February Banter Thread

[Ji]

Jb write book

https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Chronicles-Inconvenient-Revelations-Gore/dp/1983509388

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Flu shot is something like 10-20% effective. Doubt it’s mind games.

 

Maybe both teams will get so sick that they'll let any other two teams play so I have someone to root for.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Flu shot is something like 10-20% effective. Doubt it’s mind games.

Wow, I honestly never knew that. Im not a flu shot guy myself but for an assortment of other reasons. Are those numbers proven/factual?

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Flu shot is something like 10-20% effective. Doubt it’s mind games.

Wow, I honestly never knew that. Im not a flu shot guy myself but for an assortment of other reasons. Are those numbers proven/factual?

https://www.skepticalraptor.com/skepticalraptorblog.php/2017-flu-vaccine-effectiveness-facts/

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Jb write book

https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Chronicles-Inconvenient-Revelations-Gore/dp/1983509388

lol omfg. What a damn nut.

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

Jb write book

https://www.amazon.com/Climate-Chronicles-Inconvenient-Revelations-Gore/dp/1983509388

I suppose I should have a copy laying around in case I run out of toilet paper. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I'm sorry to keep bringing this up, but what happened in December is keeping me up at night and I'd like to talk to someone here about it.  I'm told I saw things others didn't and that is concerning to me.  I know something weird is up.  I need reassurance please.

[Ralph Wiggum]

40 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I'm sorry to keep bringing this up, but what happened in December is keeping me up at night and I'd like to talk to someone here about it.  I'm told I saw things others didn't and that is concerning to me.  I know something weird is up.  I need reassurance please.

What did you see? What was it? Was it in the upside down?

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What did you see? What was it? Was it in the upside down?

What I see now is my family thinks I'm mentally ill!

[Mrs.J]

I do not want to crap up the discussion thread for tomorrow so will ask my question here. We are supposed to head over to Round Hill, VA tomorrow around 9:30 to feed at the barn. And trying to get a handle on the projected conditions for driving. The family that owns the property lives on site so if we cannot make it they will feed. And they want Safety first.  I just need to try to figure out when I should make the call that we will not be able to drive over. 

[RevWarReenactor]

22 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 I would reserve historic  for the 1/10 years we get 30"+ region wide. I would say good.  Actually I never used any adjective at all I just quoted facts and numbers and YOU labeled them historic. 

These are facts...based on statistics. Not my opinion. 

If you average DCA snowfall the last 30 years it's about 15". 

The two winters you mentioned rank 5 & 6 on DCA snowfall in the last 30 years.  

So only 4/30 years were more. 

Thats 13%. 

So dc only gets more snow then that 13% of the time. 

Those are all facts. And that's what I said. Then you made inferences and generalizations and attacked me with those not what I said which was just a list of factual data.  Thanks for the straw man argument but no thanks  

I'm not sure what your issue is with those facts.  You also don't seem to understand some things about statistics 

1.  I don't know who told you it was 17".  I don't care.  Nws uses 30 year means for climo.  Less is susceptible to anomaly and longer is susceptible to changing climo.  The current 30 year mean is 15".  Here is my source.  Look for yourself.  

2. Averages change every year.  When D.C. Updates theirs in 2020 unless we get more then about 30" of snow in the next two years it's going to drop.  They use 30 year means for climo because that's a good snapshot to see today's climo without too small a sample.  The 1980s were a pretty good decade and when they drop off next year D.C. mean is going to drop to 14" or so.  Right now using the last 30 years it's close to 14" unless this year turns around fast.

2. Average/mean, normal, and mode are 3 different things.  For example let's say out of 30 years 26 of them we get exactly 8". Then the other 4 years we get 100". Our mean would be 20". But 20" isn't a normal winter. 8" is. 8 is by far the most likely outcome. But 1/9 years we get a fluke huge year. The mean is skewed. Now I exaggerated a bit to illustrate but that's what's going on.

