Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, MD Snow said: At this point, I don't want to see models getting worse. The 18z ICON does not look to be getting worse through 66hrs. 850's look slightly better out in front and the NS seems a little less dominant. I know some have discussed their disliking for the icon as of late, but it really has been quite solid over multiple runs now, whereas some of the other model suites have jumped around. I really hope this can overperform for everyone on here, myself included. I’ve been jonesing for some snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Icon and euro are both 50 miles away from a good hit in the close burbs. Down the rabbit hole we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I know some have discussed their disliking for the icon as of late, but it really has been quite solid over multiple runs now, whereas some of the other model suites have jumped around. I really hope this can overperform for everyone on here, myself included. I’ve been jonesing for some snow this year. Actually the icon looks fairly similar to 12z Euro today in regards to the rain/snow line and snow amounts. Icon generally isnt very good so not sure if that's a good thing..l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Actually the icon looks fairly similar to 12z Euro today in regards to the rain/snow line and snow amounts. Icon generally isnt very good so not sure if that's a good thing..l Ninjaed by Bobchill...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Ninjaed by Bobchill...lol Very similar solutions at not very long leads. Gfs doesn't look like it's going to let go of the dominant northern low. Stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Very similar solutions at not very long leads. Gfs doesn't look like it's going to let go of the dominant northern low. Stubborn. or correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very similar solutions at not very long leads. Gfs doesn't look like it's going to let go of the dominant northern low. Stubborn. Yea. Not sure what to think. Its solution sucks and it's not getting any better. Pretty good model battle going on now. 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: or correct Might be but I'll take the euro over the gfs every time something approaches from the south. That's an easy odds play. Gfs still drops some snow through much of the region west of 95. Only reason it's not better is boundary is warm by 18z. Something like that can change. Especially if precip is heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very similar solutions at not very long leads. Gfs doesn't look like it's going to let go of the dominant northern low. Stubborn. But yet with my minimal knowledge I know the gfs sucks in these types of setups. Always hangs on to the primary way longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Actually the icon looks fairly similar to 12z Euro today in regards to the rain/snow line and snow amounts. Icon generally isnt very good so not sure if that's a good thing..l I felt like busting @stormtracker b*lls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Might be but I'll take the euro over the gfs every time something approaches from the south. That's an easy odds play. Gfs still drops some snow through much of the region west of 95. Only reason it's not better is boundary is warm by 18z. Something like that can change. Especially if precip is heavier. Euro was a nice front end dump here and had temps falling back to near freezing Sunday morning when the heavier precip moves in. The GFS is just frustrating. 537 thickness with moderate to heavy precip falling at 72h, 850s at -3 in early February and the surface is 40 degrees ! I know which one I am hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just so we're all on the same page, euro and gfs aren't that much different but the subtle difference in strength of the northern low screws up our marginal airmass quicker on the gfs. That's happening no matter what it's a matter of when and not if. That small difference has big implications. Especially for the closer burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just so we're all on the same page, euro and gfs aren't that much different but the subtle difference in strength of the northern low screws up our marginal airmass quicker on the gfs. That's happening no matter what it's a matter of when and not if. That small difference has big implications. Especially for the closer burbs. So I felt like the gfs improved maybe a little at 18z? Although it looked like it kind of lost its pep with getting precip in here quicker. Kinda catch 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Euro was a nice front end dump here and had temps falling back to near freezing Sunday morning when the heavier precip moves in. The GFS is just frustrating. 537 thickness with moderate to heavy precip falling at 72h, 850s at -3 in early February and the surface is 40 degrees ! I know which one I am hugging. Actually Euro/ICON/CMC vs GFS right? At least you have multiple-choice hug options.