Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Lets discuss this latest upcoming fail in this thread. Hopefully we get a quick thump before the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 lets hope this is snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: lets hope this is snow 850s would suggest snow. but I am sure there is a warm layer in there and not quite adept at interpreting the soundings. If it is snow its razor close maybe west of the fall line. now the fact that it appears further SE is at least a step in the right direction IMHO. EDIT: 2m temps look ok as well from what I observed. we are dealing with a rotting airmass so it needs to be quick and dirty and then done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: lets hope this is snow heres the sounding for you at that time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 850s would suggest snow. but I am sure there is a warm layer in there and not quite adept at interpreting the soundings. If it is snow its razor close maybe west of the fall line. now the fact that it appears further SE is at least a step in the right direction IMHO. EDIT: 2m temps look ok as well from what I observed. we are dealing with a rotting airmass so it needs to be quick and dirty and then done. Just saw the 12z step back in the right direction SE. Pleasant suprise, but still some work to do. Hoping it works out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, mappy said: heres the sounding for you at that time... Looks close to sleet/zr but possibly mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Just saw the 12z step back in the right direction SE. Pleasant suprise, but still some work to do. Hoping it works out for us. I think it will work out for your location. looks dicey SE of there. but still the bleeding stopped for the next 30 minutes or so. and its the 12k NAM so I am not getting too excited other than it wasn't a disaster. That's my new benchmark...not expecting a great outcome but avoiding a complete disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I think it will work out for your location. looks dicey SE of there. but still the bleeding stopped for the next 30 minutes or so. and its the 12k NAM so I am not getting too excited other than it wasn't a disaster. That's my new benchmark...not expecting a great outcome but avoiding a complete disaster. I'm not feelin fuzzy yet, but to your point, I may see a little something. I dare say we still have time for a couple subltle moves to bring some of us out of hiding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks close to sleet/zr but possibly mangled flakes. Probably sleet... maybe could sneak in snow if there were rates lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Probably sleet... maybe could sneak in snow if there were rates lol sleet/snow is fun...sleet/rain is not unless its 20F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, yoda said: Probably sleet... maybe could sneak in snow if there were rates lol Yea, that sounding is right on the bubble. Above freezing layer is fairly shallow and looks like +1-2 tops. Big dendrites would survive the fall. Little ones would turn into something other than flakes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 NAM bufkit indicates ZR/IP for areas west 95 and ZR for the cities and immediate burbs during this time frame. Places NW of the fall line have the ZR/IP signal with flakes mixing in out toward JYO as well during Sunday morning. HGR actually has all snow for a time before flipping to ZR/IP mix. Could be a pretty nasty day out by 81 to start if the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: NAM bufkit indicates ZR/IP for areas west 95 and ZR for the cities and immediate burbs during this time frame. Places NW of the fall line have the ZR/IP signal with flakes mixing in out toward JYO as well during Sunday morning. HGR actually has all snow for a time before flipping to ZR/IP mix. Could be a pretty nasty day out by 81 to start if the NAM is right. Yea, it's messy. lol. Good thing I'm hugging the ICON until something better comes along. 12z GFS trending ever so slightly colder in the mids. Hopefully that translates to a smaller disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, that sounding is right on the bubble. Above freezing layer is fairly shallow and looks like +1-2 tops. Big dendrites would survive the fall. Little ones would turn into something other than flakes. lol Would kill for a high to the north this setup. It's almost something more interesting if the cold air was a bit more pronounced to start, or if we had a high in place. Bufkit was nasty Sunday morning for areas on a line from Leesburg/Clarksburg/Westminster to the NW. 81 might be interesting. I could see places rotting near 32/33 during most of any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Shocking- GFS is losing the dominant northern low idea. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Shocking- GFS is losing the dominant northern low idea. lol Isn't that what you suggested last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Shocking- GFS is losing the dominant northern low idea. lol It’s basically doing what every other storm has done which is trend somewhat flatter. It makes you feel the Wednesday storm will almost certainly do the same. The problem is that was such an epic cut job on the overnight runs it has a ways to go to get better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Isn't that what you suggested last night? I wasn't buying the big amped NW track. It was on its own and the seasonal trend has been to flattern through the mid range. 