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Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8


weathafella

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, None of the other models has this tracking over that area.

You can actually follow the exact piece of vorticity that the low tracks along starting around 21 hours near Memphis, TN. The thing just goes right along that vorticity all the way into interior SNE.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can actually follow the exact piece of vorticity that the low tracks along starting around 21 hours near Memphis, TN. The thing just goes right along that vorticity all the way into interior SNE.

It seems that every time i have seen models do this with convection it actually ends up east of where it has it, Already seen it a happen a couple times this year, Tossed.

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3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

ORH isnt getting into the mid 40s. Curious to see the 3km, it was colder than the 12km at 6z 

No way they are going to be that warm, The 3km has been colder then the 12km the last few runs, 2.6" snow on the 06z on the 12km, And 9.7" snow on the the 06z 3km here.............:lol:

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

ORH isnt getting into the mid 40s. Curious to see the 3km, it was colder than the 12km at 6z 

The whole run after that "convection gone wild" part in the southeast after about 18 hours is suspect. We obviously know sometimes convection can be real, but this was a bit extreme IMHO...it took the convection and used the ball of vorticity it created to run the low all the way into interior SNE...it followed it perfectly.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I don't think the NAM run is off, and I'm certainly not tossing it. I don't see any reason to toss it.

The mid level and low level flow is out of the south and east, for hours leading up to go time, and during the storm. 

Highly doubtful the sfc low tracks that far inland. More likely over SE MA.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

All other guidance takes the low over SE Mass, I don't know how you don't discount the Nam, Its on its own.

That was the first 12z run of the suite. I don't have any reason to discount it (yet).

 

I've been leaning warmer for days with this for reasons I've previously described...

 

Also given the convective nature of this event, I think the mesos will have more use here. The nam performed well with the previous event which was similar to this. In addition, the mesos - particularly the high res - are usually superior at picking up BL temps at this range.

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