clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So having the NS further NE is good? I guess it could help reinforce whatever cold air there is. This is a crappy setup regardless. And we need all of the cold help we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The shift on the 00z 12k NAM is similar to what the 18z GGEM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 NAM positive snow depth change is between .1 and .5". The Poconos get destroyed with 1-3" The sad part is the NAM is the best case scenario for us. I'd say this is a a no win. Not going to pull off a decent event with south winds at every level of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 GFS cut WAY back on the thump this run. An inch maybe for us out here. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Icon looking more NS dominant. lol at how this is trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 Here it comes where what little we had...even that gets taken away. It dosent want to snow this year. At this point...i would be shocked if we're not shutout in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I don't even start as snow on the gfs anymore. You all can keep tracking this. I'm not feeling it. Bob you have some legit reasons why it might stay southern stream dominant but my gut is saying the NS wins again and this ends up way to our north. But I've been awful lately so maybe that's a good thing. I'll be in philly celebrating the Eagles super bowl win anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Hail to the new King... King GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Icon looking more NS dominant. lol at how this is trending. GGEM and GFS now in agreement. The first NS wave that races NE is now dominant, a lot less precip for everyone. It is funny that models totally missed it until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Based on the hourly panels it looks like the 18z GGEM was an indicator of the 00z run. Drier but with the rain/snow line shifted SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Here it comes where what little we had...even that gets taken away. It dosent want to snow this year. At this point...i would be shocked if we're not shutout in February I pretty much wrote this off as soon as I saw the gfs trend towards another NS dominant low going to our north right at the exact time everything shifted all season. Yea the euro...but it's been awful and I don't care what the scores say. I'm not talking about the mean error on hemispheric pressure. I'm talking about the location of synoptic low pressures in our area. It's been a hot mess so choosing it over the model that's been better and is trending with the seasonal pattern didn't seem like a good play to me. The continued degradation doesn't shock me I gave up on this a while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The 00z runs are showing the northern low pressure race out farther ahead. If you look at hour 60 on the GFS, there's a new low pressure center near Montreal that wasn't there before. It eventually becomes part of an elongated low pressure area. The Ukie showed something similar last night. On the 12z NAM, the northern part of this area became dominant. That dried things out, but it also improved temps around here. Maybe those of us near I95 want the dominant low pressure center to continue shifting northward (or northeast), so we don't get as much wind from the south and hold onto temps a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 It is funny. The ggem is all snow. Never rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: It is funny. The ggem is all snow. Never rains Maybe one of the next 5 storms in the parade will work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Time to change the thread title from "slop" to "rain". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Time to change the thread title from "slop" to "rain". Then from rain to drizzle/scattered showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Then from rain to drizzle/scattered showers Then to Drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The GGEM shows one way we could still get something out of this, similar to what I was talking about above. Here are the last two runs. As the low center shifts, so do the 850 mb winds. Unfortunately the surface still isn't great. It's probably not going to happen this way, but it's something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Looks like more of a glorified fropa this is trying to trend towards. Seems to explain the colder air coming in faster behind the paltry precip depictions now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 euro is a disaster. its not even a storm anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I don't even start as snow on the gfs anymore. You all can keep tracking this. I'm not feeling it. Bob you have some legit reasons why it might stay southern stream dominant but my gut is saying the NS wins again and this ends up way to our north. But I've been awful lately so maybe that's a good thing. I'll be in philly celebrating the Eagles super bowl win anyways. Don't jinx it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Interstate said: Then to Drought Then to Surprise Blizzard Miraculously Saves The Entire Winter in the Mid Atlantic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Went to bed early last night. Didn't look at any of the 00z runs. Glad I did. Good grief. What a disaster...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Went to bed early last night. Didn't look at any of the 00z runs. Glad I did. Good grief. What a disaster...lol yeah. drier, warmer, weaker, NS dominant, doesn't want to snow, dogs and cats living together, chaos...the usual. We shuffled the deck and ended up with a pair of 3's. At least our last hand featured bitter cold. I do think we shuffle again but not sure what we'll get. Pair of 4's maybe. Shouldn't have opened those damn blinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Really looking forward to this one. Should be awesome!!11! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 4 hours ago, WeatherShak said: Don't jinx it! If the patriots need some comment from a weather weenie on a message board as motivation then they have problems. I'm not a superstitious person. The team that plays better will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the patriots need some comment from a weather weenie on a message board as motivation then they have problems. I'm not a superstitious person. The team that plays better will win. I don't really have a dog in the fight per se...heck, I'm from Cleveland originally and the Browns embarrassed the world going 0-16! But I just cannot stand the Patriots at this point, and am rooting for the Iggles (I believe that's how they say it up on Philly?) for what it's worth! Pats are really good obviously, but they skated past a possible upset in last year's Super Bowl (thanks to lousy coaching by the Falcons, really), and squeaked out this year's AFC championship. They're not quite the same juggernaut and are beatable, but you just have to finish them off and not let them back in it. I'll give them that much, they don't quit no matter what the score. But I think the Eagles can do it actually. Sorry to get way off-topic and banter, but hell, what else to discuss in this thread right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 54 hour RGEM will save us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 34 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 54 hour RGEM will save us! Its trending. Toward something. The teleconnections favor a more positive negative result that will largely be positively negatively positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Its trending. Toward something. The teleconnections favor a more positive negative result that will largely be positively negatively positive. Riding the RGEM horse all the way to Snowville! Let’s do this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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