NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’d consider chopping off a toe for the RGEM to be correct Wouldn't even consider it. Would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 That would be an amazing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: I hope you all get crushed with snow this weekend. I'm heading up the mountain to find Winter. Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 hmm what are the odds we end up in that gap between bands? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 This is why the SREF's are completely useless...they contain members that are so horribly over and under amplified they skew the mean all over the damn place. These are from last night but look at the ARW (usually over amplified) and the NMM (always under). One has central PA thinking "its coming" and the other has no storm at all anywhere. LOL. How a "mean" derived from those two means anything is beyond me. Saying this because there are some who should know better still posting SREF output on twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 So I am going to absolutely, 100% confirm I’m the snow bad luck charm. The one time I go to SW PA they are forecast to barely get anything and my home is in 4” contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 References to other storms might be better here imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 thanks for sharing @nw baltimore wx the roof on our house was brand new when we bought, but our siding has issues in spots, specifically in the back where we get the west winds head on. there are definitely locations where its loose and we can feel the air coming into the house, especially around the outlets and where the floor/walls meet. will keep Highstakes in mind whenever we are ready to move forward on getting them fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 and we def need new windows, badly. @HighStakes do you do custom bay window stuff too? we have one in the front of the house that is so old and would need to be completely redone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, mappy said: and we def need new windows, badly. @HighStakes do you do custom bay window stuff too? we have one in the front of the house that is so old and would need to be completely redone... Who needs windows? Just board those babies up and side over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 All the talk the other day about sun angle, warm ground, etc... for this upcoming storm got me to thinking. All this rain (it's droughty rain by the way) is just saturating the ground. It's going to be locked into the upper soil surface as it freezes tonight. Then tomorrow, just before the storm hits, it's going melt once again as we get above freezing. All that moisture is going to evaporate back into the air and screw our dew points on the surface all up. So I hope you all like cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 lol as the euro is running you throw the towel in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: lol as the euro is running you throw the towel in psst... banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Jandurin said: lol as the euro is running you throw the towel in I didn't say it was rational thinking. Thanks for reminding me, I need to go check the Euro to see how much snow I are going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 You guys are getting close to being shut down with thermals looking like that. Northern Eastern Shore got shut out, they were doing good yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 getting shut down is what we're good at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: getting shut down is what we're good at I'd rather be 100% out instead of shut down unexpectedly. This winter is the worst one I've experienced living here. There was that March snowstorm I forget what year but DC was forecast to get 6-9" and ended with a slushy half-inch that got rained on towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 33 minutes ago, mappy said: and we def need new windows, badly. @HighStakes do you do custom bay window stuff too? we have one in the front of the house that is so old and would need to be completely redone... Yes, we do all types of window projects. When you're ready to get an estimate just pm me, I'll be happy to take a look. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: I'd rather be 100% out instead of shut down unexpectedly. This winter is the worst one I've experienced living here. There was that March snowstorm I forget what year but DC was forecast to get 6-9" and ended with a slushy half-inch that got rained on towards the end. Wasn't that even less than a year ago? Last winter was worse, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Yes, we do all types of window projects. When you're ready to get an estimate just pm me, I'll be happy to take a look. Thanks awesome, thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: Wasn't that even less than a year ago? Last winter was worse, regardless. I'd say it was warmer but warmer is not equivalent to bad. You need to factor in the amount of cloudy days and the amount of wasted cold etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Wasted cold or not, I saw less total snow and less days with snow than this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Do not have fun. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Northern tier has a legit shot at warning criteria. If I get a clean 3" then I'm more than satisfied. I'll break double digits on the year! woo! lol I really hope our whole area cashes in with a decent event tomorrow....then we get crushed with a snow bomb in March and then I can TROLL THE F out of all the people that have done nothing but whine and complain all winter about how historically awful this year was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 What's your guy's total snowfall totals so far this year? I know I've heard you guys are having a dismal year but was just wondering how bad. Hopefully you can cash in on tomorrow's storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Yes, we do all types of window projects. When you're ready to get an estimate just pm me, I'll be happy to take a look. Thanks I will keep that in mind next time we need window work done... BTW I finished up some analysis of our local snowfall climo using the closest operating coop data for any given season going back to 1893. 124 years of records. The most recent 12 being mine of course...thought you might find this interesting. I'll post it here since @losetoa6 @showmethesnow and others in the general area might find it interesting also. Here is the breakdown of years that fell into each category under 10" 3 years 2% 10-20 18 years 15% 20-30" 29 years 23% 30-40" 36 years 29% 40-50" 19 years 15% 50"+ 19 years 15% Breaking it down by 5" increments by far our most likely outcome for snow is between 30-35". Here are our chances of having more then a given amount in any given year 10" 98% 15" 93% 20" 83% 25" 70% 30" 60% 35" 41% 40" 31% 45" 23% 50" 15% These numbers give a far better indication of a typical winter up here then "average" which is skewed by the 80" plus winters we get every 8 years or so. The mean might be around 40 but a typical winter is anything between 20 and 40". The frequency goes way down below and above those numbers. I tend to set my fail bar at 20" since 8/10 years we pass that. And my "good winter" bar at 30" since we have a 60 percent chance of that any given year. Keeps me relatively sane and happy most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just outside Denver this morning and heading to the central CO mountains this afternoon for a leadership conference. Got a light coating last night, though areas to the south got a few inches. I love being out here. Have fun! I LOVE LOVE LOVE Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: I'd say it was warmer but warmer is not equivalent to bad. You need to factor in the amount of cloudy days and the amount of wasted cold etc. How do I factor in the amount of time wasted reading your posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: How do I factor in the amount of time wasted reading your posts? from two different accounts nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 38 minutes ago, mappy said: can we reminisce about past storms in another thread please? "this one time at band camp" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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