JayPSU Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: What? There is no 10-12" along the OH River on the 00z GFS... He was referring to the GGEM which does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Angrysummons said: Which is stupid. If it is going to that amped up, it would be further north were the wavelengths are at. He was pointing out what the models showed, not making a forecast. Lighten up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 In other news.. the system for Sat evening/Sunday morning seems to have moved north and GFS and NAM 3km have dropped snow totals. DTX has moved the bulk of the snow to Sunday morning/early afternoon for SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 44 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z GFS and GDPS still on track for a band of 0.3" qpf across Iowa from the lead wave Monday. With ratios of 15+ to 1 expected, this wave may be very similar to the one that dropped 5 inches here at the end of December. I would be thrilled with that. Feeling pretty good about a nice little 2-3" event here with that. Won't buy into the higher ratios until the event is ongoing. With the way things have been going the past 4 months I'm sort of just waiting for subsequent runs to start walking back QPF a little at a time. Hope that doesn't happen, but won't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 47 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z GFS and GDPS still on track for a band of 0.3" qpf across Iowa from the lead wave Monday. With ratios of 15+ to 1 expected, this wave may be very similar to the one that dropped 5 inches here at the end of December. I would be thrilled with that. That storm gets a rare A+ from me, and is single handedly keeping this winter out of the "F" range. Daytime, good rates, easy to shovel, over performer--it had everything I want in a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like a TAB/DAB with a bit of advection snow this evening. Not even a trace around here. Weak advection couldn't overcome the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 And the Euro trends the wrong way with the mid week system, seen this game enough this winter to know where it is going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 And the Euro trends the wrong way with the mid week system, seen this game enough this winter to know where it is going...Since obviously modeling is non-linear, would like to give it more time, but can't fault the thinking it's gonna end up like the other attempts. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Since obviously modeling is non-linear, would like to give it more time, but can't fault the thinking it's gonna end up like the other attempts. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Oh I agree, that was more of a tongue-in-cheek post, but it is frustrating to have the same let down happen at this range over and over. I mean at this point if we had all the snow the Euro and GFS showed at this range, I'd be pushing 80" easily. We have had 2 or 3 storms modeled over a foot vanish around this time range already this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, Stebo said: And the Euro trends the wrong way with the mid week system, seen this game enough this winter to know where it is going... That's one of those where the run is not that bad in the area that gets impacted, but it stinks in the context of what previous runs had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: That's one of those where the run is not that bad in the area that gets impacted, but it stinks in the context of what previous runs had been showing. Yeah, I mean OH gets a modest event but otherwise it is a deflated balloon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 The problem is, every time we get something to come out in that run, a massive high comes with it and crushes any potential to lift north. The -EPO is screwing things up big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Oh I agree, that was more of a tongue-in-cheek post, but it is frustrating to have the same let down happen at this range over and over. I mean at this point if we had all the snow the Euro and GFS showed at this range, I'd be pushing 80" easily. We have had 2 or 3 storms modeled over a foot vanish around this time range already this winter.It's been a frustrating winter for sure trying to get one of these modeled bigger storms to actually work out and failing every time thus far. So much digital snow from every model and seemingly poorer performance relatively close in. I was encouraged when the 12z Euro didn't trend worse after the GFS improved through the 18z suite, but was not under any illusion that this was likely heading toward working out here. At least trends look pretty decent for the Monday clipper. Hoping things come back some with the mid week system on the 06z and 12z runs. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: It's been a frustrating winter for sure trying to get one of these modeled bigger storms to actually work out and failing every time thus far. So much digital snow from every model and seemingly poorer performance relatively close in. I was encouraged when the 12z Euro didn't trend worse after the GFS improved through the 18z suite, but was not under any illusion that this was likely heading toward working out here. At least trends look pretty for the Monday clipper. Hoping things come back some with the mid week system on the 06z and 12z runs. