WeatherShak Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The physics haven't changed. The GFS has always been good with northern stream dominant winters. After the upgrade (almost 2 years ago now) it seems even better. The euro was "upgraded" too but quite frankly, it seems like a downgrade for our specific purposes. The GFS did trend towards a stronger southern low (like the euro) with the 12z run but it's not going to matter. The northern low does all the damage it needs to do by that point. Which the euro has trended towards. So in the end it looks like the GFS and Euro are going to meet somewhat in the middle...but that middle = not much snow in our entire region so it makes the gfs look that much better. lol Thank you for the analysis! Makes sense. Here's what I was referring to. The NOAA release, from a few weeks ago, claims they've upped its computing power by nearly 1/3rd, bumping into the top 30 of strong supercomputers in the world: http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/supercomputers/new-supercomputer-extend-noaas-weather-predictions-six-days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Thank you for the analysis! Makes sense. Here's what I was referring to. The NOAA release claims they've upped its computing power by nearly 1/3rd, bumping into the top 30 of strong supercomputers in the world: http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/supercomputers/new-supercomputer-extend-noaas-weather-predictions-six-days Interesting article! I also wonder how much the recent POES launch contributes to improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 euro looks a tick better. Gets some snow into Loudoun by 7am...still a mix by 2pm and then turns to cold showers. The qpf is a joke. What a joke this storm turned out to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 its a good thing this is mostly a rainstorm.....still very paltry precip for the western areas of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: Half of that falls as frozen precip down this way, i'd be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Half of that falls as frozen precip down this way, i'd be happy! If I got 0.4 snowflakes...huge win. Best winter ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, WeatherShak said: Thank you for the analysis! Makes sense. Here's what I was referring to. The NOAA release, from a few weeks ago, claims they've upped its computing power by nearly 1/3rd, bumping into the top 30 of strong supercomputers in the world: http://www.datacenterknowledge.com/supercomputers/new-supercomputer-extend-noaas-weather-predictions-six-days Despite more computer resources about to be put in place, there has been zero change to the GFS since the upgrade last July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, high risk said: Despite more computer resources about to be put in place, there has been zero change to the GFS since the upgrade last July. Because its perfect already. Cant get much better than it is this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: Ha! Winchester snow hole remains in effect. What a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ha! Winchester snow hole remains in effect. What a winter. Has there been another winter with such persistent Winchester snow hole? I can't remember one......seems like DCA is the usual snow hole spot, and we do pretty well in most events unless it's a coastal too far OTS (and then its not a hole, just a stripe too far east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 hours ago, Ji said: euro looks a tick better. Gets some snow into Loudoun by 7am...still a mix by 2pm and then turns to cold showers. The qpf is a joke. What a joke this storm winter turned out to be FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Ha! Winchester snow hole remains in effect. What a winter. Can't be right, we're in a good spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 At this point it's pretty comical. I have to admit that I hope we ride this trend to the end of winter. I'll win the snowfall contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At this point it's pretty comical. I have to admit that I hope we ride this trend to the end of winter. I'll win the snowfall contest. To this point, this is - by far - the #1 worst winter of my memory. Some might give it credit for periods of notable cold, but I absolutely down-grade it for having to deal with days and days of endless cold wind and absolutely no snow to show for it, and for coastal areas managing to reach 200% climo while we sit at 5%. **** this ****. I am done with it. Please, please let the rest of this miserable winter torch right to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: To this point, this is - by far - the #1 worst winter of my memory. Some might give it credit for periods of notable cold, but I absolutely down-grade it for having to deal with days and days of endless cold wind and absolutely no snow to show for it, and for coastal areas managing to reach 200% climo while we sit at 5%. **** this ****. I am done with it. Please, please let the rest of this miserable winter torch right to the end. How much snow do you have so far this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: How much snow do you have so far this year? 2". And half of that came on the Dec 8 crap-fest that didn't even stick to any hard surface other than my patio table. Truth is, there wasn't even that much in the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 49 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: To this point, this is - by far - the #1 worst winter of my memory. Some might give it credit for periods of notable cold, but I absolutely down-grade it for having to deal with days and days of endless cold wind and absolutely no snow to show for it, and for coastal areas managing to reach 200% climo while we sit at 5%. **** this ****. I am done with it. Please, please let the rest of this miserable winter torch right to the end. Here was January’s snowfall totals...pretty comical. I’m at 3” for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 45 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: 2". And half of that came on the Dec 8 crap-fest that didn't even stick to any hard surface other than my patio table. Truth is, there wasn't even that much in the grass. Basically same here. More dustings than I can count tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 36 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: Here was January’s snowfall totals...pretty comical. I’m at 3” for the season. Wow. I really don't get torqued about low/no snowfall in this area anymore (especially living S/E of the District), but...that is a sad map. I feel for those (NW MD, western VA, folks like @clskinsfan) who may have moved to those areas but aren't reaping the snow benefits of living there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Note that this is near the end hrs of the NAM nest's capability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 at this point ill definitely settle for a heavy sleeting or some ZR even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The drought may actually be in our favor for this one! Check out the gfs qpf trend! (more zr?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 21 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Note that this is near the end hrs of the NAM nest's capability. It’s Friday happy hour! Time to extrapolate our dusting of cold water........kill me now and make it painless. Pain can go to HE double hockey sticks and die. LOLz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: It’s Friday happy hour! Time to extrapolate our dusting of cold water........kill me now and make it painless. Pain can go to HE double hockey sticks and die. LOLz. You may want to read the latest afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I’d really like something to come around to the RGEM’s idea of having some light precip come through earlier on Sunday. Probably the only way to see snow in the Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d really like something to come around to the RGEM’s idea of having some light precip come through earlier on Sunday. Probably the only way to see snow in the Beltway. It looks like the precip on the NAM comes in late morning at best. I have noticed that precipitation seems to come in much later than often forecast. I have zero expectations for this event so whatever happens happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 WAA precip always gets in here much faster than forecast....Chapter 7 page 110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 This air mass is colder that originally oreducted i think the dew point is going to be like 24 at 6am Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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