jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: God bless. Yep, I guess you're tossing the whole 12z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 idk the 12z did not make me feel any better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yep, I guess you're tossing the whole 12z suite? Sfc temps? Yeah I'd toss them. You're not hitting freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Sfc temps? Yeah I'd toss them. You're not hitting freezing. this should be fun to watch tomorrow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Still robust MAV snow numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yep, I guess you're tossing the whole 12z suite? No, I'm utilizing the 12z suite as I do any other suite. A tool to inform my forecast, which is also comprised of a pretty firm grasp of local climatology and model biases in relation to certain mesoscale phenomena, namely agesotrophic cold drain. Good luck- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Sfc temps? Yeah I'd toss them. You're not hitting freezing. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Same thing happened in the 12/23 ice event at BOS. nrly vectors with temps rising to above 32 draining from the source region? Take the under. Under that setup there was close to 1/2" of ice here in Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I'm banking on tickling 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 We heavily ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z so far seems like a little snow followed by an extended period of zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 12z so far seems like a little snow followed by an extended period of zr More difficult forecast down your way. If you only get 2" and then flip to PL/RA there will be lots of people b*tching about why school was canceled. Of course models could also tic colder at 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 GGEM seems a bit warmer. Hard to tell with the 6 hour panels, could just be timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z so far seems like a little snow followed by an extended period of zr There haven’t been any changes since yesterday. It’s a 3-5” heavy thump for N CT, hours of zr with temps <32, ends as a burst of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: More difficult forecast down your way. If you only get 2" and then flip to PL/RA there will be lots of people b*tching about why school was canceled. Of course models could also tic colder at 18z... I'd be more inclined to cancel school for .30" of ice accretion, than I would 5" of snow...just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd be more inclined to cancel school for .30" of ice accretion, than I would 5" of snow...just me. Ray, what's your feeling on icing in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd be more inclined to cancel school for .30" of ice accretion, than I would 5" of snow...just me. Do you think there is the potential for that much ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There haven’t been any changes since yesterday. It’s a 3-5” heavy thump for N CT, hours of zr with temps <32, ends as a burst of snow I actually agree with you on all of that except ending as a burst of snow. I think the ending as a burst of snow in SWFE is very difficult with that mid level dry slot trucking through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Do you think there is the potential for that much ice? Some spots could see .25", anyway..I would think. I don't want to speak out of turn because I haven't delved into that much. The only limiting factor is going to be residence time in any one area...I would say N CT, and s central Mass have the best shot....like southern ORH co. Hell, if this ticks a bit warmer, my area could be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I actually agree with you on all of that except ending as a burst of snow. I think the ending as a burst of snow in SWFE is very difficult with that mid level dry slot trucking through. FRDRZ from leftover moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There haven’t been any changes since yesterday. It’s a 3-5” heavy thump for N CT, hours of zr with temps <32, ends as a burst of snow Hopefully that is correct. I am always gun shy of that mid level warmth rocketing north and then watching it sleet for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I guess some didn't look at the models for the light snows that were popping up in W NE. Looks like NAM ended up being more right than wrong with it. We talked about it yesterday and asked why it was not mentioned, Euro showed exactly what we got a nice thick covering here at work with an impressive burst, flurries now. Wintry appeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: FRDRZ Yeah I can't remember a single SWFE where you get a backlash period of snow with a fast moving open wave and mid-levels cutting through New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Some spots could see .25", anyway..I would think. I don't want to speak out of turn because I haven't delved into that much. The only limiting factor is going to be residence time in any one area...I could say N CT, and s central Mass have the best shot....like southern ORH co. Yeah this is trucking along...there won't be big accretions with this due to the time factor, but obviously it only takes a little to cause a nightmare on untreated surfaces. This is going to be a typical "amped" SWFE...pretty safe to stay with climo on the amped SWFE....go solid advisory for pike region (3-6 from south to north about 25 miles each side)....5-9 for border region up into CNE...maybe some lucky lollis to 10-11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Yeah I can't remember a single SWFE where you get a backlash period of snow with a fast moving open wave and mid-levels cutting through New England. That's fraudulent imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I can't remember a single SWFE where you get a backlash period of snow with a fast moving open wave and mid-levels cutting through New England. Zippo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this is trucking along...there won't be big accretions with this due to the time factor, but obviously it only takes a little to cause a nightmare on untreated surfaces. This is going to be a typical "amped" SWFE...pretty safe to stay with climo on the amped SWFE....go solid advisory for pike region (3-6 from south to north about 25 miles each side)....5-9 for border region up into CNE...maybe some lucky lollis to 10-11". and then the solid 8-12 in Dendriteland, with the occassionally lucky 14" lollipop (but only in really wet SWFE) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Yeah... we usually do half decent in SW flow events down here... but this has a different look. Maybe an inch before changeover. Seems this is less favorable than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Hopefully towns have common sense and ditch the early dismissals tomorrow. Mass dismissals around noon-1 would be an epic disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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