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Yeah the Monday thing is looking interesting, I just hope it doesn't dampen out too quickly as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The problem is, every time we get something to come out in that run, a massive high comes with it and crushes any potential to lift north. The -EPO is screwing things up big time.Considering that most our biggest storms came during -EPO, not sure if that's the culprit. Seems more tied to the southern wave not fully ejecting out coherently and the sheared wave is allowed to be more easily suppressed southeastward by the northern stream. The northern stream also appeared a hair quicker digging in than previous runs. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Considering that most our biggest storms came during -EPO, not sure if that's the culprit. Seems more tied to the southern wave not fully ejecting out coherently and the sheared wave is allowed to be more easily suppressed southeastward by the northern stream. The northern stream also appeared a hair quicker digging in than previous runs. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk True, but I think the magnitude of the -EPO combined with the +PNA just is crushing things, nothing is getting a chance to turn the corner. Basically everything is getting its head chopped off and unphasing so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 True, but I think the magnitude of the -EPO combined with the +PNA just is crushing things, nothing is getting a chance to turn the corner. Basically everything is getting its head chopped off and unphasing so to speak.With the ridge axis off the west coast and troughing over the high Plains and Rockies front range, this actually falls out as a -PNA at the time of the system. But clearly the arctic high pressing quicker played a role this run. That's something that can be worked on, but we need that cleaner neutral/negative tilt wave ejection. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Euro finally caves to GFS/GGEM. Been the theme of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Euro has been trashy this winter with storms...pun intended. Not sure its even worth looking at it outside 2-3 days...which I almost can't believe I'm saying. Nevertheless, looks like two corridors should do well with this series of impulses. MKE-ORD-DTW and north look pretty good for today through Monday...then STL-IND-CMH for the Tuesday-Wednesday piece. Places in-between might be left fighting for scraps when all is said and done. Wouldn't surprise me if MBY sees very little snow with this train, being stuck in the middle. But, good for the folks who do cash. Hopefully there's some overachieving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Man so disheartening. Was hoping euro was right for once. Hopefully it will trend back but not looking likely. At least this clipper Mon night could be a consolation prize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Fumes coming out of my ears right now, This weekend's system was looking greatt here for 6 plus inches of snow, Each successive run just keeps taking it north and north waaaay into Canada. Looks like rain is even getting possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I've been watching the CMC modeling this winter and have been actually happy with the performance. Between this the HRRR and RAP on snow day I have felt very confident on my decisions while keeping my lots serviced. My bet is something is going to phase before spring, Wack-a-mole style... Much like Mondays over performer locally. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Temps look to possibly briefly tick a degree or two above freezing tmrw morning south and east sides of SE MI. Thinking it's a wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 12 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: In all honesty....I don't have any. Ok...I'll say this best case scenario is probably still under 6". Fast moving open wave. I wouldn't invest a lot into it. I'm actually thinking it could be a total miss for us to the southeast. It's funny how The Weather Network got people all hyped up about the potential for the biggest storm of the season - maybe 6-8" - and now it's totally fizzling. They are grasping at straws given they were calling for a snowier than average winter for us and are looking for something to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm actually thinking it could be a total miss for us to the southeast. It's funny how The Weather Network got people all hyped up about the potential for the biggest storm of the season - maybe 6-8" - and now it's totally fizzling. They are grasping at straws given they were calling for a snowier than average winter for us and are looking for something to deliver. It's more about clicks and hype to create revenue.. So much click bait on that site any longer, sure some is weather relevant although more for entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The NAM went big for the Monday wave. Cycloneville jackpot. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The NAM went big for the Monday wave. Cycloneville jackpot. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk It sure did! A nice band of 6-10 along & just north of I-80. 6z GFS also had a widespread 4-7 across either side of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The NAM went big for the Monday wave. Cycloneville jackpot. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Yeah, I can't help get a bit excited about Monday. Latest nam has a 0.50" qpf stripe through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City to the QC. The snow could really pour down from midday to mid afternoon. If we can just lock this qpf and track in together with perfect middle-of-the-day timing, this could really be a nice little thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Tomorrows system is looking more and more sloppy with each run here further south. I'm going with .5 - 1" on grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.