ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m still thinking about these last adjustments NW. Models will tickle NW and then everything will go a little colder during nowcast time. I feel like that is a common theme for these SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Models will tickle NW and then everything will go a little colder during nowcast time. I feel like that is a common theme for these SWFEs. We can almost take this to the bank. Some of the southern weenies started getting excited yesterday but the guidance from the last 12 hours has been predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Models will tickle NW and then everything will go a little colder during nowcast time. I feel like that is a common theme for these SWFEs. Pretty much. Hoping for a few inches here but at least it doesn’t look like it will be washed away since any rain that does fall looks to fall with temps in the 30s hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Pretty much. Hoping for a few inches here but at least it doesn’t look like it will be washed away since any rain that does fall looks to fall with temps in the 30s hopefully You may be good for 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 And yeah the so-called one tongue is actually fairly low. Hopefully with the high in a position like Will said it will help fend off any warmth that does come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I'll 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Reggie still hitting the sauce I'll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, moneypitmike said: I'll I'll take that. Pitt1 and 2 FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I'm thinking about 1-1.5" of snow followed by 1-1.5" of rain. #droughtbegone Just about 6" of precip has fallen since Jan 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 We rain. Congrats up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GC over to N ORH county to S NH might get smoked for a 6-8 hour period. Wouldn't be shocked if they saw 8-10" in 6-7 hours. Timing and dumpage 12/13/07 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Timing and dumpage 12/13/07 ish bring it on! hope we can lock that in 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And yeah the so-called one tongue is actually fairly low. Hopefully with the high in a position like Will said it will help fend off any warmth that does come. Yeah - it's a little unusual for a SWFE. Peak "warmth" is right at 850.... normally we get that 700mb garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah - it's a little unusual for a SWFE. Peak "warmth" is right at 850.... normally we get that 700mb garbage. It's kind of anecdotal, but I have noticed in previous events where the warm tongue was lower, they tended to go colder as we got in nowcast mode. It makes sense as the models will under estimate the CAD more the lower we get in the atmosphere. We do have the problem of ironing out the track first though...if we wiggle west, it's gonna be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 50 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Reggie still hitting the sauce Link pretty please? I can't find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, snowgeek said: Link pretty please? I can't find it. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=qc&mod=gemreg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Euro looks a bit SE of 00z run at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Yeah def a tick colder on this run. That's really cold at the sfc too...BOS even has a hard time going above freezing....forget about the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Yeah euro is nice for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Gets mid level warmth inland quite a ways... but thats an icy look down here with sfc low over Long Island Sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just keep it frozen, that’s all we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Looks good. All that hand-wringing, pearl-clutching and calls of no snow til later this month are proving to be comedic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Usually swfe events end up tracking overhead with drizzle at the end after most qpf is frozen but this is tracking over LI. nice positive trend with the high forcing it se some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Here is the 12Z Euro Kuchera storm total. It seems perhaps 10 to 15 miles further south than the 0Z map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3-5” Pike south with heavy icing. Hopefully colder trends push south the next 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Kuchie struggles in the marginal layers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Cut down the 12-18” amounts some and spread the 2-6” blue zone further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 still looks like a few inches of snow to icy mess, i think there is a strong voice any serious snow totals will be rt2 north seems like a wintry day with lots of icy sidewalks for days after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Kuchie struggles in the marginal layers. Yes it does...I'd prob bring the whole thing about 20-30 miles south. It's def still got a lot of non-snow frozen precip though on this run...as Ryan mentioned, it's still blowing the mid-level warmth to the NH border. But the algorithm prob flipping precip to IP/ZR a bit too fast during the WAA phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 This still falls in the 8-12" category for the ones that stay all snow, This is moving right along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: This still falls in the 8-12" category for the ones that stay all snow, This is moving right along. So you're say I can't lock in the 15" the Kuchie map shows for MPV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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