Chris78 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I don' know if I have ever seen this much model chaos so close to an event. The setup is similar on all of the models. But the temps have them all screwed up. I am just going to go with my climo out here. I am expecting a small thump, maybe 1-3, then some ice to drizzle. That is what usually happens when we have this cold of air in place with these type of events. And it is cold. I got down to 12 last night and am at 16 right now. That's my thinking as well. I'm right at the base of the catoctins. Usually we can do ok in these set ups. I'm thinking a couple hours of snow to a couple hours of mix then dry slot. Most of mesos barely get me above freezing during the afternoon. Even last night's Euro gave me a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: That's my thinking as well. I'm right at the base of the catoctins. Usually we can do ok in these set ups. I'm thinking a couple hours of snow to a couple hours of mix then dry slot. Most of mesos barely get me above freezing during the afternoon. Even last night's Euro gave me a couple inches. Hope you guys can pull off a little surprise snow before you change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 7.4 for my low. Independent Hill Va. Damn cold. Hope to see some sleet tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That's impressive..was that in Bristow, Va.? Yeah. West of Manassas and near Gainesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, Stormpc said: 7.4 for my low. Independent Hill Va. Damn cold. Hope to see some sleet tomorrow morning. Oh good. I thought I was imagining it. Still won’t help us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Pretty big difference in onset time between the 12km and 3km NAM’s. Precip underway by 10-11 am vs 2 pm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Pretty big difference in onset time between the 12km and 3km NAM’s. Precip underway by 10-11 am vs 2 pm around here. Also significant differences in the precip totals for the nam vs the gfs. The 6z gfs has about a third of an inch of liquid while the 12z 12km nam has over an inch in the 95 corridor in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 @clskinsfan 3K NAM looks good up your way from hrs 27-30. Has close to 1/2'' ice accretion for me. Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea..3k has the 4 course meal here as well...snow/ sleet /zrain /and rain. I wouldn't be surprised to see places with temps just above freezing still get ice accretion with how cold it's been . RGEM and 3K NAM have been rock solid for runs on runs in a row now. Canadian has been as well. Did you happen to see the Euro's output from last night? Don't see much talk of it. I know it had been showing something similar to a NAM type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 My lights are already flickering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The mesoscale models continue to spit out very different solutions for such a short leadtime. RGEM gets precip (snow) into DC area by 8 am. 3km NAM does it *six* hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: The mesoscale models continue to spit out very different solutions for such a short leadtime. RGEM gets precip (snow) into DC area by 8 am. 3km NAM does it *six* hours later. From past experiences over the years with precip coming from a southwest to northeast standpoint, it always ends up coming in sooner than models show a lot of the times. I have that feeling this one overperforms for some on the board. It is a big difference though, you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Euro likes a more of a snow/ sleet to rain shower setup..not much z rain...it must have colder upper levels vs nam rgem. Yea I will say. RGEM is actually a little colder to start than the NAM. Has me snowing at least moderately for a couple of hours before the transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 How is there so much precip being modeled in our region with a low hundreds of miles to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem might not be picking up on initial virga .. dews from 10 - 15 F tomorrow am..pretty dry stuff. And this will be an interesting test between the 12km and 3km NAM’s— not just precip onset (4 hour difference for the DC area) but surface temps too, especially in SW VA and Northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Cold air mass CAD. Just maybe we sneak a surprise if onset is in the 6-8 am time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 This will be one of those situations where the amount of ice (mostly NW areas) will really depend on how fast the clouds roll in. If we can get a few hours of good rad cooling once the sun goes down there could be a prolonged period of ice. I could see some spots barely making it above freezing for the event. Sfc winds are relatively light during the event. If clouds roll in this afternoon, then a brief period of ice will probably be favored in most areas before transitioning to rain. If I can hit 20f imby I would expect a decent ice event....which shouldn't be too difficult with clear/ partly cloudy skies and a dry airmass overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The southern low sort of takes over se of us ..below Not to mention good moisture trans from the atlantic and a little gulf too. Why doesn't the low form until much of the precip is overhead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Gem is still on an island with 3-4 inches on the snowfall maps (whatever the breakdown of snow/sleet/ice that is) just N/W of the cities. eta: GFS says good luck with that, CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 You can get a sense of where the moisture is coming from by looking at relative humiditiy at the 850 mb level. The wind streamlines at 850 and 700 mb tell a similar story. We get some from the northern stream