February Banter Thread

[Sparky]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I will keep that in mind next time we need window work done...

BTW I finished up some analysis of our local snowfall climo using the closest operating coop data for any given season going back to 1893.  124 years of records.  The most recent 12 being mine of course...thought you might find this interesting.  I'll post it here since @losetoa6 @showmethesnow and others in the general area might find it interesting also.  

Here is the breakdown of years that fell into each category

under 10"   3 years      2%

10-20         18 years    15%

20-30"        29 years    23%

30-40"        36 years    29%

40-50"        19 years     15%

50"+           19 years     15%

Breaking it down by 5" increments by far our most likely outcome for snow is between 30-35".

Here are our chances of having more then a given amount in any given year

10"     98%

15"     93%

20"      83%

25"      70%

30"      60%

35"      41%

40"      31%    

45"      23%

50"      15%

These numbers give a far better indication of a typical winter up here then "average" which is skewed by the 80" plus winters we get every 8 years or so.  The mean might be around 40 but a typical winter is anything between 20 and 40".  The frequency goes way down below and above those numbers.  I tend to set my fail bar at 20" since 8/10 years we pass that.  And my "good winter" bar at 30" since we have a 60 percent chance of that any given year.  Keeps me relatively sane and happy most of the time.  

I don't really feel good about a winter unless I reach 30".

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Sparky said:

I don't really feel good about a winter unless I reach 30".

unless we get a sweet march bomb, not sure that is in the cards. at this point i just want to beat last years awful showing. 

[Vice-Regent]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How do I factor in the amount of time wasted reading your posts?

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

you guys are mostly dead.. I observe people in real life, my mother just walked across the room holding a grudge for no reason at all, not saying a single word then left. there is absolutely nothing wrong. the behavior on here is bizarre, after my post in the LR thread there was 1 member reading thread, me. It has 33,400 views in February and it's going to snow tomorrow

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

you guys are mostly dead.. I observe people in real life, my mother just walked across the room holding a grudge for no reason at all, not saying a single word then left. there is absolutely nothing wrong. the behavior on here is bizarre, after my post in the LR thread there was 1 member reading thread, me. It has 33,400 views in February and it's going to snow tomorrow

no offense Chuck, but I am pretty alive and well. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

This could be one of the more difficult forecasts of the winter!

[Jandurin]

15 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

you guys are mostly dead.. I observe people in real life, my mother just walked across the room holding a grudge for no reason at all, not saying a single word then left. there is absolutely nothing wrong. the behavior on here is bizarre, after my post in the LR thread there was 1 member reading thread, me. It has 33,400 views in February and it's going to snow tomorrow

there's another thread

[psuhoffman]

 

[Bob Chill]

22 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

This could be one of the more difficult forecasts of the winter!

No too tough. Guidance has converged nicely. Take local knowledge/climo into account and the forecast is fairly straight forward. T-2" in DC and south and east (urban baltimore too) with minimal road disruption. 1-3" in NoVa and close N and W burbs of DC with possible road accums but not the main roads. 2-4" in the climo favored colder areas like Leesburg/WV panhandle/FDK/baltimore close burbs. 3-5 across higher elevations of MoCo/HoCo/FDK/Carroll/Baltimore counties. That's my best guess. LWX will prob be similar but might be more conservative. 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'm open to discuss my comment further in banter, lets get the thread back on track. My apologies for my involvement in the off-topic discussion. 

Come on can't we discuss the discussion about what we should discuss a little more. 

38 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Need that baro to build in. Gotta have it like 30.20+ by 2pm or rain trouble brewing. Not worried about 37F+ in the afternoon if baro is  stout because if so dews will be low and evaporational  will be 33-50% of spread and not a tepid 20-25%

It's good to know general guidelines of past results based on pressure and other standards but these things aren't firm rules. Not ever pressure is the same. Source region of air. Time of year. Dynamic cooling. Barometric pressure gradient. All those things change the exact results a given pressure will yield. It's great to start from a baseline of what typically occurs but using those formulas like gospel isn't a good idea either. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No too tough. Guidance has converged nicely. Take local knowledge/climo into account and the forecast is fairly straight forward. T-2" in DC and south and east (urban baltimore too) with minimal road disruption. 1-3" in NoVa and close N and W burbs of DC with possible road accums but not the main roads. 2-4" in the climo favored colder areas like Leesburg/WV panhandle/FDK/baltimore close burbs. 3-5 across higher elevations of MoCo/HoCo/FDK/Carroll/Baltimore counties. That's my best guess. LWX will prob be similar but might be more conservative. 

That's pretty much what I'm thinking right now 

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No too tough. Guidance has converged nicely. Take local knowledge/climo into account and the forecast is fairly straight forward. T-2" in DC and south and east (urban baltimore too) with minimal road disruption. 1-3" in NoVa and close N and W burbs of DC with possible road accums but not the main roads. 2-4" in the climo favored colder areas like Leesburg/WV panhandle/FDK/baltimore close burbs. 3-5 across higher elevations of MoCo/HoCo/FDK/Carroll/Baltimore counties. That's my best guess. LWX will prob be similar but might be more conservative. 