3.  DC mean might be 14 or 15 or 17 or whatever but by far the most likely outcome for winter is between 0.1 and 13.6".  Unless this year goes on a heater only 6 of the last 30 years D.C. Had more than 13.6". 80% of the time D.C. had 13.6" or less. Of those 80% of years the mean is 10.5".  And right now 15 years finished with less and 14 more. This year could make it even 15/15 if we get over 10.5". So 10.5 seems to be a "normal" winter. The most likely outcome. Not the same as average. 

Those are all facts.  That's not my perception or what I think or my feelings. Those are the snowfall statistics for D.C.  You are confusing average and normal or most likely. Not the same thing. A normal D.C. Winter is about 10". Anything between 5-13" honestly falls within 70% of years so that's our normal range. 

You can keep expecting 17" if you want but factual statistics say that will only happen 20% of the time. Do what you want with the numbers though. 

Thanks for the analysis, it is very good.

It boils down to, climo is not an accurate representation of the snow we get.

 

See, the way I look at averages is, half the time its below, half the time its above. Isn't that what an average is? If you are saying that only 20% of the time we get average, well then quite simply, ITS NOT AN AVERAGE, and needs to be adjusted accordingly. I think that is why people have unrealistic expectations, what is advertised as an average, is WRONG.

 

But even that aside, I still think you are wrong on this being "normal".

If DC ends up with below 4 inches for a season total (which I think is a very real possibility) that will mean that 4 winters of the 11 winters we've had since 1887 that ended up with under 4 inches; have happened since 2012.

That is historically bad.

[H2O]

Welcome to the nexus of hell that is trying to get Mdecoy to see another point and accept that over his own erroneous notions

[MillvilleWx]

54 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

I do not want to crap up the discussion thread for tomorrow so will ask my question here. We are supposed to head over to Round Hill, VA tomorrow around 9:30 to feed at the barn. And trying to get a handle on the projected conditions for driving. The family that owns the property lives on site so if we cannot make it they will feed. And they want Safety first.  I just need to try to figure out when I should make the call that we will not be able to drive over. 

Looking at everything, I think I would play it safe here. The main thoroughfares should be fine, but out that way, the cold air will be tough to erode and might not occur until early in the afternoon. This event could sneak up on people that live northwest of the fall line. The further to the NW you go, the longer the wedge might hold out. My advise would be to stay back this go around. I'm always, "Better safe than sorry." I've had the sorry route before, and it sucks. Hope that helps

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Flu shot is something like 10-20% effective. Doubt it’s mind games.

Wow, I honestly never knew that. Im not a flu shot guy myself but for an assortment of other reasons. Are those numbers proven/factual?

In a normal year the flu shot is ~60% effective. This year it's closer to 10-20%. They have to predict which strains are likely to be the main threats. They can't vaccinate for them all. Time restraints. Plus a strain can mutate. So there are limitations to how effective they are and some years are less effective than others. This year is bad. 

Its still better than nothing. And exposure to the vaccine can help a flu infection be less severe if your body has learned to make antibodies to a similar strain. But this years shot isn't nearly as effective as we would like. I can attest to that.  I had the shot and got the flu and it nearly killed me. But I have asthma and am prone to complications from something like that. 

Either way don't take it lightly this year. Doctors do their best but everyone is different and they can't put 2 million people in the hospital just because we know a few thousand of them will develop life threatening complications. They send you home and play the odds. 

But know how you feel and pay attention to kids. If something seems wrong don't take chances. Better safe then sorry. Ask them to make sure. They can test for signs of complications. Chest x-Rey and blood tests can catch a blood infection or developing pneumonia which are 2 of the leading causes of death with flu.  Be especially observant with children who might not express themselves.

I would rather waste 100 days sitting at the dr or ER over nothing then risk losing someone I love and living with that. 

[WeathermanB]

NAO forecast to go negative sometime after Feb. 15, which there could be a window for a coastal between Feb. 18 - the end of Feb

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

Thanks for the analysis, it is very good.

It boils down to, climo is not an accurate representation of the snow we get.

