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November/December/January below normal...how rare is that?


ChescoWx

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Assuming the temperature stays below 32 until midnight...here in Chester County Pa we will barely finish with a below normal January. This follows a below normal November and December. So how often have we had these 3 months below normal in the last 35 years (1983 - Present)?  The answer is this is the 8th such occurrence during the last 35 years. Working from the most recent below normal hat trick backwards: 2013/14 - 2002/03 - 2000/01 - 1995/96 - 1993/94 - 1986/87 and 1983-84. 

Now if February should also finish below normal temp wise - that would mark the 6th time with only 1983-84 and 2000-01 failing to follow up the Nov/Dec/Jan with a below normal February.

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I think even more impressive is the fact Dec and Jan were both BN despite the NAO being positive with zero dips into negative since Dec. 1st. I'm actually curious if we have ever scored back to back below average months in winter without a -NAO. If it has happened, it has got to be very very rare. I know it is easy to get cold without a -NAO but to have sustained cold and no torches without one very impressive. Many forecasters thought that the pacific would be why we saw a warm and below normal snowfall winter but it has been the pacific that is responsible for our cold and snow this year. Had it actually verified as transient(back and forth troughing/ridging in the west) as some were predicting, this winter could have truly been an all time stinker. But the -EPO and even the PNA has made this winter tolerable and on track to finish average or even slightly above average snowfall wise. We've gotten absolutely zero help in the atlantic. On the other end, ff we had gotten even a small period of -NAO or a transient back and forth between negative and postive we could have had an epic winter here due to how well we've done without any help on this side of the continent.

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