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Spring 2018 Discussion


Hoosier

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Spring?  Winter?  Spring?  Winter? Anyhow, the end of the week system could have a bit of sneaky potential (snow wise) depending on phasing and there's another one right on its heels.  

Yeah, I was checking that end of week system out earlier. With the winter we've had in these parts, I'm sick of hearing the phrase, "Depending on phasing".

Definitely no switch flipping this year, spring is trying to ooze in.

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On 3/25/2018 at 11:35 AM, Hoosier said:

Spring?  Winter?  Spring?  Winter? Anyhow, the end of the week system could have a bit of sneaky potential (snow wise) depending on phasing and there's another one right on its heels.  

This end of week system is coming in with more snow on the 12z runs, especially the GFS.  I'd watch the trends to see if there's further improvements but things could get a little interesting especially with northeastward extent (hello Michigan)

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

This end of week system is coming in with more snow on the 12z runs, especially the GFS.  I'd watch the trends to see if there's further improvements but things could get a little interesting especially with northeastward extent (hello Michigan)

Yeah that system that rides the edge of the cold is a bit interesting, kind of like what just happened to our south. I am hoping for that outcome or rain. 12" or 0"

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14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah that system that rides the edge of the cold is a bit interesting, kind of like what just happened to our south. I am hoping for that outcome or rain. 12" or 0"

There's 2 systems in quick succession so not sure if we are talking about the same thing.  I was talking about the Thursday-Friday Ohio Valley low that moves northeast, but the system after that does look to be a snowmaker somewhere.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

There's 2 systems in quick succession so not sure if we are talking about the same thing.  I was talking about the Thursday-Friday Ohio Valley low that moves northeast, but the system after that does look to be a snowmaker somewhere.

Yeah I was looking at the second system, though I do agree Thursday/Friday could have snow on backside if the cold air comes in fast enough.

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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Yeah I was looking at the second system, though I do agree Thursday/Friday could have snow on backside if the cold air comes in fast enough.

18z 3 km NAM went kinda crazy with the changeover lol.  It really is a thread the needle to get the cold air in time so it probably won't happen... or if it does, wouldn't amount to a whole lot of accumulation.

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Appears to be a sneaky snow for Sunday/Monday shaping up for I-70 to the Ohio River from MO to OH. Models showing 1-4" with the higher amounts generally along/just north of the OH River. NAM is farthest south with heaviest along the river, Euro farthest north along I-70, and GFS/GGEM are in the middle. Easter snow anyone?

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1 minute ago, snowlover2 said:

Appears to be a sneaky snow for Sunday/Monday shaping up for I-70 to the Ohio River from MO to OH. Models showing 1-4" with the higher amounts generally along/just north of the OH River. NAM is farthest south with heaviest along the river, Euro farthest north along I-70, and GFS/GGEM are in the middle. Easter snow anyone?

Yeah I just mentioned it in the April thread.

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6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It will be ridiculous if we actually get sub 500 dm thicknesses into the US.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_28.thumb.png.4ed30c5e5d3e6a0325887b2d66ae1501.png

 

 

That’s cute...ugh. 

I have a hunch that the GFS is overdoing the cold in the medium range. Seen it before. Anyhow, I guess the prospects of severe weather have officially been put on hold for the next couple-few weeks...

 

 

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2 hours ago, IWXwx said:

On the other side of the coin, the GFS has had an interesting look around the 10th for a couple of runs. Could it be one more blast of winter before a bout of severe a few days later? It's been known to happen.

Yes, there is a pretty good storm signal around the 8th-10th.  The preceding cold should be pretty impressive for the time of year so I'd say there's legit snow potential with this one.

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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yes, there is a pretty good storm signal around the 8th-10th.  The preceding cold should be pretty impressive for the time of year so I'd say there's legit snow potential with this one.

Agree...and record cold potential, especially in areas with snow cover for a night or two. Still can’t believe the crazy cold on some of the GFS progs for next weekend. 

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A lot of energy plowing into the west coast this weekend.  This should then result in perhaps the last real wintry storm for a significant part of the region around Sunday-Monday (of course Bo-land and Will-ville can still get snow for quite a while).

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Man, Friday the 13th looks HUGE on the 12z Euro.  Too bad it's 10 days away lol.  Has the look at a potential high risk verbatim.  Potent jet energy at all levels, deep moisture, potent short wave, and a sub 980mb low.  It'll be interesting to see how this thing evolves as we get closer.  That's a lot of jet energy coming on shore.  

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11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Man, Friday the 13th looks HUGE on the 12z Euro.  Too bad it's 10 days away lol.  Has the look at a potential high risk verbatim.  Potent jet energy at all levels, deep moisture, potent short wave, and a sub 980mb low.  It'll be interesting to see how this thing evolves as we get closer.  That's a lot of jet energy coming on shore.  

That has been on the models especially the Euro and GEM for a while, that trough to be honest. GFS has it too but much more subdued. The key is though that they all bring in a massive trough by day 8. Something to keep an eye on over the next couple days.

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