Harry Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, Stebo said: I'd love to see the Euro be right with the MJO, just slide right past phase 8/1 and land in phase 2. In total agreement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Posters that still occasionally post on Amwx and some that used to (Isotherm, Earthlight/John Homenuk, Dsnowx53/Doug Simonian, HM/Anthony Masiello) have been all over this as related to the ongoing SSW and SPV disruption and split. They've done a great job with this winter overall and I'm inclined into buying this -NAO being a noteworthy one. HM had a tweet today that many of the classic west based -NAO blocks started out east based and then retrograded and it seems like it will be possible with this. They didn't think it would result in a noteworthy cold period, but one cold enough for an eastern US winter storm threat from late Feb into March. That may or may not translate to a winter storm threat out this way. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk If a -NAO truly does form in conjunction with a -AO, we'll have a chance in our sub-forum for some opportunities before it slides towards western Greenland. The AO/NAO may help loosen this progressive pattern up. With the return of the SE ridge, were starting to see more active storms as the Nina flexes its muscles and a strong gradient begins to form. It would be great to get a nice Arctic block so we can see have the potential for some phasing in there as well. I think February 18th-28th maybe our best chance at seeing a nice storm or two. I like the placement of the cold anomalies out west along with the east based -NAO and SE ridge. Would not be surprised to see a nice gradient storm as the pieces are all there, but its a matter of timing to get that phase we been yearning for. What HM and others like crankyweatherguy are hinting at may allow for some miller B's, aka February 2013 opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 So CPC thinks met spring will be warm throughout the south and into the northeast with equal chances in the Midwest. They also think it will be wet from St. Louis area on northeastward. Could be an interesting 3 month period if this pans out with appropriate aid from svr wx parameters as we come off La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 26 minutes ago, Indystorm said: So CPC thinks met spring will be warm throughout the south and into the northeast with equal chances in the Midwest. They also think it will be wet from St. Louis area on northeastward. Could be an interesting 3 month period if this pans out with appropriate aid from svr wx parameters as we come off La Nina. Sounds like a busy severe season if that even remotely pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Sounds like a busy severe season if that even remotely pans out. The CPC temp forecast looks fair, but not great. Wouldn’t the pretty high + anomalies translate to some sort of ridging over the SW pushing the jet up to where it kinda was for the first half of winter. That said, the look of the east coast seems good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, NWLinnCountyIA said: The CPC temp forecast looks fair, but not great. Wouldn’t the pretty high + anomalies translate to some sort of ridging over the SW pushing the jet up to where it kinda was for the first half of winter. That said, the look of the east coast seems good to me. Yeah I would rather see the anomalies higher in the southeast. This is workable though. It is tough to figure out though with a 3 month range because in May you want those higher anomalies out that way to enhance the EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Spring is my least favorite season. Too cold to do much outside and too warm for snow. The ground is muddy and trees are bare. Hope it skips right to 70s and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Spring is my least favorite season. Too cold to do much outside and too warm for snow. The ground is muddy and trees are bare. Hope it skips right to 70s and sun. Right on. I think most of us big-time winter enthusiasts agree that Spring is the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 26 minutes ago, blackrock said: Right on. I think most of us big-time winter enthusiasts agree that Spring is the worst. Summer is my favorite season though. I'm an odd fellow. Summer, Fall, Winter, Spring. But the first 2 months of lake effect season are close to summer. (Mid Nov-Mid Jan) Synoptic around here just can't compete with lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Yeah I would rather see the anomalies higher in the southeast. This is workable though. It is tough to figure out though with a 3 month range because in May you want those higher anomalies out that way to enhance the EML. Yeah, that look would suggest periods of northwest flow if not the predominant pattern. Northwest flow is a bit problematic early in Spring but can be a decent severe weather pattern later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 34 minutes ago, blackrock said: Right on. I think most of us big-time winter enthusiasts agree that Spring is the worst. Spring is alright for storms, just being down wind of the lakes tend to take the wind out of your sails a bit. Over here in this part of the state we can be luckier in the storm dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: The CPC temp forecast looks fair, but not great. Wouldn’t the pretty high + anomalies translate to some sort of ridging over the SW pushing the jet up to where it kinda was for the first half of winter. That said, the look of the east coast seems good to me. I am really not a fan of that temperature or precip outlook aside from the cold in the NW. That's really the only redeeming factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 9 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Summer is my favorite season though. I'm an odd fellow. Summer, Fall, Winter, Spring. But the first 2 months of lake effect season are close to summer. (Mid Nov-Mid Jan) Synoptic around here just can't compete with lake effect. I am a bit surprised that Winter is your third favorite! Ha. But, surprisingly, Fall is my favorite season. Snow is my favorite precip by far...but fall just has so many amazing things in total about its season. Fall, Winter, Summer, Spring here. 9 hours ago, Stebo said: Spring is alright for storms, just being