and some from the Atlantic, but it looks like most comes from the Gulf. Below is last night's Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Gem is still on an island with 3-4 inches on the snowfall maps (whatever the breakdown of snow/sleet/ice that is) just N/W of the cities. eta: GFS says good luck with that, CMC. At this range and especially with this type of system, I put very little weight in the GGEM relative to the RGEM. With the NAM and GFS at least you get some diversity of opinion. But the RGEM and GGEM are so closely related that when they disagree on small-scale features at short range, there's usually not a lot of reason to go with the lower-resolution model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Gem is still on an island with 3-4 inches on the snowfall maps (whatever the breakdown of snow/sleet/ice that is) just N/W of the cities. eta: GFS says good luck with that, CMC. The GFS is more snowy this run to the west though. It took a small step towards the GEM with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Real nice graphic @cae. Definitely ample moisture trans at 700 and 850.. if only we were all snow ..lol Or if we were *any* snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Any word on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS is more snowy this run to the west though. It took a small step towards the GEM with temps. The GFS will keep trending. It sucks in these types of setups. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: The GFS will keep trending. It sucks in these types of setups. Just my two cents. Toward what? Longer frozen or more rain? Since we first started tracking this it has trended toward a less favorable set-up.there was a point where snow thump was something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Toward what? Longer frozen or more rain? Since we first started tracking this it has trended toward a less favorable set-up.there was a point where snow thump was something decent. I was specifically referencing the fact of cad related weather events with the gfs. Time and time again the gfs is always last to the party in these instances. I have not looked at the 12z gfs myself, but saw someone reference that the snow line moved further southeast and closer to the GGEM's depiction. It is not shocking imo. The gfs has scored some big coups this year but I do not see this being one of them. The short range hi-res models are pretty locked in at this time and really have been for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any word on the euro? It drops a few inches along the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: I was specifically referencing the fact of cad related weather events with the gfs. Time and time again the gfs is always last to the party in these instances. I have not looked at the 12z gfs myself, but saw someone reference that the snow line moved further southeast and closer to the GGEM's depiction. It is not shocking imo. The gfs has scored some big coups this year but I do not see this being one of them. The short range hi-res models are pretty locked in at this time and really have been for some time now. Fair enough. Location dependent 95 and 81 could stay colder longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Fair enough. Location dependent 95 and 81 could stay colder longer. Yea. And really man you and I are going to be in separate boats im thinking on this one. WX South just posted on Facebook and he too is sounding the alarm for myself into western NC, as the brunt of the qpf will come at the worst time if one does not enjoy ice, which for me I will take anything lol. Here is the discussion. WXSouth just posted this on Facebook. New model runs are still indicating a significant if not serious Ice event for western Virginia down to western NC. The edges are hard to draw how far east in the Piedmont though, but usually in cases like this, the further west you are nestled just east of the mountains, the harder it is to scour out the low level cold air. THis is a case where mountains by midday will be in the 40s in NC and VA mountans, but just east, places like Hot Springs,down 81 to Roanoke, Blacksburg, Galax, into western NC Mt. Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Hickory and Marion are all near 32 at the height of the pouring rain , with quite a bit of ICE on the trees. It begins in the morning, perfect timing to capture the lowest temps in western VA and western NC , and southwest Virginia to northeast TN, and hold them there. The only warming there will be from the "Top , Down" as the heavy rains move over by 1 and 2 PM, but then its ending rapidly just around that time,and the damage is done for the VA, NC portion. Ending around noon west of the divide. It will be a slow climb to freezing in those areas, and a few spots probably will stay at or below 32 all the way through the storm tomorrow around western VA and northwest NC foothills. With most of the projected .75" liquid falliing as ICE (little snow to start), with temps in the lee region only going to 33 or 34 at the very end , say last 2 hours of the precip shield. All in all it's looking like a signficant ice storm over a relatively small narrow zone nestled just east of the mountain range.Hopefully temps do jump up to 33 and 34 faster than I think , but in most Cold Air Dammig situations, they don't. But at the final couple of hours, when the heaviest rainis arrive, they may do so (and by late afternoon just ahead of the cold front, but the damage will have been done I'm afraid) Then clearing tomorrow night in all the Piedmont of VA, NC, SC and northern GA where the ground will be freshly wettened and not enough winds to evaporate the moisture so we'll have black Ice issues Monday Morning in areas that didn't even get freezing rain possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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