MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 21z SREF plumes are up everywhere for the wave Up to 2.58 inches of snow for LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 inches on the SREF for HPN. Even Philly gets some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The Cobb Method is all Rain, with temps. 37 on the GFS, and all Rain and 35 on the NAM. In fact, the GFS output, which covers the next three possible events { 2/2 2/5 2/7 }is All Rain throughout. Even the SREF has a higher Rain probability over Snow probability for most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 0z Nam 32k and 12k are colder and wetter ( precip wise for Friday) Some snow for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: 3 inches on the SREF for HPN. Even Philly gets some snow. 3 inches of snow over 17 days isn't that impressive it is an incredibly long wave though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 7 hours ago, weatherbear5 said: 3 inches of snow over 17 days isn't that impressive it is an incredibly long wave though I'm talking about tonights wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Im shocked that no one is posting in this thread. Everyone gave up on winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 3z SREF still have 2-4 for the NYC area and areas to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Mt. Holly: Quote SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... Tonight, focus is on the cold front as it moves into our area. Models are in fairly good agreement of the timing of depicting the cold front moving through the region between 00 and 06Z (7PM and 1 AM EST). A secondary trough or cold front is also depicted moving through during the later half of the night (this feature is nearly coincident with the main cold front in the mid levels, 700 to 600 mb). Where the models disagree is when we are going to have the strongest cold and dry air advection, mesoscale lift (due to frontogenesis), and consequently, when we have the highest chance for precip. The majority of guidance depicts a solution where the main cold and dry air advection is with the initial cold front. Consequently, the window of opportunity for precipitation would end earlier and would favor less snow or sleet. The NAM on the other hand depicts limited cold and dry air advection before 09Z, and strong frontogenesis at 700 mb around the same time. This would favor a longer period of rain at the start, but precip would last longer through the night. For now, have gone closer to the first solution, but will be watching the high resolution models and upstream obs closely through the day. There would be a small chance for mesoscale banding with the NAM solution, but in general expect amounts to be less than an inch. Though this technically won`t reach winter weather advisory criteria anywhere, there is the potential for an impact on travel early Friday morning as any standing water could refreeze as temperatures drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 This is an 18 day wave as the Topic Header states ? 2/1 -2/18 Wave ? It should snow and accumulate at some point during those 18 days along the coast but we might have to wait till closer to day 18 - inland north of 1-80 will have a better chance earlier during the 18 day Wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: This is an 18 day wave as the Topic Header states ? 2/1 -2/18 Wave ? It should snow and accumulate at some point during those 18 days along the coast but we might have to wait till closer to day 18 - inland north of 1-80 will have a better chance earlier in the 18 day Wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 4 hours ago, Snow88 said: Im shocked that no one is posting in this thread. Everyone gave up on winter ? At best this is an hour or two of wet snow early tomorrow morning, rapidly ending just after sunrise. Not exactly an exciting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: At best this is an hour or two of wet snow early tomorrow morning, rapidly ending just after sunrise. Not exactly an exciting setup. car topper at best. Have to be well N and W to see anything remotely exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: car topper at best. Have to be well N and W to see anything remotely exciting. Where is the precip coming from? The 12z RGEM has less than 0.25" LE falling over most of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Where is the precip coming from? it's coming from the clouds...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: car topper at best. Have to be well N and W to see anything remotely exciting. I may not be far enough N for this one but do have to head up to Chatham tomorrow morning so may get to see a for real storm up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: it's coming from the clouds...... Who would have thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: I may not be far enough N for this one but do have to head up to Chatham tomorrow morning so may get to see a for real storm up that way. Hit a pretty good squall near saratoga a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Nam with a bit more precip, especially ENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam with a bit more precip, especially ENY notice the Pine Barrons in South Jersey and Long Island have the higher totals - also the hills of Northwest Jersey and of course Northeast NJ gets the usual coating...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The changeover to snow will probably occur earlier than most of the guidance is showing. So if we do end up with slightly more precipitation I can see some surprises. The precip changeover times appear way too late to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: car topper at best. Have to be well N and W to see anything remotely exciting. LI will see a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 almost looks like an elevation event on the NAM. More like something you'd see in March or early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Current OBS are cooler than modeled, wouldn’t surprise me if north of the City starts and stays snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 There will definitely be an inch of snow early in the morning (grassy areas). Enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 HRRR looks to reflect current observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Anthony could you name this to February 1-2, 2018 anafrontal wave or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 i have a hard time believing anyone in the city sees an inch with this. pavement should struggle to accumulate given a wet/mild start and marginal temps as its snowing. the 700mb frontogenesis is impressive but it's flying thru such that any 1 location would not see more than 1-2 hours of decent precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Current OBS are cooler than modeled, wouldn’t surprise me if north of the City starts and stays snow 12z gfs has okay precipitation. 2-4 is my call on my street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nam with a bit more precip, especially ENY looks good for Suffolk, think they win again with 2-4+ especially the eastern North Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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