clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 OK. So we lose the upper levels out here for about 4 or 5 hours after a pretty decent 2-4 front end thump on the GFS. Then dry slot. The CMC is basically the same but has the dry slot come in a little bit sooner so less rain. CMC would be a snow to drizzle to dry slot type deal. Either solution would be my biggest of the year regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:00 PM, mappy said: Pivotal weather and Tropical Tidbits allow you to do the same too, FYI. So really whichever site you prefer. Expand Don't forget the oldies but goodies like Twisterdata! They're the first free third party site I can remember to offer model soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 3:53 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It’s basically doing what every other storm has done which is trend somewhat flatter. It makes you feel the Wednesday storm will almost certainly do the same. The problem is that was such an epic cut job on the overnight runs it has a ways to go to get better Expand trends of the season for the win!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 4:50 PM, mappy said: GFS is pretty ugly for my backyard, as of right now. By 12z I'm sitting at 32 at the surface, 33-34 at 850. Expand I know... but you should see how it looks for the rest of us. I just meant to say that you guys are in the best position for this event (except for the far west crew). But I'd be surprised if even you guys saw much more than a couple of inches before the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:11 PM, pasnownut said: trends of the season for the win!! Expand What makes thing one extra complicated is that there are 2 discrete pieces. One north and one south. We need the northern one to be flat/weak/fast and it also needs to steal some juice from the southern piece because it's frontside only with a rotting airmass. We don't do complicated well but this isn't just complicated. It's EXTRA complicated for our snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:14 PM, cae said: I know... but you should see how it looks for the rest of us. I just meant to say that you guys are in the best position for this event (except for the far west crew). But I'd be surprised if even you guys saw much more than a couple of inches before the changeover. Expand My expectation is a half inch on the grass/mulch. 42 at home now, under clouds. so maybe that will help. I dunno. I'll take whatever falls, of course. eta: ahh dammit. I'm in the wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Will try again: For the Sunday threat expectations are still low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:15 PM, Bob Chill said: What makes thing one extra complicated is that there are 2 discrete pieces. One north and one south. We need the northern one to be flat/weak/fast and it also needs to steal some juice from the southern piece because it's frontside only with a rotting airmass. We don't do complicated well but this isn't just complicated. It's EXTRA complicated for our snow chances. Expand Agreed. Been hoping the gfs was just just ampin up the NS vort and that seasonal tendencies to flatten things out a bit would help to save critical levels as we get closer. Still not convinced but I’m surely not throwing in any towels as Time is still on our side but we are starting to narrow goalposts imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:30 PM, pasnownut said: Agreed. Been hoping the gfs was just just ampin up the NS vort and that seasonal tendencies to flatten things out a bit would help to save critical levels as we get closer. Still not convinced but I’m surely not throwing in any towels as Time is still on our side but we are starting to narrow goalposts imo. Expand Keep it simple. We'll mostly like have at least a marginal column until 18z Sunday. Just root for as much precip to make is here before then as possible. Doesn't matter too much how it happens. We just need as much as possible. Longitude seems to be more important than latitude this go around too. With that being said, my bar is firmly set at 2 hours of snow falling with sticking optional. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 whats causing the low to develop up in ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 @Bob ChiII I don’t think it’s unattainable to see an earlier onset if southern steam is more dominant (just not too dominant as alluded to several days back). My goal is for every flake we can get and hopeful stickage and then drizzle snizzle at precip moves out. We need the region as cold as possible for the next challenge in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:32 PM, Bob Chill said: Keep it simple. We'll mostly like have at least a marginal column until 18z Sunday. Just root for as much precip to make is here before then as possible. Doesn't matter too much how it happens. We just need as much as possible. Longitude seems to be more important than latitude this go around too. With that being said, my bar is firmly set at 2 hours of snow falling with sticking optional. lol Expand but the 540 line runs east to west on the GFS...almost perfectly straight...wouldn't that mean its a north south emphasis without CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:46 PM, pasnownut said: @Bob ChiII I don’t think it’s unattainable to see an earlier onset if southern steam is more dominant (just not too dominant as alluded to several days back). My goal is for every flake we can get and hopeful stickage and then drizzle snizzle at precip moves out. We need the region as cold as possible for the next challenge in line. Expand lol who is bob chiii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:48 PM, BristowWx said: but the 540 line runs east to west on the GFS...almost perfectly straight...wouldn't that mean its a north south emphasis without CAD Expand Insitu CAD typically (but not always) means the higher elevations to the west or areas banked up against the mountains will be the last to flip. That + onset to the west first = less favorable for folks to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:18 PM, mappy said: Will try again: For the Sunday threat expectations are still low! Expand Half an inch on grassy surfaces is probably a good call for this one too. That's the seasonal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 5:51 PM, Bob Chill said: Insitu CAD typically (but not always) means the higher elevations to the west or areas banked up against the mountains will be the last to flip. That + onset to the west first = less favorable for folks to the east. Expand Roger. Thanks. Still like being north of the 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Slight shift east on the euro. Not good for my yard but winchester scores a couple of inches of potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 6:15 PM, Bob Chill said: Slight shift east on the euro. Not good for my yard but winchester scores a couple of inches of potatoes. Expand yep...we just need to trend a bit more in the next 60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 euro has the low about 1000 miles away from where the GFS puts it? looks like ill be going with a blend of the euro and the cmc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 6:16 PM, Ji said: yep...we just need to trend a bit more in the next 60 hours Expand 50-75 miles would be pretty good but it's going to be like the longest yard trying to get that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 6:17 PM, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: euro has the low about 1000 miles away from where the GFS puts it? Expand No, they aren't that much different. Euro has consistently put more emphasis on the southern piece and the GFS is the other way around. Euro still has the northern low (and that's why our column gets roasted) but the dominant storm is the southern one. Seeing the euro so steady with this makes it easy to discount the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 6:20 PM, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: thanks. so whats your saying is, theres a chance? Expand A chance for some measurable snow before a flip to rain? yes. A chance at a good event for anyone outside of the mountains? Slim.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 6:20 PM, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: thanks. so whats your saying is, theres a chance? Expand even with a better track the NS is not going away and there is no high to north..but it would be better I think. but not too far south or we are stuck in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 If i had to forecast Leesburg...1 inch of snow...and a prolonged period of slop till about 3pm..and then drizzle/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 6:25 PM, Ji said: If i had to forecast Leesburg...1 inch of snow...and a prolonged period of slop till about 3pm..and then drizzle/rain Expand Seems about correct and realistic at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 6:25 PM, Cobalt said: Seems about correct and realistic at this point. Expand actually that sounds awesome. I wont be that lucky but would take half that just to avoid epic disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 On 2/1/2018 at 6:22 PM, Bob Chill said: A chance for some measurable snow before a flip to rain? yes. A chance at a good event for anyone outside of the mountains? Slim.... Expand Slim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 NAM is a little slower with the onset and cuts down the snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 geez...was hoping to come back to 5+ pages... the receding airmass is pretty cold. hopefully this is an overperformer. ground should be cold enough for some stickage at least in the burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 At this point, I don't want to see models getting worse. The 18z ICON does not look to be getting worse through 66hrs. 850's look slightly better out in front and the NS seems a little less dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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