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Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8


weathafella

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s almost like it read my last post and drew the line. That should be final look

I hope its right....might be a little too cold though. Would like to see a tick colder tonight on guidance. Sometimes we trend them a little colder at the last second after a warmer trend before that. We've seen it many times before.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I hope its right....might be a little too cold though. Would like to see a tick colder tonight on guidance. Sometimes we trend them a little colder at the last second after a warmer trend before that. We've seen it many times before.

Also guidance is speeding this up . It’s got it snowing in SW CT by 8:00 and to Pike by. 10

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just got to see the 18z NAM ... colder yet.  Brings about .2 to .3" accretion for me back to roughly BAF here in the interior,  after 4-6" ...  helluva run.   These are nasty deals when you cut a high-end advisory in half yet manage to spare the warning lash...  NWS doesn't have a category for that when you fail warning snow or ice, but enough of either culminates and stops everything.  

I'm also impressed at how little time there is to catch breath between systems on these charts.  Already by late Thursday increasing clouds and overrunning snitz, grits and freezing drizzle before deciding wtf is going on with that deal.. And there's one not long after that too - ...

Go figure... an extended range working out, huh.  I think we all warned of this sort of turn-over pattern.

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

just got to see the 18z NAM ... colder yet.  Brings about .2 to .3" accretion for me back to roughly BAF here in the interior,  after 4-6" ...  helluva run.   These are nasty deals when you cut a high-end advisory in half yet manage to spare the warning lash...  NWS doesn't have a category for that when you fail warning snow or ice, but enough of either culminates and stops everything.  

I'm also impressed at how little time there is to catch breath between systems on these charts.  Already by late Thursday increasing clouds and overrunning snitz, grits and freezing drizzle before deciding wtf is going on with that deal.. And there's one not long after that too - ...

Go figure... an extended range working out, huh.  I think we all warned of this sort of turn-over pattern.

Fast and furious as we thought would happen. My stalker expected a total washout with cutters up the St Lawrence seaway. 

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Start as snow, go to rain, pina coladas, then vodka on the rocks a few hours later. 

Might have to watch for a "sloshing" event in your area...there def seems to be a little mesolow that tries to form off Cape Ann later in the event....might be raining there and then as the mesolow gets going, you slosh that 27F air from ASH and BED back into the city as winds go northerly. Could be pretty nasty if that ends up verifying.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might have to watch for a "sloshing" event in your area...there def seems to be a little mesolow that tries to form off Cape Ann later in the event....might be raining there and then as the mesolow gets going, you slosh that 27F air from ASH and BED back into the city as winds go northerly. Could be pretty nasty if that ends up verifying.

I saw that on the 3KM NAM. If you can, loop the weather.cod version because it's hourly. That's definitely a flash freeze look for sure. Will be an interesting event. If it's not going to be all snow, at least make the forecast interesting.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I saw that on the 3KM NAM. If you can, loop the weather.cod version because it's hourly. That's definitely a flash freeze look for sure. Will be an interesting event. If it's not going to be all snow, at least make the forecast interesting.

Some guidance trying for a flip to snow at the end too...so that could be nasty as well if there's a mesolow that sloshes the sub0freezing air back southeast.

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