down wind of the lakes tend to take the wind out of your sails a bit. Over here in this part of the state we can be luckier in the storm dept. Very true. The lake really hampers Spring here. Very damp, cloudy, and bare trees until May. We don't really get severe storms until the very end of May into June...then the lake stabilizes us through much of June and July. It gets quite dry. Then as August comes, and the seasons start to intermix, we get a boost in storms again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I can see where this is going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The pattern over the next ten days should put a big dent in the drought from ne TX/e OK up through St. Louis. The TX/OK panhandle area still can't buy a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: I can see where this is going... . If you're implying the drought is going to get worse from the panhandles back through the southwest, it's looking that way. If you're implying that feedback will allow drought to intensify in our subforum, it may not be denied, but will be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I can see where this is going... . A good portion of the drought to the southwest should take a beating this week. but yeah lets hope we get rain over the next couple months else it is going to be a very hot summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Kinda reminds me of 2012. Had some nice systems but drought impacted the moisture. Saw more mixing out of dews with very dry ground allowing temps to get higher to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 17 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Ensembles are really tanking the NAO to end Feb and into early March while retrograding blocking to west based, along with a continuation of a west based -EPO or -WPO sort of look and erosion of strong southeast ridge that will be a big player this upcoming week. Looks to be a split flow pattern, as signs are not really pointing toward western ridging building too much, so it should stay fairly active in general across the CONUS. Wouldn't be surprised there's some decent snow/wintry precip threats for parts of the sub to close Feb and through the first week or two of March. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk I really, really hope what's happening at the end there doesn't become a base state for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 I'm seeing interesting parallels to the late winter/early springs of years like 1976, 1984. 1997. All of those years followed a La Nina winter and all saw quite chilly springs, I believe. Do years when La Ninas transition to weak El Ninos see cooler than average springs in our region? January 1976 and January 1984 were apparently both very cold, but were followed by warmer than average Februaries then cooler than average Marches, Aprils and Mays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 I’m seeing literally nothing that points to a cold March now. I feared earlier that it would be much worse, but even with a record -NAO block we’re still going to see temps slightly above average Can only imagine how warm the second half of the month could get once the -NAO/AO relaxes a bit. Initially I thought we were going to see a cold March but I’m really starting to have second thoughts on that now. I’m also starting to think most of us are done with winter (except for the far northern parts of the subforum). We quite literally don’t have a cold source anymore, so even if we do see cold shots they probably will bring only seasonably cool air (barely below average really). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Well, for the first day of met spring here in central IN my forecast is for showers and possible t storms with a high of 57. I'll take it. I do think the roller coaster ride on temps will continue into March for a bit longer, though. Should make for some interesting weather to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 I am starting to see the tips of flowers starting to poke through the soil in these parts. This is the 2nd or 3rd year in a row now of seeing plants coming up before February ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, blackrock said: I am starting to see the tips of flowers starting to poke through the soil in these parts. This is the 2nd or 3rd year in a row now of seeing plants coming up before February ends. My crocuses are blooming here in central IN. Although we'll have a brief cool down, temps will still be normal/sbove normal around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 2/27/2018 at 10:57 PM, Indystorm said: My crocuses are blooming here in central IN. Although we'll have a brief cool down, temps will still be normal/sbove normal around here. My friend that lives here just posted pictures of crocuses blooming in her yard yesterday as well. The soil is very sandy here, which can really take in the heat from the sun...so that's my hypothesis of why things can start so early. But, then, since I'm next to Lake Michigan and it keeps springs cool...the growth of plants is very slow in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 We can stop with all of these nor'easters any time please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I’m liking the look of the end of March for a nice leap into spring warmth. I would suspect our severe weather chances increase as well. Particularly in the southern half of our subform. Once this longwave trough gets the heck outa here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 23, 2018 Author Share Posted March 23, 2018 Colder looking extended than I would like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenBo Posted March 23, 2018 Share Posted March 23, 2018 51 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Colder looking extended than I would like to see. It’s beyond frustrating. However, there’s hope if you believe in the rubberband theory. The bounce into warmth should be rather sharp. Cold Springs Warm Falls. trends die hard.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 25, 2018 Author Share Posted March 25, 2018 Spring? Winter? Spring? Winter? Anyhow, the end of the week system could have a bit of sneaky potential (snow wise) depending on phasing and there's another one right on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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