TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Wow, you guys down in IL and IN sure did get into some warmer-than-expected temps. Stayed in the 20s up here with light to moderate snow much of the day. After a couple hour lull, it is snowing heavily with some good echoes upstream. If it snows at this rate much of the night, we will exceed 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 A little head scratching that LOT kept the advisory. Amounts just don't look that good, and can't really even attribute it to Super Bowl travel as the snow will basically be over by then. RC had an excellent writeup in the afd for Mon.The headline being issued for a marginal situation is what makes it difficult for the forecaster because canceling before it's even snowed is a tough call to make. Even though all signs point toward amounts being sub advisory, there's always that non zero chance it could hit the range in the advisory area.I also don't think that's gonna happen in this case but I'm not sure I would've handled it differently than my co-worker and good friend MTF. Another consideration is probably that it's "just an advisory" and there's still likely going to be some minor road impacts. Since I've been there and done that with bad headlines before, not going to be overly critical of the forecaster who issued the advisory, but I will say I was surprised it was issued and wouldn't have done it myself. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 38 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Temps seem to be overachieving ahead of the front for the 1,385,678th time. 43 MLI and 39 ORD. We were at 43 here, and a short burst of sprinkles knocked the temp quickly back to 37. Got pretty windy with the precip as well, probably due to the dry low-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 5 hours ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: 18z NAM came in HOT. The Nam seems to be taking quite a few vitamins today. The 00z run continues to juice up around the I-80 corridor from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, ams30721us said: The Nam seems to be taking quite a few vitamins today. The 00z run continues to juice up around the I-80 corridor from west to east. Be a solid consolation prize for a awful winter for those in central IA into N. central Il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Said it before, but I'm not sure what's up with the COD Kuchera maps. Seems overinflated, even compared to the one on Pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Said it before, but I'm not sure what's up with the COD Kuchera maps. Seems overinflated, even compared to the one on Pivotal. They are. Noticed that earlier in the season, I’d definitely side with the kuchera on pivotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Heavy snow right now. Really impressive. Haven't seen this in a few years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 It spit light snow off and on today but just a trace here. Dusting to as much as an inch north of Detroit however. Tomorrow I don't know what to expect as temps do look to hover in the 30s for much of the event then crash. Right now I'd say 2 to 3" with the best stuff north. What this winter has lacked in big moisture laden storms it has made up for with plentiful shoveling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Crazy how each model is holding firm to its solution. NAM continues to highlight I80 north for higher accumulation and GFS has it between I80 and I72. More spread the wealth. Also GFS angled it more nw to se versus nam which was more west to east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Said it before, but I'm not sure what's up with the COD Kuchera maps. Seems overinflated, even compared to the one on Pivotal.They are being fixed tonight. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Only measured 2" or so when I went out about ten minutes ago. There are mostly 3-4" totals nearby (besides places to the south like the airport) so I guess we're on the lower end of most nearby cities. Still look to get an additional inch or two I'd presume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Had some wet flakes and some ice pellets mix in with the light rain earlier this evening. Rain was light enough that nothing was measurable. Still a bit early to pinpoint amounts, but at this point feel pretty good about a nice 2-4" type event for this area (and the QC) Monday. The NAMs have been consistent in showing a narrow band of 0.5" precip potential along the main axis. Placement of that will likely vary between now and the event, so no need getting too worked up at this point at where that will set up. GFS looks like it would place that further to the south of where the NAMs have been showing it. Wherever that max band sets up it looks like 4-6" with isolated higher amounts are possible. NAM will probably eventually trend towards the GFS, so I expect the max band to end up tracking south of I-80 in subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Glad y'all are getting something. This ones gonna be laughable in these parts. Right at freezing and we can't even get a pinger lol. Model trends have roved the cut off north and south of me for the next week so it's white knuckle normal time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Its a snowglobe outside, snow has caked to the trees. It appears I had a heavy band with dendrites as I am already at 2.6" and a lot of nearby areas seem closer to 1.5-2. Could be a flash freeze when temps plummet this afternoon and the wet snow should turn powdery and blow and drift as winds kick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Is it just me, or does there seem to be a slight NW trend in the models with the Tues/Wed system? I know the Euro is an outlier, and has lost its credibility, but there seems to be something going on. Probably should stop following this until things are better samples tomorrow. 