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February Discobs Thread


George BM

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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Coastal low pressure will rapidly intensify Friday into Friday night
off the New England Coast. Strong northwest winds are expected
across our area on the back side of the low. The strong winds will
combine with a saturated ground to pose a threat for tree damage.
Exact strength of the winds are uncertain because there is still
uncertainty as to how strong the low will be and how close to the
coast the low will develop. Either way...it will be windy and
damaging wind gusts are possible. The strong northwest winds will
usher in seasonably chilly conditions. A few showers are
possible...and there will be enough cold air for snow showers in the
mountains. For most areas any precipitation will be light...but an
upslope flow for locations along and west of the Allegheny Front
means that accumulating snow is possible.

...

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47 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

00z NAM now has widespread gusts into the 50s on Friday.  The globals were already in the upper 40s and 50s ranges.

The GFS is showing 50-60 kt winds in the mixing layer. Not sure how efficiently that would get transported down to the surface though. Bufkit 101 time.

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Increasing confidence about 99 percent of the rain in this upcoming "soaker", will miss much of N VA. It is basically a SE Special, there will be many frantic water rescues down there due to waterlogged ground with much more heavy rain falling on top of it. This system will transfer its energy to a massive Benchmark storm that will cripple Boston, much of the SNE region, and Maine with snow, while battering us mostly with strong gusty NW winds Friday night and Saturday. The Appalachians may enjoy a few inches of upslope snow as well.

The big story in DC with this particular storm will be strong wind gusts and wind damage mainly caused by falling trees. The strong cool advection will finally bring us back down to seasonable temps lol.

Of course, we wont get much rain. I like rain way too much. Thats why we wont get much more, than sporadic light drizzle.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Late, late, late, but here it is.

For the second consecutive Feb we had April. Average high was 52.5 degrees vs a normal of 46.7, a +5.8 above. Highest temp was 77.0 degrees on 2/23. Average low was 32.0 degrees vs a normal of 23.5 degrees, a +8.5 above. Lowest temp for the month was 8.4 degrees on the 3rd. The average temp for the month was 42.2 degrees, a +7.1 above average and into third place on warmest Feb's on my records, only trailing LAST YEAR'S 42.6 and 1990's 42.8 degrees. One record low max of 24.8 degrees set on 3rd, two new record highs, 74.3 on the 21st and 77.0 on the 23rd. Three new record warm minimums, 56.4 set on the 16th, 44.3 set on 22nd and 48.4 degrees set on 23rd. 4.93 inches of liquid fell for month vs normal of 2.59, a +2.34 above. Biggest one day event was on 11th with 1.63 inches, this also set a new daily rainfall record for the date beating the old mark of 1.12 (with 11.0 inches of snow!) in 1983. 2.5 inches of snow fell for the month, all on the 5th, had additional 6 days with T's of snowfall vs a normal of 7.5 inches, a -5.0 below. There were 6 dry days, 7 days with T's and 15 with measurable precip. Highest wind for month was 30 mph on two days, 3rd and 6th. 

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