Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 24 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: You chose to ignore the seasonal performance I mentioned. GFS has played this EXACT game this season, showing a fuller southern snowfall extent that never came to fruition with the storm in December. You can’t fully discount a model simply because it doesn’t give your back yard the desired solution. The NAM has performed well in similar circumstances this winter in regards to placement and southern extent of accumulation. (The few we have had) With that being said, I have no idea how this will ultimately work out, but I would be willing to bet that the southern cutoff will be sharp. Kinda funny that 18z nam just came south more like GFS. I never said there wasn't going to be a sharp cutoff. With strong frontogenesis there typically is. I was saying nam was north of most guidance with its heavy snow axis. I never was discouning nam hence why in my last post I said it is possible but not likely. Not basing my decision off which model looks better for me. Just saying gfs has been more consistent with what it is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: 3km coming south a bit as well it looks like. Not seeing the 0.5"+ showing up anymore as well, so it's slowly moving more towards the other guidance. 18Z GFS coming in drier also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Finished with 1.6" here from this weekend snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: 18Z GFS coming in drier also. Wait on 0z runs. We will have a better sampling. But still a solid high end advisory on 18z gfs. GFS isn't as good as finding mesoscale banding either since it isn't a high res model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: 18Z GFS coming in drier also. Hopefully just a little blip. Wasn't expecting today's snow, so as far as I'm concerned we're about an inch ahead in the game. Tomorrow's system is moving quite quickly, so the precip it's dishing out will happen in a relatively short window. Should be a nice period of solid SN tomorrow, with maybe even a few brief periods of +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Looking to snowchase from Nashville, TN but not sure when/where to go. Was thinking central IL Tuesday or Indianapolis Wednesday. Any thoughts/guidance is appreciated. I would wait for a 6"+ snow if your heading up this way because this current system is not impressive at all maybe 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Hopefully just a little blip. Wasn't expecting today's snow, so as far as I'm concerned we're about an inch ahead in the game. Tomorrow's system is moving quite quickly, so the precip it's dishing out will happen in a relatively short window. Should be a nice period of solid SN tomorrow, with maybe even a few brief periods of +SN. Hopefully. This pattern is a tough call with these weak SW's rippling through. I feel for the mets. I'll take 1-3 at a time if it stays around and piles up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Enough blowing to make measuring a bit of a challenge, but I will say 2.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Got 0.3" of wet snow this morning, hoping for another inch or two this evening. No idea why IWX, ILN, and CLE aren't issuing advisories for the drizzle/freezing drizze->snow with a rapid temp drop to well below freezing and gusty winds causing blowing snow this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just now, OHweather said: Got 0.3" of wet snow this morning, hoping for another inch or two this evening. No idea why IWX, ILN, and CLE aren't issuing advisories for the drizzle/freezing drizze->snow with a rapid temp drop to well below freezing and gusty winds causing blowing snow this evening. Roads are dry as a bone around here with temps down to 25. The dry air in Central IN is eating up anything associated with the front. Radar returns have pretty much split to the north and south of us along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Roads are dry as a bone around here with temps down to 25. The dry air in Central IN is eating up anything associated with the front. Radar returns have pretty much split to the north and south of us along the front. It's been drizzling here most of the afternoon and roads are still wet, with a few sites reporting freezing rain or "mist" in western OH with temps below freezing. It looks like you should still see snow soon, but it's good roads dried out there before temps dropped, so perhaps some areas will avoid issues. I don't expect it to be as easy here where it continues to be drizzling (mixed with some small snow grains it times) with wet roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 RC with another killer write up in the AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I'm going ahead and calling for 3 inches in Des Moines. Definitely not quite a warning criteria event, but it's definitely fixin to snow. We could get lucky and end up in a narrow heavy band and get a lot more but the odds are always against that versus being for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 It's fixin to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I'm gonna go with 5-6" here. Kinda on the higher end, but I'm confident we'll be in/near the heaviest axis of snow which should help LSRs stay a bit on the higher side, much like the late December event, I see the heaviest axis of snow going in between CR and IC. Although I wouldn't be surprised to bust high, just depends on where that axis of heavy snow is. Some have it around here, others 25 or so miles to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 ILN just issued a WWA for entire CWA until 1am tonight. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wilmington OH 724 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-050600- /O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0005.180205T0024Z-180205T0600Z/ Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize- Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark- Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH- Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton- Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty, West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union, Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg 724 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow and freezing rain. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and a light ice accumulation are expected. * WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: ILN just issued a WWA for entire CWA until 1am tonight. Took 'em long enough. CLE sticking with an SPS. I've gotten a burst of snow surrounded by ZL here over the last hour and my parking lot and sidewalks are ice with a little snow on top. I don't mean to be too critical but this is a great situation for a WW.Y. ILN did do a great job with social media posts this afternoon (CLE mentioned it too but not as strongly) but I really think an advisory ahead of time would've been helpful. Going to have buzzed people heading out of Super Bowl parties into this in a couple of hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Multiple car pile up between piqua Ohio and Troy Ohio. I-75 shut down in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, OHweather said: Took 'em long enough. CLE sticking with an SPS. I've gotten a burst of snow surrounded by ZL here over the last hour and my parking lot and sidewalks are ice with a little snow on top. I don't mean to be too critical but this is a great situation for a WW.Y. ILN did do a great job with social media posts this afternoon (CLE mentioned it too but not as strongly) but I really think an advisory ahead of time would've been helpful. Going to have buzzed people heading out of Super Bowl parties into this in a couple of hours... We had a heavy burst of snow pellets with light freezing drizzle before that but now appears to be all snow with another heavy burst moving in soon. Everything turned white pretty quick right before that WWA came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 hours ago, OHweather said: It's been drizzling here most of the afternoon and roads are still wet, with a few sites reporting freezing rain or "mist" in western OH with temps below freezing. It looks like you should still see snow soon, but it's good roads dried out there before temps dropped, so perhaps some areas will avoid issues. I don't expect it to be as easy here where it continues to be drizzling (mixed with some small snow grains it times) with wet roads. Just after I posted that had to go to the store and it really started snowing for about 30 min but the roads were fine, no liquid. Been some really dry LL air around here since yesterday. Sounds like it definitely got messy to the east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Pretty close to the 1 inch expected and have mod/heavy snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Best snow of the system falling now. Big juicy dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Best snow of the system falling now. Big juicy dendrites. Coming down steadily here too. Looks like the heaviest precip is incoming from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 oh. That 00Z NAM is coming in pretty hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: oh. That 00Z NAM is coming in pretty hot Interesting how much it’s changed since 12z today. Came in line with global models interestingly enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 the 3km NAM especially upped totals by a few inches. Worth noting, because you'd think this would be the wheelhouse of the 3km, although the NAM in general has been rather flip-floppy with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Finished with about 3.5” here. Very wet snow, could push it all off the car roof in one big sticky slab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: the 3km NAM especially upped totals by a few inches. Worth noting, because you'd think this would be the wheelhouse of the 3km, although the NAM in general has been rather flip-floppy with this system. Interesting dual band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Wow, GRR must be thinking we'll get some good lake enhancement in West Michigan. Zone forecast has 5 to 8 inches in it for tomorrow afternoon/night. In the Advisory they issued, they mention localized areas of 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just got home, measured 3.8" for the day, not too bad all things considered. Solid event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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