1" here in Toledo as of 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 what a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Had some wet flakes and some ice pellets mix in with the light rain earlier this evening. Rain was light enough that nothing was measurable. Still a bit early to pinpoint amounts, but at this point feel pretty good about a nice 2-4" type event for this area (and the QC) Monday. The NAMs have been consistent in showing a narrow band of 0.5" precip potential along the main axis. Placement of that will likely vary between now and the event, so no need getting too worked up at this point at where that will set up. GFS looks like it would place that further to the south of where the NAMs have been showing it. Wherever that max band sets up it looks like 4-6" with isolated higher amounts are possible. NAM will probably eventually trend towards the GFS, so I expect the max band to end up tracking south of I-80 in subsequent runs.Holding strong with stronger mid level wave and more northern path on 12z run.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Glad to see winter finally getting the memo. Nice refresher event for the North woods trails. Heavy coating down here. We don't dud to start Feb. Caravan of sleds traveling to the north woods of WI. as I headed back friday from a week up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Holding strong with stronger mid level wave and more northern path on 12z run. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Looks like even a bit further north than it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Looks like even a bit further north than it has been. Yep, north of 06z, could tell watching it roll out that it had a slightly stronger mid level wave. Even has a surface low reflection over MO.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 7 hours ago, Jackstraw said: Glad y'all are getting something. This ones gonna be laughable in these parts. Right at freezing and we can't even get a pinger lol. Model trends have roved the cut off north and south of me for the next week so it's white knuckle normal time If the 6z NAM is to be believed, I'm good for two 3" rounds of snow. But the reality is the has become a complete joke of a winter and model runs and forecasting. I say bring on Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The NAM is coming in dangerously north. It is the outlier of the other models, and would be surprised if the others trend to it however who am I to say. The NAM gives us ZERO snow, while the other models give us 6 inches. Weird being its only 24 hours away to start. It was discussed in AFD here about this being hard to predict by the system type's nature. But the NAM is BAD and has us in a total screw zone the size of the city as compared to the rest of the state over the next 3 days Let's talk about the 12z NAM. Tell us it will be OK ane be bullied out by the other model runs. It's what I need to hear, ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3km NAM even farther north than the 12km version. Either way, looks like a total non-event here for tomorrow. Win some, lose some. Did pick up close to 1.5" with the overnight snow, which was a surprise to me. Looking back at radar, there was a nice little tail that moved thru here in the wee hours. And finally, looks like the NAM is with the Euro on spreading lighter snows farther north than the rest of guidance, for the late Tue/Wed system. Though somehow, the good old NAM tries to whiff me to the north again, lol. Regardless, I'm kinda intrigued with that wave. May nothing at all locally...or may be a little something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 FWIW, 12z RGEM is not even as close to as north as the NAM twins...looks more like the other guidance. And thru 30 hours, the 12z GFS looks like it'll remain fairly consistent with its prior runs...maybe a smidge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: FWIW, 12z RGEM is not even as close to as north as the NAM twins...looks more like the other guidance. And thru 30 hours, the 12z GFS looks like it'll remain fairly consistent with its prior runs...maybe a smidge north. Split the difference and all things considered, especially the way the models have performed this winter, you have a fairly good consensus. Nail biter for the N and S fringe as always, but I think a cyclone to Hoosier line gets the biggest snowfall of their season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I'm handling tomorrow at LOT and largely agree with that thinking. FWIW 12z HRRR-x also favored more of a spread the wealth look. No matter how you slice tomorrow, gonna be a nightmare commute in the Chicago metro.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Picked up 6 inches, and still snowing, with this weekend event. Powder on the bottom, wet snow in the middle, and now the fluff on top. In regards to the NAM being north: after years of watching it, if the NAM shows a north trend, it is often on to something. I feel the NAM is better than other models when it comes to depicting Northern stream energy. It was the first one to catch on to this weekend's event being farther north. I say this after years and years of hoping "the NAM moves south" when a system is coming in up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Looks like about 2" here so far. Don't expect a ton of additional accums during the day as temps will be just above freezing. I find it hilarious that we're going to penny and nickel are way to a 40" winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Pretty nice novelty snow burst here in Davenport this morning. A nice little dusting, with decent flake size blowing around in the wind making it look very wintry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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