 

See, the way I look at averages is, half the time its below, half the time its above. Isn't that what an average is? If you are saying that only 20% of the time we get average, well then quite simply, ITS NOT AN AVERAGE, and needs to be adjusted accordingly. I think that is why people have unrealistic expectations, what is advertised as an average, is WRONG.

 

But even that aside, I still think you are wrong on this being "normal".

If DC ends up with below 4 inches for a season total (which I think is a very real possibility) that will mean that 4 winters of the 11 winters we've had since 1887 that ended up with under 4 inches; have happened since 2012.

That is historically bad.

I'm sorry I was a bit of an arse about it. We have had a few more really awful years in the last 10 then normal.  I think the current amo and nao phase combo isn't a good one.  Climo is all of that though climo doesn't just mean average. 

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

See, the way I look at averages is, half the time its below, half the time its above. Isn't that what an average is? If you are saying that only 20% of the time we get average, well then quite simply, ITS NOT AN AVERAGE, and needs to be adjusted accordingly. I think that is why people have unrealistic expectations, what is advertised as an average, is WRONG.

 

Wait, is this what's also causing the issue? You just described the median, not the mean. Average usually means the mean. Multiple people have said already that using the median probably gives a better sense of snowfall climatology than using the mean. 

Edited to add: The median snowfall at DCA for the past 30 seasons is ~11”.

[Mrs.J]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Looking at everything, I think I would play it safe here. The main thoroughfares should be fine, but out that way, the cold air will be tough to erode and might not occur until early in the afternoon. This event could sneak up on people that live northwest of the fall line. The further to the NW you go, the longer the wedge might hold out. My advise would be to stay back this go around. I'm always, "Better safe than sorry." I've had the sorry route before, and it sucks. Hope that helps

Thank you. I was thinking that it was better to play it safe and will let the family know accordingly. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

42 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Wait, is this what's also causing the issue? You just described the median, not the mean. Average usually means the mean. Multiple people have said already that using the median probably gives a better sense of snowfall climatology than using the mean. 

Edited to add: The median snowfall at DCA for the past 30 seasons is ~11”.

To add some thought, how often does the median actually occur?  No single statistical measure is ever good enough.  It appears that many of the 10" to 16" seasons are all centered close between the average and median imo.

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Thank you. I was thinking that it was better to play it safe and will let the family know accordingly. 

No problem. I don't mess around with ice at all. This is one of those setups where I can see areas west of Rt 15 struggling to get much above freezing. Just stay in and stay warm for SB Sunday

[Mrs.J]

34 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

No problem. I don't mess around with ice at all. This is one of those setups where I can see areas west of Rt 15 struggling to get much above freezing. Just stay in and stay warm for SB Sunday

Yea same here. I grew up driving in snow in OH, but I have a respect for ice. 

[CAPE]

Sipping on a Boulevard Whiskey Barrel Imperial Stout. I really like this beer a lot. I honestly like it better than BCBS, and its a less hard core version of DF Head WWS.

It really is pretty damn awesome.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I have a feeling about tomorrow's system!

[Bob Chill]

@C.A.P.E.

Installed the magnaflow exhaust on my truck today. Took about 2 hours. Hardest part was getting the old stuff out. Lol. Pb blaster and an impact driver is a must but it's not that hard of of job. Used copper permatex to seal the compression fittings. Everything bolted in nice and tail pipes perfectly aligned. 

Sounds freekin amazing. I went with the 24" muffler because I'm not a kid trying to annoy people. Barely louder than stock with light touch on the pedal but when you get in it...oh man, that's how these trucks are supposed to sound. Just buy it and do it. Worth every penny. 

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@C.A.P.E.

Installed the magnaflow exhaust on my truck today. Took about 2 hours. Hardest part was getting the old stuff out. Lol. Pb blaster and an impact driver is a must but it's not that hard of of job. Used copper permatex to seal the compression fittings. Everything bolted in nice and tail pipes perfectly aligned. 

Sounds freekin amazing. I went with the 24" muffler because I'm not a kid trying to annoy people. Barely louder than stock with light touch on the pedal but when you get in it...oh man, that's how these trucks are supposed to sound. Just buy it and do it. Worth every penny. 

