Jandurin Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 For me, I just want to know whether to expect weather so I can be prepared. This region sucks when you're caught by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Jandurin said: For me, I just want to know whether to expect weather so I can be prepared. This region sucks when you're caught by surprise. Don't expect much Winter cold anymore, the jet stream pattern has shifted north by about 150 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 LOL for the last month or so I've been thinking about this storm where I got stuck at my girlfriend's house in February that wasn't supposed to be that big (but I suspected more due to my own research) and ended up being crazy big. And I wondered why no one here ever mentioned it. Turns out you guys just call it PDII. It just kept snowing and snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 3 hours ago, mattie g said: This is at least the second time you’ve stated this in the last six months or so, and you’ve already “left” this forum once before. I’m no expert, but based on your post history you are obviously dealing with your own issues. I highly suggest you address them, and do whatever you need to do to achieve that end; I’m not sure hanging out on a weather forum is going to help you with that. Good luck to you. Seriously...good luck. I appreciate that and I am addressing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Had a dream last night where we were expecting a 6-10" storm, but we got dryslotted the whole time. Worst feeling ever lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Had a dream last night where we were expecting a 6-10" storm, but we got dryslotted the whole time. Worst feeling ever lol Last time I had a dream about snow was in late Dec 2015 where we got a huge storm that caked every surface in feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Had a dream last night where we were expecting a 6-10" storm, but we got dryslotted the whole time. Worst feeling ever lol I dream about snowstorms almost every other night. Dream about checking the forum too. Kinda sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I dream about snowstorms almost every other night. Dream about checking the forum too. Kinda sad. Not really. This hobby can get the better of us, and you cannot believe how happy I felt in that dream before the storm, and It felt like somebody punched me in the gut when I saw the radar in my dream and saw a heavy band of snow pivoting just 15 miles NW of me while I saw nothing outside my window. I guess it's just preparing me for what I should expect. Either way, dreaming about interests are normal. When I was a kid I'd have constant dreams about roller coasters or being in space and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 I don't believe I've ever dreamt about a snowstorm. I've dreamt about posting on forums before tho. And playing video games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jandurin said: I don't believe I've ever dreamt about a snowstorm. I've dreamt about posting on forums before tho. And playing video games. You're not missing out. I've woken up multiple times in the morning looking for my yardstick, only to see bare ground outside my window, and realize it was a dream. Felt half as bad as a storm bust. Little did I know that dream from 2015 would come true 1 month later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 10 hours ago, Interstate said: But it is big brother that created the weather models correct. They created an inferior product when it comes to the long range... 5+ days plus (50% of the time 3+ days). If you owned any product that was wrong 90% of the time, would you keep it out to the public? I would like to know... what is the accuracy of the models 5+days. I bet it cannot be that high. How many times this year alone has the ensembles flip within just one run... What happened to the great periods in December and February that ensembles were advertising... just to flip in a couple of runs. Others have already chimed in on this, but fwiw here's my 2 cents. 1) If you'd like to know what the accuracy of models 5+ days, you can find lots of verification scores here. There are other verification sites, but that's a good one. I've found that better understanding the verification scores across models and over time helps me interpret model output. 2) Regarding the ensemble flips, I think it's important to understand expectations. When many posters here say a period 5+ days out looks promising, they're usually comparing it to a typical winter day, in which we get zero snow. It means we have some chance instead of none. But yeah, the chance doesn't always work out in our favor. 3) It might seem like the ensembles are shifting around a lot because we talk about the GEFS a lot here, and they do jump around more than other ensembles. It's a well-known problem, and people are working on fixing it. If you keep that in mind though, it will help you set expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: The GFS run is troubling regardless of the other guidance. at least to me. its Tuesday I know. but this year its seems to lock on scenarios like a pit bull. and the other guidance gives in like a poodle Then I guess the GFS is the winner... move on to spring then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Ugh, here come the complainers and whiners when the "best model" GFS doesn't show snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 As Bob said, I'd rather it show cold and dry than rain. In terms of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Lol. It really can't get more ideal than the Canadian shows. I wonder what the chance of that solution is. Like 5%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Jandurin said: Lol. It really can't get more ideal than the Canadian shows. I wonder what the chance of that solution is. Like 5%? You were saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 WELL gosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Jandurin said: WELL gosh I was going to say less than 5% too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Let's worry about getting any snow at all before bringing up time of day. It's the weekend. I'll gladly stay up all night Let's worry about that other thing because you know why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 someone mentioned brewing their own beer... my buddy is getting into it. he brewed a chinook ipa the first time (with what seemed like a 85% alcohol content lol) and is now working on lemon drop hops. i've never been much of a beer drinker aside from 1 or 2 here and there, but it seems like an interesting little hobby. and i've definitely dreamt of weather before...snowstorms, tornados, etc. tornado dreams are a mix of cool and disturbing. i've also had weird instances where i wake up when it's storming and then hear the thunder lol. i have no idea what that's all about unless it's some kind of a weird dream/timing thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That's fast for the eps to be out! Yeah, its pretty nice. The EURO being slow to load the past couple days plus realizing that weathermodels.com has pretty much everything and more then WxBell for half the price kinda sold me. The navigation is really rough on mobile though. Kinda hard on PC too but I'll get used to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 GFS will be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2018 Share Posted February 13, 2018 Really wish there was less whining in the disco thread... guess that's prob bug reason why some aren't posting as much or at all in the disco thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 This setup almost reminds me of last winter when March just missed something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 56 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: This setup almost reminds me of last winter when March just missed something big. it was close. This is a few days before the sleet storm. Remember originally there was a west to east threat there under the blocking. But look at the 50/50. Way too suppressive. Then the blocking broke down and the sleet storm was about 12 hours too slow as the confluence relaxed. Also there was height falls pretty far west that in the end screwed our mid levels. There were lots of ways for one of those threats to work but we had no luck. But enough chances like that and you score eventually. The great winters are when that kind of setup repeats several times making it likely that at least one or two big storms hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Lol at the Craps tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Huh... funny when the GFS shows a hit, no posts from the complainers like earlier... weird Spoke too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I swear more of you than not seem to have a grudge on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I feel you Ji! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I haven't gotten 1" from an event since December. Anything more than that would be a win for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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