping on this event? both the GFS and CMC give me near 6" snow.... whatttt? It looks like it might be legit up your way - I think it got lost in the watching of the ice event over the weekend. Cobalt did a good job starting this thread, I think. ETA - whoever has the ability to pin threads, can this be pinned and the Super Bowl ice thread unpinned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Anyone north of I-70 and the usual spots south of I-70 should keep an eye on this one. It could be a pretty wintry mess on tap again, but with potentially more snow in the front end if things can trend slightly colder. i was expecting another wintry mess, not quite the front end thump being advertised however 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It is a very heavy thump being modeled for sure. Over inch per hour rates for 3 or 4 hours. And we know the models struggle with scouring out the cold air early. We also have a HP above us this time. Not in an ideal position but it should help hold some cold air in place. The one thing I have noticed the past couple of runs is the HP is a little weaker than was being modeled yesterday. it was pretty cold all day yesterday, not sure i went above freezing until very late in the day 9 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It looks like it might be legit up your way - I think it got lost in the watching of the ice event over the weekend. Cobalt did a good job starting this thread, I think. ETA - whoever has the ability to pin threads, can this be pinned and the Super Bowl ice thread unpinned? i don't have pinning powers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12Z NAM has nice front end thump. But then goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, mappy said: i was expecting another wintry mess, not quite the front end thump being advertised however Ah. Gotcha. It certainly has the potential. One thing to monitor this go around will be the surface winds on Wednesday morning. If they remain very light or calm like yesterday, there could be another prolonged icing event for Central and Northern MD, as well as Northern Neck of Va into Panhandle of WV. If winds do pick up, temps might creep above freezing easier and the majority of the system could be plain rain starting late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. I would like to see the high a little further south on Wednesday morning to have a shot a pretty wintry event. Just no blocking to hold it in place. I do see Wednesday morning being a huge P.I.T.A for the commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Ah. Gotcha. It certainly has the potential. One thing to monitor this go around will be the surface winds on Wednesday morning. If they remain very light or calm like yesterday, there could be another prolonged icing event for Central and Northern MD, as well as Northern Neck of Va into Panhandle of WV. If winds do pick up, temps might creep above freezing easier and the majority of the system could be plain rain starting late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. I would like to see the high a little further south on Wednesday morning to have a shot a pretty wintry event. Just no blocking to hold it in place. I do see Wednesday morning being a huge P.I.T.A for the commute. sounds like i am taking a laptop home with me tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Ah. Gotcha. It certainly has the potential. One thing to monitor this go around will be the surface winds on Wednesday morning. If they remain very light or calm like yesterday, there could be another prolonged icing event for Central and Northern MD, as well as Northern Neck of Va into Panhandle of WV. If winds do pick up, temps might creep above freezing easier and the majority of the system could be plain rain starting late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. I would like to see the high a little further south on Wednesday morning to have a shot a pretty wintry event. Just no blocking to hold it in place. I do see Wednesday morning being a huge P.I.T.A for the commute. Was just looking at the 3k NAM sfc winds. Looks like a light easterly flow...yesterday had a south sfc wind 12 hours before precip moved in. Would think it will be tougher to scour the cold from the typical places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Things are just getting back to normal winter. Having Delmarva and SE VA get hit as much as they did recently is an anomaly. The map above represents a more typical winter scenario here. NOVA is great for jobs and traffic but not snow as I am sure you are aware. It’s official. I’m moving up north. There’s nothing of interest in this area anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12 hours ago, BristowWx said: I don’t think this will pan out for most of us. It will not. This is mostly a northern burbs thread because they are the only ones with a shot IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Was just looking at the 3k NAM sfc winds. Looks like a light easterly flow...yesterday had a south sfc wind 12 hours before precip moved in. Would think it will be tougher to scour the cold from the typical places. The easterly component does help there, and areas to the west out near Frederick to WV are probably in a better spot for prolonged icing in that kind of setup, but if you really want to lock in cold, we want really light winds to calm. That shows a pretty stout surface inversion layer present to trap the cold near the ground. There's nothing we can do above the ground for later in the morning or afternoon with the high to the north on the move and southwesterlies working in on the eastern flank of the low. We can do what we do best with CAD, and that's my biggest concern. The biggest question beforehand is how fast can qpf shield reach into the area while the thermal profiles are still ripe for snow. I think areas north of I-70 are in play for a thump before any flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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