BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Yea. And really man you and I are going to be in separate boats im thinking on this one. WX South just posted on Facebook and he too is sounding the alarm for myself into western NC, as the brunt of the qpf will come at the worst time if one does not enjoy ice, which for me I will take anything lol. Here is the discussion. WXSouth just posted this on Facebook. New model runs are still indicating a significant if not serious Ice event for western Virginia down to western NC. The edges are hard to draw how far east in the Piedmont though, but usually in cases like this, the further west you are nestled just east of the mountains, the harder it is to scour out the low level cold air. THis is a case where mountains by midday will be in the 40s in NC and VA mountans, but just east, places like Hot Springs,down 81 to Roanoke, Blacksburg, Galax, into western NC Mt. Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Hickory and Marion are all near 32 at the height of the pouring rain , with quite a bit of ICE on the trees. It begins in the morning, perfect timing to capture the lowest temps in western VA and western NC , and southwest Virginia to northeast TN, and hold them there. The only warming there will be from the "Top , Down" as the heavy rains move over by 1 and 2 PM, but then its ending rapidly just around that time,and the damage is done for the VA, NC portion. Ending around noon west of the divide. It will be a slow climb to freezing in those areas, and a few spots probably will stay at or below 32 all the way through the storm tomorrow around western VA and northwest NC foothills. With most of the projected .75" liquid falliing as ICE (little snow to start), with temps in the lee region only going to 33 or 34 at the very end , say last 2 hours of the precip shield. All in all it's looking like a signficant ice storm over a relatively small narrow zone nestled just east of the mountain range.Hopefully temps do jump up to 33 and 34 faster than I think , but in most Cold Air Dammig situations, they don't. But at the final couple of hours, when the heaviest rainis arrive, they may do so (and by late afternoon just ahead of the cold front, but the damage will have been done I'm afraid) Then clearing tomorrow night in all the Piedmont of VA, NC, SC and northern GA where the ground will be freshly wettened and not enough winds to evaporate the moisture so we'll have black Ice issues Monday Morning in areas that didn't even get freezing rain possibly Certainly we are because we are about 150 miles apart. I looked where Salem is and totally different than my location in N. piedmont. I totally agree you are in a great spot for CAD and ice accretion. Me not so much. I often forget to check locations of those on the board outside of the usual suspects. You will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Euro is around an inch out this way. Less the further east and south you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Euro is around an inch out this way. Less the further east and south you go. Did it have that 24 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 HRRR looks to be the coldest out of the models with all snow at the end of the run incoming. Not sure if it has a cold bias or not but here it is for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Here's the Euro qpf that falls as snow. I think that for most places near the cities ratios would probably be less than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Forecast high for today was 37...just hit 33/9 under clear skies. Tomorrow's high of 37 has been backed down to 34. It looks like somebody is line for a decent slop storm...well, decent for the winter of 17/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 A big difference between the Euro / RGEM and the GFS / 3k NAM is that the Euro and RGEM hit Maryland and northern Virginia with front-end snow before 10 am tomorrow. The 3k NAM thinks it's virga. It's hard to tell with the GFS, but I suspect it's the same as the 3k NAM. eta: Looks like the high-res RGEM is in camp virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 A pity Winter Weather Advisory for Montclair. The trend is our friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 18z 12K NAM really wants it to snow dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 If the 3K follows the trend of the 12K at 18z... Could be a nice little snowfall for the immediate N+W suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristymac03 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Hey guys. I've been creeping for some time now trying to learn. Just moved to Urbana, MD from Pensacola, FL. I can follow the hurricane jargon pretty well but this snow stuff isn't as easy. In this area are we looking at ice or mostly rain with maybe a little snow? Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just need an early start with good rates. This thread is so dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Be wary, that snowfall map is almost entirely sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Be wary, that snowfall map is almost entirely sleet. Oh of course I already figured this much. 3k nam also looks to mix n/w of the cities. Trend is your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3k nam at hr 23. Looks improved up your all's way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 NAM3K keeps me below freezing until 6pm. Could be a decent ice event out here, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 0.4-0.5” liquid equivalent falls as frozen for the NW suburbs of DC on the 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Kristymac03 said: Hey guys. I've been creeping for some time now trying to learn. Just moved to Urbana, MD from Pensacola, FL. I can follow the hurricane jargon pretty well but this snow stuff isn't as easy. In this area are we looking at ice or mostly rain with maybe a little snow? Thanks!! Probably mostly rain, but may start as some snow and then ice first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 By 7am Sunday most areas will have been above freezing for 3 of the last 48 hours. That will count for something tx/la gulf coast origins for lows are a sweet