hawkeye_wx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The HRW-NMMB/ARW sort of split the middle. Last night's 00z runs of those models had the entire event missing to the south of Cedar Rapids, so they came back to reality this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I think 3-5" is a very reasonable guess around here tomorrow. Could be some heavier amounts somewhere but a bit difficult to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Looks like heavy snow hit Milwaukee this morning, and there must have been some decent snow rates in Chicago. That looks like lake effect snow developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Wish I could lock in the new Euro. Nice 0.3" band from Hawkeye through here, and on towards Hoosierville. Would prob be a nice 4-5" swath, with even higher potential if LSRs actually worked out for once lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I take back my criticism of the advisory, at least for my county. Snow/wind combo is legit. Also, some people around here never did a final leaf cleanup so there have been leaves blowing around along with the snow which is kinda strange to see in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, Chinook said: Looks like heavy snow hit Milwaukee this morning, and there must have been some decent snow rates in Chicago. That looks like lake effect snow developing Some 6-8" reports in WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The Thursday-Friday system seems like a million years away after all these fluctuations we've seen with tomorrow's wave. Today's runs have shifted it a little further to the south compared to the past few days. Looks like it could be another decent thread the needle type of event for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I wish I saw the radar from 4-7am, because we must have had a good band. It appears I did better than much of the area. Picked up a solid 3.5" of wet snow. It was so pretty on all the trees, but most has since fallen off as it got drippy at 33-34F. Front about to move through with a rapid temp drop and more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The Thursday-Friday system seems like a million years away after all these fluctuations we've seen with tomorrow's wave. Today's runs have shifted it a little further to the south compared to the past few days. Looks like it could be another decent thread the needle type of event for somebody. Agree, some areas should do very well. Baroclinic zone/gradient may be even stronger than modeled, given the new snow cover over WI/IL today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 .....and Josh jackpots once again. Yeesh Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I've only been in Indiana since December but man the weather here is so boring compared to Georgia. The biggest snowfall I have seen this winter was 8" in Georgia ! I don't even think I've seen a decent rain event since being here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I've only been in Indiana since December but man the weather here is so boring compared to Georgia. The biggest snowfall I have seen this winter was 8" in Georgia ! I don't even think I've seen a decent rain event since being here. This winter is atypical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1.7" thus far at ORD with this weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Some narrow little snow squalls have developed on the back end of the main swath of snow. They show up quite nicely on the DVN radar. Very difficult to measure with the wind, but I'm guessing we have close to an inch of snow. Really wasn't expecting much today, so this is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Well this last storm performed right around expectations. We originally pegged at 5" for this storm. We ended at about that or maybe just a bit above. Definitely looks like winter again after last week's thaw. Looks like the rest of this week's activity is going to go to the south,but hey I'm happy we got some snow. I think this storm may have finally pushed us over 15" for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Really wasnt expecting much from today’s storm, but am now getting 1”+/hr rates and the grass is almost covered. Nice surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 For folks farther south around i-70, still looking like an inch or two from the front tonight and then maybe if we can will a little more of a south trend on tomorrow/nights 'clipper', we might get a little more. Our main show will be Tues/Wed with the southern piece cutting under us. Of course the monkey wrench in that is whether it continues the weakening sheared trend.... so what else is new. Can't discuss the early Feb hyperactivity without giving a negative shout out to the euro. Absolutely HORRENDOUS. Two days ago it had the Tuesday event dropping a foot of snow across nw OH and southern MI....now it's a moderate event across central and southern OH. The gfs may have flipped around on amounts and strength of the low, but it never waivered in it's placement of the area with best snow. Someone needs to put the euro out of it's misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Looks like the nam is a bit south 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Looks like the nam is a bit south 24 hours out. Also wider snow band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3km coming south a bit as well it looks like. Not seeing the 0.5"+ showing up anymore as well, so it's slowly moving more towards the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 This new NAM ain't exactly perfect, in fact its a little low on QPF a tad east from here, but it looks a lot better for us than the last two predecessors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 This is starting to come into range for the RAP which is looking like a southern solution close to recent consensus as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Time to break out the 39hr RAP! EDIT: Guess you can't post image URLs anymore. Here's the link for the above. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2018020415&plot_type=totp_t7sfc&fcst=39&time_inc=60&num_times=52&model=rr&ptitle=RAP Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=51&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t7&adtfn=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Time to break out the 39hr RAP! EDIT: Guess you can't post image URLs anymore. Here's the link for the above. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2018020415&plot_type=totp_t7sfc&fcst=39&time_inc=60&num_times=52&model=rr&ptitle=RAP Model Fields - Experimental&maxFcstLen=51&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t7&adtfn=1 Thank you for this. PIVOTALWX still posts the "traditional" one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM is getting into its sweet spot in terms of range, and at least for N IL, has done very well in terms of placement and southern cutoff for our two snowfalls of any substance. Go with the blend, with a heavy weight/ preference on NAM Just because nam is in its good range doesn't mean it is right. It is north of most consensus. Not saying it can't happen but just not as likely. Gfs has been very persistent on its swath with little wavering. We shall see. Today was a nice little surprise here. Looks like we got a half inch or so. Nice big flakes. It was rippin for a while. Pretty windy and low visability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 LOT just issued a WWA for the Monday event, calling for 3-5" over most of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Just because nam is in its good range doesn't mean it is right. It is north of most consensus. Not saying it can't happen but just not as likely. Gfs has been very persistent on its swath with little wavering. We shall see. Today was a nice little surprise here. Looks like we got a half inch or so. Nice big flakes. It was rippin for a while. Pretty windy and low visability You chose to ignore the seasonal performance I mentioned. GFS has played this EXACT game this season, showing a fuller southern snowfall extent that never came to fruition with the storm in December. You can’t fully discount a model simply because it doesn’t give your back yard the desired solution. The NAM has performed well in similar circumstances this winter in regards to placement and southern extent of accumulation. (The few we have had) With that being said, I have no idea how this will ultimately work out, but I would be willing to bet that the southern cutoff will be sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I've only been in Indiana since December but man the weather here is so boring compared to Georgia. The biggest snowfall I have seen this winter was 8" in Georgia ! I don't even think I've seen a decent rain event since being here. I warned you back before the Xmas event the weather around here can make you reach for a triple dose of Zoloft, especially riding the I 70 line lol. But don't judge it by the past couple of months alone. One of the reasons it makes you crazy around here is you might wake up to a surprise (18Z NAM is trying). The weather around here will make you nuts if you let it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 4 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Those downsloping winds really limited amounts in the GTA. Haha, 40" seems like a long shot, more like one inch at a time. . Almost similar to 95-96 per climate records. I don't think it's a long shot. 15" the rest of the way is all it would take, which in itself is below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Going with a general 0.25-0.3" of precip for here and the QC, I'll go with 4" for a first call. This is based on about a 15:1 LSR. Not gonna buy into the higher LSRs with the DGZ not being especially deep due to a few layers of temps above -12C (particularly in the 600-700mb zone). DGZ looks better/deeper north of here, but the trade off will be slightly less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.