ams30721us Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: The NAM went big for the Monday wave. Cycloneville jackpot. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk 49 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Yeah, I can't help get a bit excited about Monday. Latest nam has a 0.50" qpf stripe through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City to the QC. The snow could really pour down from midday to mid afternoon. If we can just lock this qpf and track in together with perfect middle-of-the-day timing, this could really be a nice little thump. 12z GFS is looking quite tasty too for Monday along either side of I-80! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: The NAM went big for the Monday wave. Cycloneville jackpot. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk NAM is a lot more north than GFS. Barely brings any accumulation down to I74. GFS has been pretty consistent and a bit further south with heavier snow swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Snowing moderately to heavily here right now. The RAP and especially HRRR just look very unimpressive with this system, but the other models are holding on to the idea of 5 to 8 inches for West-Central Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm actually thinking it could be a total miss for us to the southeast. It's funny how The Weather Network got people all hyped up about the potential for the biggest storm of the season - maybe 6-8" - and now it's totally fizzling. They are grasping at straws given they were calling for a snowier than average winter for us and are looking for something to deliver. Tremendously glad I steer clear of the social media aspect of weather "forecasting". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Tremendously glad I steer clear of the social media aspect of weather "forecasting". I agree. The mid-week wave continues to trend further SE and progressively weaker. Highlight of this winter! Pattern is just to progressive for any amplification to occur. I'd be surprised if we even get close to normal this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Seems like the 3Km NAM is further south than the 12km with that Monday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 LOT is going 3-5" here, but between timing of saturation and some temp concerns/questionable ratios early on, I think that is best case scenario. I am thinking maybe a couple inches. I do like Monday's prospects better, comparatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 ILX only saying 1-2in here. They'e going to be WAY off if GFS is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 LOT is going 3-5" here, but between timing of saturation and some temp concerns/questionable ratios early on, I think that is best case scenario. I am thinking maybe a couple inches. I do like Monday's prospects better, comparatively speaking.We just lowered range in WWA to 2-5", I think 5 is a stretch unless the lake enhancement really goes to town tomorrow. Lower end of the range (2-3") is probably reasonable. I do think it will snow pretty nicely tomorrow morning through early afternoon as the upper wave digs in with strong CAA ongoing. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 One of the best radar displays I've seen at the start of a snowstorm I can remember in awhile, looks like someone is going to get a few hours straight of moderate to heavy snow in Southern Wisconsin. NWS radar showing a dry pocket but I think that might just be interference from the NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said: One of the best radar displays I've seen at the start of a snowstorm I can remember in awhile, looks like someone is going to get a few hours straight of moderate to heavy snow in Southern Wisconsin. NWS radar showing a dry pocket but I think that might just be interference from the NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan office. I was under those returns for about an hour before seeing any actual flakes. MKX's AFD explains why: ... Dry low level air to our south will continue to pump into southern Wisconsin today and should limit snow at TAF sites during the day today. Expect to see a lot of returns on radar, but little in the way of snow reaching the ground until later this afternoon. Snow is more likely north of Milwaukee and Madison, where most guidance is showing more persistent low level moisture... Finally started actually snowing about 15 minutes ago. Light dusting on the pavement and cars in my apartment building's lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I was under those returns for about an hour before seeing any actual flakes. MKX's AFD explains why: ... Dry low level air to our south will continue to pump into southern Wisconsin today and should limit snow at TAF sites during the day today. Expect to see a lot of returns on radar, but little in the way of snow reaching the ground until later this afternoon. Snow is more likely north of Milwaukee and Madison, where most guidance is showing more persistent low level moisture... Finally started actually snowing about 15 minutes ago. Light dusting on the pavement and cars in my apartment building's lot. Weird, it's been different for me, since getting into the higher reflectivities it's been snowing moderately. Already a dusting to half an inch down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: We just lowered range in WWA to 2-5", I think 5 is a stretch unless the lake enhancement really goes to town tomorrow. Lower end of the range (2-3") is probably reasonable. I do think it will snow pretty nicely tomorrow morning through early afternoon as the upper wave digs in with strong CAA ongoing. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Should look wintry at least. Hate to be pessimistic but it's not like the concerns are made up. I think it's probably more likely I come in at 2" or less than getting to 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: NAM is a lot more north than GFS. Barely brings any accumulation down to I74. GFS has been pretty consistent and a bit further south with heavier snow swath It's not really that, but instead the NAM is picking up on the sharp gradient there will be south of that main FGEN band. We saw this with that December event as well, the NAM was the only one to grasp the mesoscale side of things. Likely to be that case this time as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: LOT is going 3-5" here, but between timing of saturation and some temp concerns/questionable ratios early on, I think that is best case scenario. I am thinking maybe a couple inches. I do like Monday's prospects better, comparatively speaking. The WWA for the few counties is lol worthy. Gonna be 1-2" max for a line along and north of I-88 and trailing SE towards IKK. Thinking a bullish 1.3" at ORD tonight/tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 RAP has like a hundredth of precip here through 15z Sun. If that sluggish start is on the right track, it will be a struggle to even get to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The winter of true nickle and diming continues. Amazing how persistent this pattern has been. Monday/Tuesday event holds potential and might even deliver my biggest snowfall in 3 years, still not buying it yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 A bit surprised it is snowing here, has been since like 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: The NAM went big for the Monday wave. Cycloneville jackpot. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 49 minutes ago, Hoosier said: RAP has like a hundredth of precip here through 15z Sun. If that sluggish start is on the right track, it will be a struggle to even get to 1" HRRR isn't any better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: It's not really that, but instead the NAM is picking up on the sharp gradient there will be south of that main FGEN band. We saw this with that December event as well, the NAM was the only one to grasp the mesoscale side of things. Likely to be that case this time as well. Hope you're wrong because it looks likely I will miss out on the southern stream event after this. But would be about right for me to end up in between two storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I'm happy to see the 12z runs largely held the Monday system as is. Still a ways to go to get there though. Nice to have something to track again. Tonight's system looks to be mainly light rain for this area. Maybe a dusting well after midnight, but that looks to largely miss to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3km NAM just rolling out showing some pretty nice lift through much of the DGZ Mon PM. Gives some hope to the higher LSRs that have been mentioned. EDIT: I will say though that the DGZ pictured below isn't quite right. The temps through a good portion of the range shown is above -12C. Sort of the danger in just glancing at the range shown lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 18z NAM came in HOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 A little head scratching that LOT kept the advisory. Amounts just don't look that good, and can't really even attribute it to Super Bowl travel as the snow will basically be over by then. RC had an excellent writeup in the afd for Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The cutoff on nam is just brutal. Talk about threading the needle. Northern portion of my county has 5-6in while southern portion has 1-2in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Tremendously glad I steer clear of the social media aspect of weather "forecasting". Apparently the afternoon run of the Euro still has snow for our region on Wednesday...it's an outlier, however. Let's hope the outlier model is correct, and not an "out-and-out liar". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Temps seem to be overachieving ahead of the front for the 1,385,678th time. 43 MLI and 39 ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Snow kicked off ten minutes ago. Went from a little pixie and 38 degrees and then winds just went in to high gear out of south and we have an all out wet flake squall going. Temp dropped to 34 in same time. Edit - Now down to 32 Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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