Awesome. Nice job. I bet it does sound nice, and thats what I like- pretty quiet when you are driving like granny, but when you nail it, you get the great sound. I've been tempted about 5 different times lol. I always find something else to spend the money on. How is it when the MDS kicks in? Any drone? I would turn it off either way when you get the tuner. I found it to be totally annoying, and fuel economy is only marginally worse with it off on my rig. I have never once been tempted to turn it back on lol.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Awesome. Nice job. I bet it does sound nice, and thats what I like- pretty quiet when you are driving like granny, but when you nail it, you get the great sound. I've been tempted about 5 different times lol. I always find something else to spend the money on. How is it when the MDS kicks in? Any drone? I would turn it off either way when you get the tuner. I found it to be totally annoying, and fuel economy is only marginally worse with it off on my rig. I have never once been tempted to turn it back on lol.

MDS sounds like a louder version of stock. Lol. A few extra angry hornets in the nest. Just a little drone between 1500-1800 rpm. Not annoying at all. 

I have ramps and all the tools and go to Cambridge often in the spring. I like working on vehicles. If you get a bolt on kit I'd stop by and do the work with you. I actually consider it fun. Lol. 

My kit was cheap. 300 shipped from mufflex performance. All stainless including the extensions. Perfect fit. No idea what kits mufflex has for the srt8 but they are very reputatable. I personally wouldn't do cat back if just looking for tone. Much cheaper and easier to install. I like the bolt on because I can switch back to stock in my driveway if I sell the truck at some point. 

[nw baltimore wx]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Sipping on a Boulevard Whiskey Barrel Imperial Stout. I really like this beer a lot. I honestly like it better than BCBS, and its a less hard core version of DF Head WWS.

It really is pretty damn awesome.

Nice. We spent the afternoon at the Heavy Seas oyster fest. It's so nice that they give you a 6 oz glass when you walk in because your are able to sample alll their beers without getting wrecked. But, to my surprise, they had the greater pumpkin available so my plan was partially thwarted. What a great beer.

And now I'm getting ready to open one of my Christmas presents in the hopes of bringing home some morning snow. Firestone Walker Velvet Merkin Outmeal Stout.

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Nice. We spent the afternoon at the Heavy Seas oyster fest. It's so nice that they give you a 6 oz glass when you walk in because your are able to sample alll their beers without getting wrecked. But, to my surprise, they had the greater pumpkin available so my plan was partially thwarted. What a great beer.

And now I'm getting ready to open one of my Christmas presents in the hopes of bringing home some morning snow. Firestone Walker Velvet Merkin Outmeal Stout.

 

I LOVE that beer. Another of my more recent finds and new favs. Wish I had one now lol. Enjoy it!

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

MDS sounds like a louder version of stock. Lol. A few extra angry hornets in the nest. Just a little drone between 1500-1800 rpm. Not annoying at all. 

I have ramps and all the tools and go to Cambridge often in the spring. I like working on vehicles. If you get a bolt on kit I'd stop by and do the work with you. I actually consider it fun. Lol. 

My kit was cheap. 300 shipped from mufflex performance. All stainless including the extensions. Perfect fit. No idea what kits mufflex has for the srt8 but they are very reputatable. I personally wouldn't do cat back if just looking for tone. Much cheaper and easier to install. I like the bolt on because I can switch back to stock in my driveway if I sell the truck at some point. 

Is this the kit you have? Damn that is pretty cheap.

https://www.mufflex-performance.com/41-jeep-grand-cherokee-srt8

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Is this the kit you have? Damn that is pretty cheap.

https://www.mufflex-performance.com/41-jeep-grand-cherokee-srt8

I don't have true duals. Y-pipe off the headers split back to 2 outlets off the muffler. My kit was the dod24m so basically a magnaflow muffler with 2 stainless mandrels welded on the outlets to make up for the shorter muffler. 

That kit looks like a straight muffler delete. Would be a breeze to install honeslty. Prob take 90 mins and it would ROAR. Let me know when to come over. LOL.