spot for us as the waa tends to rush in fast and precip does not have to wait for the main body low not increasing the clouds until 9pm would be really good and a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, Kristymac03 said: Hey guys. I've been creeping for some time now trying to learn. Just moved to Urbana, MD from Pensacola, FL. I can follow the hurricane jargon pretty well but this snow stuff isn't as easy. In this area are we looking at ice or mostly rain with maybe a little snow? Thanks!! Welcome to the forum! You are in a good spot up there compared to the cities for borderline events like this. If the precip comes in early enough, maybe an inch of snow with a crusty layer of sleet on top, then some ice glaze over that before going over to just rain. Sometimes when we have departing cold air masses like this, the models overdo the warm-up and we get more frozen than expected. That's what we have to hope for here. One thing's for sure -- there will be times in the future when you will love where you are. I've seen it snow 6-8" up there with just rain in DC. Being well northwest of I-95 is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I wouldn't be surprised if some areas n+w don't get above freezing till precip is almost shutoff . Nws has been decreasing tomorrow's highs last couple cycless I haven't cracked freezing yet today. At 31 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 WWA up for far NW counties... High clouds starting to increase...was hoping that would hold off until well after sunset. 33/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 NAM3 has a much weaker wind field than the GFS. In fact, most of the hi-res models have a weaker wind field. And the 18z NAM3 has more of an easterly component in those light winds it shows, as opposed to the southerlies we've been counting on. I do think that the I-95 corridor will get above freezing, as heavier rain in the afternoon will likely mix down the warm air not too far above the ground, but it may take some time. Getting rid of the cold air is not going to be as easy as the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristymac03 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Welcome to the forum! You are in a good spot up there compared to the cities for borderline events like this. If the precip comes in early enough, maybe an inch of snow with a crusty layer of sleet on top, then some ice glaze over that before going over to just rain. Sometimes when we have departing cold air masses like this, the models overdo the warm-up and we get more frozen than expected. That's what we have to hope for here. One thing's for sure -- there will be times in the future when you will love where you are. I've seen it snow 6-8" up there with just rain in DC. Being well northwest of I-95 is a good thing. We were excited to move here for the snow. Our kids have never expierenced it being born and raised in Florida. We move here and Pensacola gets snow and ice 3 times this winter and we have seen a dusting and a few inches. We are pretty bummed! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Never got above freezing here. I say bring the slop...I'm not traveling ...been sick as hell. You and me both...strep throat for about a week and cant seem to kick it. I can only take so much of tracking every detail of slop storms and Netflix! Ha... South wind here and high clouds...hoping a clearing moves through this eve. It's possible looking at current sat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Probably mostly rain, but may start as some snow and then ice first. Buzzkill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Probably mostly rain, but may start as some snow and then ice first. Buzzkill They have to do it for our own good you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I have to admit, this system looks wacky on the 24-36h panels with copious moisture developing out of an essentially bone dry stale arctic air mass over the southeast U.S., and almost no energy available to the system. There may be some potential here for surprise snowfalls in the 2-4" range but it could be very hit or miss too. When I look at the current surface charts, a typical temp/dp reading ahead of the developing southern wave is 50/10. This suggests that if saturation can even happen in time, the temp/dp will be something close to 34/31 as precip begins. It may prove helpful to snow production that the heaviest part of the precip will arrive after 6 p.m. Sunday lasting through much of the night to early Monday. So I have revised my forecast from snow only well away from cities to scattered 1-3" throughout and 3-5" potential. I don't think models have much of a handle on this since it's so weak and disorganized. Biggest surprise snow might be well to the southwest of DC in parts of western VA and higher Piedmont areas of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I have to admit, this system looks wacky on the 24-36h panels with copious moisture developing out of an essentially bone dry stale arctic air mass over the southeast U.S., and almost no energy available to the system. There may be some potential here for surprise snowfalls in the 2-4" range but it could be very hit or miss too. When I look at the current surface charts, a typical temp/dp reading ahead of the developing southern wave is 50/10. This suggests that if saturation can even happen in time, the temp/dp will be something close to 34/31 as precip begins. It may prove helpful to snow production that the heaviest part of the precip will arrive after 6 p.m. Sunday lasting through much of the night to early Monday. So I have revised my forecast from snow only well away from cities to scattered 1-3" throughout and 3-5" potential. I don't think models have much of a handle on this since it's so weak and disorganized. Biggest surprise snow might be well to the southwest of DC in parts of western VA and higher Piedmont areas of NC. Nonsense. All guidance has the precip ending in the early evening Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 High clouds and 35/6. Winds S at 8. Morning low was 9 and afternoon high was 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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