Hoosier Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 We are one month away from meteorological Spring (wow) and just under 7 weeks until astronomical Spring. What will it bring? As has been mentioned, and as has been noticeable to many, the winter has been on the drier side so far in much of the Midwest (even in some areas that are not suffering for snow). It's one thing for winter to be dry but it becomes a bigger issue if it continues into Spring, so that will be something to watch. For the severe fans, I'm wondering if we get into phase 2 of the MJO in March, which has been linked to a higher occurrence of bigger tornado events. Anyway, discuss anything and everything Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Morch? Is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I've heard there are differences between "turning dry" and "starting dry" in regards to spring/summer. It seems we are already dry so what does that mean going forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I am no fan of cold and snow (which I guess puts me in the vast minority here), but I would like to see us start building up at least somewhat more of a snowpack (we're back to frigid with bare ground, apart from a few dirty piles as of right now) to ease the risk of significant drought going into spring and summer, especially if we "Morch." My only use for winter weather patterns is the spring severe activity they lead into, and the only correlation I've made with some degree of certainty is I've never seen a good season follow an exceptionally dry winter where there was little to no snowpack to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Seeing the title of this post made me want to puke..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: Morch? Is that you? I’m rooting for a Morch 2012 redux too. I bet I’ll be even happier than your palms if we torch this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Everything is Morch nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Everything is Morch nowadays. And it's annoying. I hope it's deep freeze marchuary. But hey, the cfs, 4 weeks before its reliable range, is showing temps around 2 degrees above normal for March. I mean, that is practically 2012 in the bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 If this next 10 days doesn't yield, then lets just rocket our way into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Yes, I'm itching to follow spring t storms and svr wx, but I wouldn't mind one good winter storm whopper before that....snow...not ice please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I'm worried that this pattern carries into spring and we end up dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 We've been in this nw flow pattern for so long I would expect an eventual shift with a western trough as we move forward into spring with good sw flow out ahead of it. I'm hoping the dryness doesn't mitigate svr chances but pushes the dry line eastward to tap into gulf moisture which eventually will return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 10 hours ago, Indystorm said: We've been in this nw flow pattern for so long I would expect an eventual shift with a western trough as we move forward into spring with good sw flow out ahead of it. I'm hoping the dryness doesn't mitigate svr chances but pushes the dry line eastward to tap into gulf moisture which eventually will return. I'm hoping that your right about the dryness to our west being a plus for us farther east. If the current pattern persists, we could be toast (both figuratively and literally). In the meantime, I understand the thoughts posted above of if the upcoming stretch doesn't produce, let's go on into spring, but I'm never really ready for spring until mid March, then bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I'm not a huge severe wx follower...but do have interest when things are getting ready to fire up. I've read that the mjo is suppose to be in phase 2 as we break into met spring and there is a good correlation between that with a dying la nina pointing towards frequent severe tornado/storm outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Need to get rid of that recurrent Pacific pattern with the anticyclonic wavebreaking over the E Pacific/West Coast being driven by the troughing over eastern Asia and subsequent jet extensions. Otherwise we'll wind up with another dud of a severe season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 nothing wrong with another dud sever season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted February 12, 2018 Share Posted February 12, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 8:59 PM, michsnowfreak said: And it's annoying. I hope it's deep freeze marchuary. But hey, the cfs, 4 weeks before its reliable range, is showing temps around 2 degrees above normal for March. I mean, that is practically 2012 in the bag a March 1960 redux is looking increasingly likely around these parts. Just plain awful. Might not see our first 70 degree day until May this year. I blame the Mt Agung eruptions. it’s messing up the weather patterns around the world I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2018 Author Share Posted February 12, 2018 I didn't think it had erupted significantly yet... just a bunch of small stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 hour ago, cmillzz said: a March 1960 redux is looking increasingly likely around these parts. Just plain awful. Might not see our first 70 degree day until May this year. I blame the Mt Agung eruptions. it’s messing up the weather patterns around the world I think. Don't even remotely see this happening, I think you need to stop with the over the top nonsense that has zero factual basis to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 It does look like a strong -NAO block will form to end February and into March. Impossible to say yet how long it would last, but the previous occurrence of a strong -NAO from February into March was in 2013 and that blocking persisted into mid April before dissipating. