powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They have the upper and midlevels down pretty well, but these sfc low tracks over the interior won't happen...bring down the surface temps too to the north of that front...you'll be wedged frozen still at 00z tomorrow. You prob flip to IP/ZR at some point but it's not warming above freezing. Quick question about this...I know we talked about this a few weeks ago how lows will either go NW of the mountains or SE to the coast, but we've had a few events lately where they have gone right through SNE/CNE. Highly anomalous tracks but isn't that what the one two nights ago did? Are those riding a boundary and that's why? Or is this more of a function of the high pressure squeezing it south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Dude.. it’s you against the world. Still time to bail man I respect he's sticking to his gunz. You do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dude.. it’s you against the world. Still time to bail man Pope or die Didn't Mike Francesa say he's the only pope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Yea but you're on the same side as "the world". That's pretty damn good justification to be on the other side... Gynx also flagged warm potential IMBY. Glad we don’t live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Pay close attention to the wind barb directions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Crusty 4-8'' Rt. 2 area and north, west of 495 with 8-10'' in dendriteland. In the 10 years I've been reading the evolution of boards that became American Weather I don't think it has ever rained in my hood during a SWFE. Doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: This looks like a completely different event. I'm lost looking at this... well... for the general reader, be leery of this situation as it is being portrayed subtly better or worse for particular user. It's probably a testament to the system being right down our throats that we can cherry pick a model that fits therein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I respect he's sticking to his gunz. You do the same. Respect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 In the pope's defense, there has been nothing in the 12z suite that should bolster enthusiasm. It's very possible a hot mess for much of the area with snow to slop. Obviously there will be a gradient to who has more snow vs. slop. Climo argues wintery, fortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Yeah jeets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well... for the general reader, be leery of this situation as it is being portrayed subtly better or worse for particular user. It's probably a testament to the system being right down our throats that we can cherry pick a model that fits therein valid point. But to counter that, I've also learned that when making a decision, its best to weigh based on "believability" and remove opinions (models) that have none. Less is sometimes more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Quick question about this...I know we talked about this a few weeks ago how lows will either go NW of the mountains or SE to the coast, but we've had a few events lately where they have gone right through SNE/CNE. Highly anomalous tracks but isn't that what the one two nights ago did? Are those riding a boundary and that's why? Or is this more of a function of the high pressure squeezing it south? The one a couple nights ago had zero CAD...the high was like over the flemish cap...so there was almost no thermal gradient whatsoever to stop a low from coming inland. This case (as in most cases) is not like that...we have a clear CAD drain that makes it extremely difficult to penetrate lower pressures inland when there's a much easier path of less resistance to the south and southeast. When you have any semblance of CAD, the way to get a low over like ORH is to have crazy upper air dynamics just to the west...like a huge neg tilt strong vortmax riding through ALB or something. We clearly don't have that here, so we're prob going to see one low try and go up toward BGM and another cut acorss the south coast of CT into RI/SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: In the pope's defense, there has been nothing in the 12z suite that should bolster enthusiasm. It's very possible a hot mess for much of the area with snow to slop. Obviously there will be a gradient to who has more snow vs. slop. Climo argues wintery, fortunately. STFU snowman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The one a couple nights ago had zero CAD...the high was like over the flemish cap...so there was almost no thermal gradient whatsoever to stop a low from coming inland. This case (as in most cases) is not like that...we have a clear CAD drain that makes it extremely difficult to penetrate lower pressures inland when there's a much easier path of less resistance to the south and southeast. When you have any semblance of CAD, the way to get a low over like ORH is to have crazy upper air dynamics just to the west...like a huge neg tilt strong vortmax riding through ALB or something. We clearly don't have that here, so we're prob going to see one low try and go up toward BGM and another cut acorss the south coast of CT into RI/SE MA. swiss cheese shows exactly that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, DomNH said: Crusty 4-8'' Rt. 2 area and north, west of 495 with 8-10'' in dendriteland. In the 10 years I've been reading the evolution of boards that became American Weather I don't think it has ever rained in my hood during a SWFE. Doesn't happen. I like Nashua better than my location for this. You stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: We aren't trying to give you a hard time. It's just we've seen this song and dance many times. It is extremely difficult to dislodge the cold in these setups in interior NE MA and SNH. No i think its clear you Were lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Mid Day Channel 3 news here in CT has the change over to rain happening fairly early on 3pm or so and then lasting through around 10 or 11 pm when it winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 How does the North Shore of Boston look like for snow amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 enjoy SWFE kids and you know who you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z Euro looks to pretty much hold serve from 0z, Takes the SLP right over SE MA close to the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro goes over PYM. Pretty much spot on 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Yeah that is basically dead nuts with 00z...trying to toggle to see if there's any difference in thermals and it's almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: Mid Day Channel 3 news here in CT has the change over to rain happening fairly early on 3 or so and then lasting through around 10 or 11 pm when it winds down. most of the frozen is typically the 84 corridor and nw in a swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro looks to pretty much hold serve from 0z 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I'd be surprised if the 12z euro isn't warmer... this was a good sequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: enjoy SWFE kids and you know who you are December 2007 ain't walking thru that door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that is basically dead nuts with 00z...trying to toggle to see if there's any difference in thermals and it's almost identical. Maybe a tic east with the track but virtually just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I would say if anything, it was maybe the smallest tick east with everything....but we are literally talking like 5-10 miles...smaller than the statistical noise of the model most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I'm thinking pretty icy here with the north wind draining down the CTRV. Not expecting much snow, but I'll taken frozen in any form these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: this was a good sequence. lol, We have seen this act many many times with how these go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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