12z is doing just that. There is a northern low. I'm not suggesting it's going away. I'm just saying that I don't believe the northern and southern pieces are going to consolidate into one big NW tracking gully washer. The 2 features will likely be less amped and come in flatter. How that works for us is dicey. Especially my yard. Western folks are no doubt the better area on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 If we apply the NAM temps to the GFS precip...my yard gets 1-2" easy. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I wasn't buying the big amped NW track. It was on its own and the seasonal trans has been to flattern through the mid range. 12z is doing just that. There is a northern low. I'm not suggesting it's going away. I'm just saying that I don't believe the northern and southern pieces are going to consolidate into one big NW tracking gully washer. The 2 features will likely be less amped and come in flatter. How that works for us is dicey. Especially my yard. Western folks are no doubt the better area on this one. Correct me if I am wrong, but that secondary low off our coast does make a big difference in how long we stay snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The other problem is Great Lakes low is crapping up the temp profiles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Shocking- GFS is losing the dominant northern low idea. lol What am I missing. It still has a low going north of us or at 69 is my brain now mush. Still looks like southerly flow between the Altantic high and the Ohio and then PA low. Maybe not dominant just for snow, crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: The other problem is Great Lakes low is crapping up the temp profiles. . The SW winds on the NAM above the low level inversion are running into the 60's, so the WAA around the layer between 925-800mb is pretty prolific, so we'll undoubtedly see a shift to liquid precip type during the day on Sunday. Beneath the cap, winds are much lighter out of the south and south-southwest, so the surface takes its time rising through the day, which is why I think areas out near 81 might struggle to get much above freezing with this one, leading to a more prolonged frozen precip event, albeit, likely in the form of ZR/IP after the initial start from snow. I will try to post some bufkit soundings from both NAM and GFS after I'm done forecasting at my job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, usedtobe said: What am I missing. It still has a low going north of us or at 69 is my brain now mush. Still looks like southeasterly flow between the Altantic high and the Ohio and then PA low. Maybe not dominant just for snow, crushing. I probably said it wrong. The GFS showed a consolidated system tracking west yesterday instead of 2 weaker but distinct waves (one south and 1 north). That's what I referring to. I'm not suggesting there is any way to stay all snow. The airmass in place is rotting and getting attacked. That part hasn't changed at all. The only thing that can keep that intact for a longer period of time is to back off on the strength of the northern piece. It's ugly. I'm not putting lipstick on anything. I just didn't buy the gullywasher west tracks yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I dont have the soundings. But we never lose the 540 line out here. Looks like a snow to ZR then dryslot type of deal out this way. I would be fine with that in this horrid winter in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 GFS got a little colder (from 06z), GGEM a little warmer. It looks like they're converging towards one of those I95-cutoff mappy-psu-jackpot events. ICON shows something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I dont have the soundings. But we never lose the 540 line out here. Looks like a snow to ZR then dryslot type of deal out this way. I would be fine with that in this horrid winter in all honesty. COD Met has soundings available http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ can switch between Severe and Winter just hover your area, left click to produce sounding, right click to specify type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, cae said: GFS got a little colder (from 06z), GGEM a little warmer. It looks like they're converging towards one of those I95-cutoff mappy-psu-jackpot events. ICON shows something similar. GFS is pretty ugly for my backyard, as of right now. By 12z I'm sitting at 32 at the surface, 33-34 at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, mappy said: COD Met has soundings available http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ can switch between Severe and Winter just hover your area, left click to produce sounding, right click to specify type. Thanks for this link Mappy! This is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Thanks for this link Mappy! This is awesome! Pivotal weather and Tropical Tidbits allow you to do the same too, FYI. So really whichever site you prefer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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