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: It does look like a strong -NAO block will form to end February and into March. Impossible to say yet how long it would last, but the previous occurrence of a strong -NAO from February into March was in 2013 and that blocking persisted into mid April before dissipating. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk I am just skeptical of what it is showing. It has tried multiple times to show this only to keep on with +NAO. I think if we do go -NAO it won't be nearly to the capacity it is showing. Also from what I did see if we did end up going -NAO it could be east based which would dump the cold more so into Europe than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I am just skeptical of what it is showing. It has tried multiple times to show this only to keep on with +NAO. I think if we do go -NAO it won't be nearly to the capacity it is showing. Also from what I did see if we did end up going -NAO it could be east based which would dump the cold more so into Europe than here.Posters that still occasionally post on Amwx and some that used to (Isotherm, Earthlight/John Homenuk, Dsnowx53/Doug Simonian, HM/Anthony Masiello) have been all over this as related to the ongoing SSW and SPV disruption and split. They've done a great job with this winter overall and I'm inclined into buying this -NAO being a noteworthy one. HM had a tweet today that many of the classic west based -NAO blocks started out east based and then retrograded and it seems like it will be possible with this. They didn't think it would result in a noteworthy cold period, but one cold enough for an eastern US winter storm threat from late Feb into March. That may or may not translate to a winter storm threat out this way. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Posters that still occasionally post on Amwx and some that used to (Isotherm, Earthlight/John Homenuk, Dsnowx53/Doug Simonian, HM/Anthony Masiello) have been all over this as related to the ongoing SSW and SPV disruption and split. They've done a great job with this winter overall and I'm inclined into buying this -NAO being a noteworthy one. HM had a tweet today that many of the classic west based -NAO blocks started out east based and then retrograded and it seems like it will be possible with this. They didn't think it would result in a noteworthy cold period, but one cold enough for an eastern US winter storm threat from late Feb into March. That may or may not translate to a winter storm threat out this way. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Yeah I will have to look into it more. We will still need a retrogression of the -NAO though because it does look to start out East based by all accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Yeah I will have to look into it more. We will still need a retrogression of the -NAO though because it does look to start out East based by all accounts.John Homenuk has posted some good tweets about it lately, including several today. I read their thoughts on 33andrain on the long range discussion thread mostly. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: John Homenuk has posted some good tweets about it lately, including several today. I read their thoughts on 33andrain on the long range discussion thread mostly. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Yeah I see twitter, what I do also see is the -PNA locking in at the same time frame too. If that ends up being strong, then only New England will have a chance at anything of significance. We would probably be in a good spot here for warmth actually in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Also looks like the -EPO goes away right as the -NAO attempts to form, would be a negative for cold in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 45 minutes ago, Stebo said: Also looks like the -EPO goes away right as the -NAO attempts to form, would be a negative against cold in this region. The AO also goes negative.. PNA is negative the whole way but not as negative towards the end.. Not a combo ( -NAO, -AO, -PNA ) we see that often? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Harry said: The AO also goes negative.. PNA is negative the whole way but not as negative towards the end.. Not a combo ( -NAO, -AO, -PNA ) we see that often? Yeah it is a rare combo, the only worry I have with something like that is if the PNA isn't negative enough we would end up with confluence in the east and favor east coast vs here. Thankfully it looks like the PNA will be pretty negative for a while. With the AO/NAO both tanking though could set up a nice gradient somewhere in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: Yeah it is a rare combo, the only worry I have with something like that is if the PNA isn't negative enough we would end up with confluence in the east and favor east coast vs here. Thankfully it looks like the PNA will be pretty negative for a while. With the AO/NAO both tanking though could set up a nice gradient somewhere in the region. That is always my fear with a -NAO.. Ofcourse a bit depends on the kind of -NAO we have? I suspect some of this will change the longer the MJO hangs out in phase 7? Models are split on what to do with the MJO? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Thus something else to watch over the next several days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I'd love to see the Euro be right with the MJO, just slide right past phase 8/1 and land in phase 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.