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February Discobs Thread


George BM

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A 500 year Mayan Connection of moisture is now in place. A massive ridge will stay over the SE US. This will channel all of the rain well north of Dale City. If you live in the Midwest or in Pennsylvania, you better look out. Many waves of heavy rain will train over those areas until feet of rain will have accumulated. This is going to make the 1993 Floods look like child's play at the beach on a calm summer's day.

It wont be long before this situation is dominating the news cycle.

As is usual, our area will miss out completely, we will enjoy cloudy skies, occasional light drizzle. The NWS has been scrambling ferociously to catch up with the interplay between the massive river of moisture and the incredible SE Ridge that is sheltering us from feet of rain. Expect our rain forecasts to be revised gradually downwards, until we will end up with variable clouds and some light drizzle thru next Thursday.

We fail at rain a lot, and we often do so EPICALLY. This will be the case in the next 7 days.

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HOURS of watching the radar emphasizes the stark fact that the rain is moving northeast, then east well north of the region. This has been the case for the past 24-36 hours. That track is stuck. Rain will continue developing in Texas then moving NE up the track, then east well north of the DC region thru at least the next 5 days. We should get away safely with only some light sporadic drizzle.

None of the rain well west is moving east even a millimeter.

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Radar now indicates rain is all moving due northeast out of Texas. It will completely miss us in Virginia and even in Maryland. Weather for the next 7 days should be variable clouds with a 20 percent chance of a stray sprinkle or a stray couple droplets of drizzle. All of the forcing is well north of us and will remain there.

All that rain I was looking forward to today and this weekend into Tuesday just went poof!

I am sick with disappointment, especially when I consider all of the rain and associated flooding in Chicago that I will never get to partake of. Probability of precipitation is already trending sharply downward in Dale City. This is far worse, than missing a forecasted Archambault blizzard with 3 to 4 feet of anomalous snowfall here.

I am so good at this, damn I should of been a weatherman.

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The good news is I finally got to see some rain!!!!!!

I received about.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000003 inch worth of rain.

The BAD NEWS is the rain is moving northeast, training over the same areas, and once again, Dale City gets treated to variable clouds and 4-6 droplets of drizzle. It is not moving one millimeter east, not one! Someone built a track in the sky over the Midwest and all the rain is going  along that track. It never moves east. Nothing can change it. It will do this all winter, all spring and all summer!

You get used to it after a while.

Midwesterners get in on all the fun. First they get months of rain then in the spring they get all the severe.

We DO get our rightful share though, we get 4-6 droplets of drizzle and variable clouds and maybe some dense fog. The only thing I resent about the Midwest getting 78000 inches of rain every year is that we all have to feel so sorry for them when they get flooded and lose their homes. You'd never hear ME complain about losing MY home to a billion year flood in Dale City!

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16 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Picked up a whopping .15" of rain this week spaced out over 4 days.  Hope the river tributaries can handle all that runoff.

I got about.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000003 worth of rain. Everyone is heading for high ground because we are not sure the Potomac can handle all that runoff.

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50 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

0.62" overnight and pouring right now.  Up to 4.28" for February here, with 15 of the 25 days so far having measurable precip.

About the same here, 14 days with measurable, 7 days with a T and only 4 dry days so far. Sitting at 4.88 for the month here and it is currently still raining. Drought? LOL, I'll take a week of dry to let things wring out a bit.

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... and yet if you're like me you spent much of that time tracking what amounted to  ~0.2" in water equivalent of snow/sleet.

After being 49/50 for the last 12? hours it is now 54, perhaps that forecast high of 65, which according to the forecast discussion, was on the pessimistic side of guidance, is in reach

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Could you send any of that down to the Beltway? My god it really can be depressing to stare at low overcast for days on end. 

Yep that is how I had been feeling. I can take one maybe two days of overcast but past that I really struggle. Hope it clears out for you down there before the sun goes down. It is beautiful out!

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