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Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8


weathafella

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This event is portrayed in the runs as the old "in like wall,"  an onset type we have not seen this year.  We haven't really had many isentropic/instability burst snow events this season, and this is often how they arrive: suddenly impactful. A given locale plummets in visibility across a 1/2 hour or less.  You go from slate gray cloudy ... with a kind of translucent pall haze, giving the faux impression it is snowing as though that haze were intended as warning to what's about to happen ... Pump out an email to a colleague, a journey down the isles of a grocery store.. etc, you look out the window at a white tsunamis.  

The morning may dawn unscathed, and sensibly, faux security sets in because that visage and the warnings or advisories, they don't match ...And so the usual morning commute ensues in blithe.  That's right ... get all of society nice and installed and tucked into offices, or x-y-z carrying on in the daily business', when the roads get impassible inside of hour at 11 am. 

Everyone tries to leave...grid lock and viola!  Angry society blames NWS...  

It's like being in the 1998 ALCS... with a 5-2 lead over the Yankees in the 5th inning. You are powerless to stop inevitability of the Red Sox still losing. You can see it coming, and the cultural genetics of Americans to only accept their own culpability in any scale of reality, as the utter last resort, will have anyone directly or indirectly involved in operational Meteorology on trial as a damnable institution, squared away and neatly impugned by this time Thursday morning.  

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This is awesome on the Box page https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

ocation Snow Amount Potential Chance of Snow Within These Ranges
Low End
Snowfall
Expected
Snowfall
High End
Snowfall
0" 0.1-1" 1-2" 2-4" 4-6" 6-8" 8-12" 12-18" >18"
Ashford, CT <1 3 6 10% 13% 15% 26% 26% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Brooklyn, CT 0 2 5 20% 14% 16% 28% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Canterbury, CT 0 2 4 25% 16% 16% 31% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chaplin, CT 0 3 6 17% 12% 14% 24% 25% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Danielson, CT 0 2 5 20% 14% 16% 28% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Eastford, CT <1 4 6 4% 13% 16% 29% 28% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Hampton, CT 0 3 5 20% 12% 15% 25% 28% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Killingly, CT 0 2 5 19% 14% 15% 27% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Plainfield, CT 0 2 4 25% 17% 17% 34% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pomfret, CT 0 3 6 13% 14% 15% 27% 28% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Putnam, CT 0 3 5 16% 13% 15% 26% 29% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Scotland, CT 0 2 4 21% 16% 17% 32% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sterling, CT 0 2 4 30% 14% 14% 27% 15% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Thompson, CT 0 4 6 11% 14% 14% 26% 27% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Willimantic, CT 0 3 5 14% 16% 18% 31% 21% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Windham, CT 0 3 5 17% 16% 17% 30% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Woodstock, CT <1 4 6 3% 14% 16% 32% 31% 4% 0% 0% 0%
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This event is portrayed in the runs as the old "in like wall,"  an onset type we have not seen this year.  We haven't really had many isentropic/instability burst snow events this season, and this is often how they arrive: suddenly impactful. A given locale plummets in visibility across a 1/2 hour or less.  You go from slate gray cloudy ... with a kind of translucent pall haze, giving the faux impression it is snowing as though it were intended as warning to what's about to happen ... Pump out an email to a colleague, a journey down the isles of a grocery store.. etc, you look out the window at a white tsunamis.  

The morning may dawn unscathed, and sensibly, faux security sets in because that visage and the warnings or advisories, they don't match ...And so the usual morning commute ensues in blithe.  That's right ... get all of society nice and installed and tucked into offices, or x-y-z carrying on in the daily business', when the roads get impassible inside of hour at 11 am. 

Everyone tries to leave...grid lock and viola!  Angry society blames NWS...  

It's like being in the 1998 ALCS... with a 5-2 lead over the Yankees in the 5th inning. You are powerless to stop inevitability of the Red Sox still losing. You can see it coming, and the cultural genetics of Americans to only accept their own culpability in any scale of reality, as the utter last resort, will have anyone directly or indirectly involved in operational Meteorology on trial as a damnable institution, squared away and neatly impugned by this time Thursday morning.  

That's exactly what happened in 12/13/07...the traffic nightmare disaster that had kids stuck on school buses for 8 hours.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is going absolutely wild with convection in the southeast at 24 hours...we'll see if that changes the progression of the run...it was flatter to this point.

That's a good point actually ...

We discussed a couple days back how sensitive this/these sort of deals are in this highly compressed flow, where systems are 'squished' into very tight gradients both within with respect to storm typology, and their boundaries with the surrounding synoptic medium.  Some longish words there but if the reader gets it ...that's code for, subtle variances up stream having [perhaps] larger than usual sensible meaning.  The storm varies 50 mile N or south and it's 8" versus .5 in ice accretion versus 33.1 rain.  

So said variation could certainly come from latent heat loading down stream of the initial convection ... Lay that much mortar downstream in the flow, and you got to stack the bricks up a little taller ;) 

 

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