That's pretty much dead on with my forecast for the area. I'd say 4-7" up by the MD line with our northern tier brethren potentially sneaking toward the top end of range. If precip comes in like models are depicting, it's going to be a great evening. If not, then it'll bust pretty bad and this forum will become unbearable for a while. I'm surprised how much guidance convergence we have right now. Hope they aren't under doing the thermal layer or over-producing precip. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

That's pretty much dead on with my forecast for the area. I'd say 4-7" up by the MD line with our northern tier brethren potentially sneaking toward the top end of range. If precip comes in like models are depicting, it's going to be a great evening. If not, then it'll bust pretty bad and this forum will become unbearable for a while. I'm surprised how much guidance convergence we have right now. Hope they aren't under doing the thermal layer or over-producing precip. 

The only reason I don't think the northern tier will crack 6" is because it would require higher than 10:1 ratios and no wasting of stickage at all. With that being said...if an area gets 6-7" I won't be surprised at all....unless it's my yard...lol. That would shock me. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

The only reason I don't think the northern tier will crack 6" is because it would require higher than 10:1 ratios and no wasting of stickage at all. With that being said...if an area gets 6-7" I won't be surprised at all....unless it's my yard...lol. That would shock me. 

Yeah. I with you if my yard eclipses 4-5" lol. I agree with your sentiments on the 6+ for up there. Just thinking that if anyone in this forum jacks, it will be Losetoa, Highstakes, PSU and Mappy. NAM going ham was a good start to HH btw. Cheers

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I'm sure at another time it will make sense

[mappy]

My poor mom, she has Terp tickets tomorrow night and no idea what to do. I of course don't want her driving to College Park at 630 if its snowing its ass off, but she is a grown woman and can make her own choices. 

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

My poor mom, she has Terp tickets tomorrow night and no idea what to do. I of course don't want her driving to College Park at 630 if its snowing its ass off, but she is a grown woman and can make her own choices. 

If she really needs to watch a turtle play w/ a basketball.........

 

[showmethesnow]

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

My poor mom, she has Terp tickets tomorrow night and no idea what to do. I of course don't want her driving to College Park at 630 if its snowing its ass off, but she is a grown woman and can make her own choices. 

Or........

 

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, Newman said:

What's your guy's total snowfall totals so far this year? I know I've heard you guys are having a dismal year but was just wondering how bad. Hopefully you can cash in on tomorrow's storm!

DCA is at 3.1" on the year. Pretty sure Dulles is close to 5" (they got 4" from the early Dec storm), and BWI is closer to 6". I'm at 5" on the year. 

[Jandurin]

I'll show turtle videos to my kiddo and see his response.

[Cobalt]

LOL that animation is creepy as hell

[Mordecai]

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

DCA is at 3.1" on the year. Pretty sure Dulles is close to 5" (they got 4" from the early Dec storm), and BWI is closer to 6". I'm at 5" on the year. 

I’m at 4.5” and we’re pretty close location wise. Hope I get to see the best event tomorrow. 

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

I’m at 4.5” and we’re pretty close location wise. Hope I get to see the best event tomorrow. 

If I manage to top 6" for the year once this event is over (getting at least 1"), I'm fine with whatever happens the rest of the winter. I'm already pretty locked in with my final grade for the winter (D-), unless we get a rocking March, or we get an awful bust 

[H2O]

Just got home, 3 day weekend and opened a Port City Downright Pilsner.

[H2O]

oh and gonna watch olympic curling 

[Mordecai]

7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

If I manage to top 6" for the year once this event is over (getting at least 1"), I'm fine with whatever happens the rest of the winter. I'm already pretty locked in with my final grade for the winter (D-), unless we get a rocking March, or we get an awful bust 

It’s funny. My expectations went from having a decent blizzard once a year to now being pretty excited for possible 2-3 inch event. I’ve learned my lesson of living in mid atlantic now after a few years

[Jandurin]

Yeah, growing up here, the big storms were a surprise - not taken for granted.

You'd go whole winters waiting for snow to get you out of school that never came.

[Cobalt]

13 minutes ago, Mordecai said:

It’s funny. My expectations went from having a decent blizzard once a year to now being pretty excited for possible 2-3 inch event. I’ve learned my lesson of living in mid atlantic now after a few years

I like to put my expectations at one winter storm warning per year. Verifying or not. Either way, it means there was something meaningful to track. Double digits is a good year. 

[87storms]

gonna try my friend's lemon drop hops.  if it's anything like lemon drop shots, i'm in.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Showme...that's some weird arse video. Where the heck did you dig that up..  Lol

Thats actually not too weird. You wanna see something that is beyond weird, actually disturbing, check this out.