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 30 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I felt like busting @stormtracker b*lls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: Actually Euro/ICON/CMC vs GFS right? At least you have multiple-choice hug options.... Correct. My gut says the gfs corrects the NS low and helps the mid levels tonight or tomorrow morning and may bring a few SE crew to get a little action. All other models are subtly doing so. Wouldn’t take much to help many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 This appears to be a very marginal event highly dependent on urban heat island and elevation controls for snow outcomes that will range from trace in larger urban areas to 1-2" in higher rural locations (2-4" in mountains). Still some time for it to develop better dynamics but it just hasn't got much energy, it is trudging along without much organization or focus. Sort of like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, MountainGeek said: Actually Euro/ICON/CMC vs GFS right? At least you have multiple-choice hug options.... I don't know what the ICON is. Is that last year's DWD ? The thought of cozying up to the Canadian feels kind of cheap and trashy. Honestly, if tonight's ECMWF doesn't stray too far from its past four runs, I will be feeling pretty confident of seeing my heaviest snowfall of the year in 60 hours. Has to top 1.5" but I think cold doesn't get scoured out of this valley before that much can fall. Even the 18Z GFS leaves open that possibility verbatim with the early precip. Hoping for some improvement as we close so more of the forum can get in on some Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I don't know what the ICON is. Is that last year's DWD ? The thought of cozying up to the Canadian feels kind of cheap and trashy. Honestly, if tonight's ECMWF doesn't stray too far from its past four runs, I will be feeling pretty confident of seeing my heaviest snowfall of the year in 60 hours. Has to top 1.5" but I think cold doesn't get scoured out of this valley before that much can fall. Even the 18Z GFS leaves open that possibility verbatim with the early precip. Hoping for some improvement as we close so more of the forum can get in on some Sunday. ICON is on TT now -- it's got some snow for us, that's all we need to know to hug right? I'm basically in the same boat with you, anything over 1.5" will be the event of the year so far. Really hoping this one trends favorably for all, we're way overdue for something to break our way for once. Not sure @clskinsfan can handle adding yet another EPIC DUSTING to the log. I do like our odds given that the GFS is sort of on its own right now with the less optimal handling of the northern piece, plus the Euro's tendency to do a better job with southern stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: NWS fairly bullish for Sunday here...p+c has 90% pops for snow..pretty unusual for 60 hours out. I'm fairly certain NWS zone forecasts are automated to some degree based on model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 I'm still not sure how reliable the 06z and 18z runs of the GGEM are, but the 18z GGEM is better than 12z for I95. Bob gets his quick onset and over 0.2" qpf falls as snow along I95, with the shutout line well SE of I95. Less than 0.05" falls as rain along and west of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, cae said: I'm still not sure how reliable the 06z and 18z runs of the GGEM are, but the 18z GGEM is better than 12z for I95. Bob gets his quick onset and over 0.2" qpf falls as snow along I95, with the shutout line well SE of I95. Less than 0.05" falls as rain along and west of I95. not sure how reliable they are but the 00z GGEm and the 12z GGEm are the worst models ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: not sure how reliable they are but the 00z GGEm and the 12z GGEm are the worst models ever RPM? JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Through 42hrs, the 0z NAM seems to be keying in on the NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Through 42hrs, the 0z NAM seems to be keying in on the NS. At 60 the NS is way NE of the previous runs. Odd look. Probably bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Nam is low on the list of guidance I have confidence with Sunday but with that being said....I'm totally good with what the 12k just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nam is low on the list of guidance I have confidence with Sunday but with that being said....I'm totally good with what the 12k just did. 1-2 inches of snow and sleet... though a few i81ers might not like that blank circle nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nam is low on the list of guidance I have confidence with Sunday but with that being said....I'm totally good with what the 12k just did. So having the NS further NE is good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 hours ago, Chris78 said: Ninjaed by Bobchill...lol Get used to it. He does to me all of the time. 0Z NAM wants to make an ice storm out of it. it cuts down on the front end thump. Interesting change from the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So having the NS further NE is good? Nothing that technical...gives my yard 1-2". Don't care how it gets there. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.