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Early February Hyperactivity


Stebo

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A little head scratching that LOT kept the advisory.  Amounts just don't look that good, and can't really even attribute it to Super Bowl travel as the snow will basically be over by then.  
RC had an excellent writeup in the afd for Mon.
The headline being issued for a marginal situation is what makes it difficult for the forecaster because canceling before it's even snowed is a tough call to make. Even though all signs point toward amounts being sub advisory, there's always that non zero chance it could hit the range in the advisory area.

I also don't think that's gonna happen in this case but I'm not sure I would've handled it differently than my co-worker and good friend MTF. Another consideration is probably that it's "just an advisory" and there's still likely going to be some minor road impacts. Since I've been there and done that with bad headlines before, not going to be overly critical of the forecaster who issued the advisory, but I will say I was surprised it was issued and wouldn't have done it myself.

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It spit light snow off and on today but just a trace here. Dusting to as much as an inch north of Detroit however. Tomorrow I don't know what to expect as temps do look to hover in the 30s for much of the event then crash. Right now I'd say 2 to 3" with the best stuff north. What this winter has lacked in big moisture laden storms it has made up for with plentiful shoveling here.

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Had some wet flakes and some ice pellets mix in with the light rain earlier this evening.  Rain was light enough that nothing was measurable.  

Still a bit early to pinpoint amounts, but at this point feel pretty good about a nice 2-4" type event for this area (and the QC) Monday.  The NAMs have been consistent in showing a narrow band of 0.5" precip potential along the main axis.  Placement of that will likely vary between now and the event, so no need getting too worked up at this point at where that will set up.  GFS looks like it would place that further to the south of where the NAMs have been showing it.  Wherever that max band sets up it looks like 4-6" with isolated higher amounts are possible.  NAM will probably eventually trend towards the GFS, so I expect the max band to end up tracking south of I-80 in subsequent runs.

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Is it just me, or does there seem to be a slight NW trend in the models with the Tues/Wed system?  I know the Euro is an outlier, and has lost its credibility, but there seems to be something going on.  Probably should stop following this until things are better samples tomorrow.  

1" here in Toledo as of 8am.  

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Had some wet flakes and some ice pellets mix in with the light rain earlier this evening.  Rain was light enough that nothing was measurable.  
Still a bit early to pinpoint amounts, but at this point feel pretty good about a nice 2-4" type event for this area (and the QC) Monday.  The NAMs have been consistent in showing a narrow band of 0.5" precip potential along the main axis.  Placement of that will likely vary between now and the event, so no need getting too worked up at this point at where that will set up.  GFS looks like it would place that further to the south of where the NAMs have been showing it.  Wherever that max band sets up it looks like 4-6" with isolated higher amounts are possible.  NAM will probably eventually trend towards the GFS, so I expect the max band to end up tracking south of I-80 in subsequent runs.
Holding strong with stronger mid level wave and more northern path on 12z run.

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7 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Glad y'all are getting something.  This ones gonna be laughable in these parts.  Right at freezing and we can't even get a pinger lol.  Model trends have roved the cut off north and south of me for the next week so it's white knuckle normal time ;)

If the 6z NAM is to be believed, I'm good for two 3" rounds of snow.  :P

But the reality is the has become a complete joke of a winter and model runs and forecasting.  I say bring on Morch.

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The NAM is coming in dangerously north. It is the outlier of the other models, and would be surprised if the others trend to it however who am I to say. The NAM gives us ZERO snow, while the other models give us 6 inches. Weird being its only 24 hours away to start. It was discussed in AFD here about this being hard to predict by the system type's nature. But the NAM is BAD and has us in a total screw zone the size of the city as compared to the rest of the state over the next 3 days

Let's talk about the 12z NAM. Tell us it will be OK ane be bullied out by the other model runs. It's what I need to hear, ok?

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3km NAM even farther north than the 12km version. Either way, looks like a total non-event here for tomorrow. Win some, lose some. 

Did pick up close to 1.5" with the overnight snow, which was a surprise to me. Looking back at radar, there was a nice little tail that moved thru here in the wee hours.

And finally, looks like the NAM is with the Euro on spreading lighter snows farther north than the rest of guidance, for the late Tue/Wed system. Though somehow, the good old NAM tries to whiff me to the north again, lol. Regardless, I'm kinda intrigued with that wave. May nothing at all locally...or may be a little something... 

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8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

FWIW, 12z RGEM is not even as close to as north as the NAM twins...looks more like the other guidance. And thru 30 hours, the 12z GFS looks like it'll remain fairly consistent with its prior runs...maybe a smidge north.  

Split the difference and all things considered, especially the way the models have performed this winter, you have a fairly good consensus. Nail biter for the N and S fringe as always, but I think a cyclone to Hoosier line gets the biggest snowfall of their season. 

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Picked up 6 inches, and still snowing, with this weekend event. Powder on the bottom, wet snow in the middle, and now the fluff on top.

In regards to the NAM being north: after years of watching it, if the NAM shows a north trend, it is often on to something. I feel the NAM is better than other models when it comes to depicting Northern stream energy. It was the first one to catch on to this weekend's event being farther north.

I say this after years and years of hoping "the NAM moves south" when a system is coming in up north.

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