beavis1729 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 And here we go...the 12z GFS and GEM are already starting to back off on precip amounts over the next 10 days...dropping down to around 0.5" for much of the Midwest, compared to around 1" with last night's runs. And the "bigger" storm for Days 6-7 is becoming more sheared out. Somewhat surprised to see this, especially after last night's 00z Euro was much wetter per Chinook's post above. Not concerned too much as of yet, since this is only a snapshot from 2 operational runs at long leads. Hopefully the 12z GEFS and 12Z Euro will be more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: 12z GEM got less impressive with the system next week. The way it evolved I would toss it, GEM and systems moving through the middle or southern Rockies just don't mix well. It does alright with northern stream energy but it completely lost with southern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The Euro for the weekend system is a general 3-7" for most everyone, in line with the 12z GFS. But that next week storm on the Euro is just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Euro just went big for storm system next week for SE Michigan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The euro has been lov'n NW Ohio all winter long in the 5-6 day range. I think its given that area 20' of snow if you add all the fantasy storms up lol. One of these times that squirrel is gonna find the nut...maybe its this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Out of all the model runs so far the 12Z Euro seems to me to be the most "realistic" with the sharp cutoff rain/snow line on the southern flank. Placement is certainly up in the air though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 22 minutes ago, buckeye said: The euro has been lov'n NW Ohio all winter long in the 5-6 day range. I think its given that area 20' of snow if you add all the fantasy storms up lol. One of these times that squirrel is gonna find the nut...maybe its this time. Euro has been a mess this winter. Hard to believe anything it shows especially 5+ days out. Just caught on to the Sunday storm so i'm sure it's clueless still on the Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nflow6 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 47 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Euro has been a mess this winter. Hard to believe anything it shows especially 5+ days out. Just caught on to the Sunday storm so i'm sure it's clueless still on the Tuesday storm. I agree. I think the upgrade they ran in Julyish is a fail at least for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Regarding the mid week system, the obvious point is that we need the stronger southern wave to get the significant synoptic system like depicted on the Euro. I'm not favoring either outcome at this point, other than that it's not a thread the needle deal like the early January system that ended up well east of Euro progs from a few days prior. Also, not going to focus on specific anecdotal model biases in terms of how they've performed this winter.What I'm seeing in the background that would be potentially favorable for a Euro op like outcome or even farther north is a distinct ensemble trend the past few days of runs towards a stronger southeast ridge/western Atlantic ridge (possibly due to MJO wave influence). Contingent upon the strong southern stream wave, the background positive height anomalies/ridging would be further pumped by a strong wave. Looking at the individual ensemble member plot on the Euro, most of the members that have a well defined surface low center are north/northwest of the ensemble mean, some north of the operational Euro. The remaining members have a weaker strung out trough that doesn't register as a surface low center on wxbell, similar to 12z GFS and many GEFS members. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Yeah, the op euro was max potential, if everything comes together. I would disagree, as the post right above yours shows that there are stronger more organized ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Going in the other direction though, worst case scenario is the 18z GFS flat as **** run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Angrysummons said: Which means nothing. The fact is, those runs are very unlikely as the s/w isn't that strong. I doubt the Euro op is right either, it is to amped. You can't fight this winter. In the end, I doubt there is a overly large snowstorm from this. The shortwave is strong it is just about how it evolves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I see the crash and burn for this system has already started Sent from my iPhone 8+ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 So using a blend of the euro and the latest gfs, my forecast for Toledo is dusting to 19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Which means nothing. The fact is, those runs are very unlikely as the s/w isn't that strong. I doubt the Euro op is right either, it is to amped. You can't fight this winter. In the end, I doubt there is a overly large snowstorm from this.You mean the wave that's way out in the Pacific and won't be coming ashore til Sunday evening on southwest British Columbia? I don't think you can assume perceived model biases will always hold in given scenarios. Could you be right? Sure. The seasonal trends definitely give pause and I'm certainly not bullish on the setup yet with plenty of evidence pointing the other way. We've also seen multiple cases in the past where seasonal trends didn't apply. 120+ hours out is just too far to rule things out IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I'm not big on the seasonal trend thing for individual storms. There's just too much going on in the atmosphere and of course it often comes down to timing/phasing for bigger storms. The system next week could very well be a dud, but would it be because that's what we've been seeing a lot of this winter? Eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 and ILN's thoughts in their AFD tonight on the Tues/Wed system: This is a system to be watched closely but there will likely be many adjustments to the forecast as it gets closer in time. Weather enthusiasts should not get too focused on any one model solution, especially this far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 Boy the NAMs have the Saturday/Sunday system pretty damn far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Boy the NAMs have the Saturday/Sunday system pretty damn far north. The lack of phasing and amplification this winter is just ridiculous. It's really surprising to see just how progressive this winter has been. There is the potential for a SSW and consequent PV split and should it happen, maybe we'll see an end to this progressive pattern? Make or break type of winter. Hard to take any model solution >48 hours seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'm not big on the seasonal trend thing for individual storms. There's just too much going on in the atmosphere and of course it often comes down to timing/phasing for bigger storms. The system next week could very well be a dud, but would it be because that's what we've been seeing a lot of this winter? Eh. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 34 minutes ago, Stebo said: Boy the NAMs have the Saturday/Sunday system pretty damn far north. I have noticed this trend multiple times play out in the past. Models show a series of clippers hitting the same area within 7 days. Initially it looks to favor a band through Iowa and Illinois. As the time approaches the band shifts North to southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. Then to northern Minnesota and the UP. By the time it happens the band is up in Manitoba and Ontario. Not saying it will happen this time. But it wouldn't surprise me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 GFS seems like it wants to suppress the early week storm. The low center is way south compared to previous runs. Curious if Euro will hold to a more northern solution or cave to what GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Ggem has like 5 separate snow events next week for Ohio. As bad as the models have been I think we have at least 50/50 shot of one verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 00z Euro is still pretty nice, but it backed off some of those really high amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro is still pretty nice, but it backed off some of those really high amounts. Also shifted south some which will probably continue as it catches up to other models once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Improvements aloft for mid week on 12z GFS and GEM versus previous 2 runs, not yet nearly enough for northern IL/northwest Indiana but changes aloft did result in a noteworthy northern expansion of precip shield at this longitude. Southern wave still gets squashed/sheared on Wednesday, but was a good bit stronger and farther west over southern Rockies into southern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Can also see increasing ridging out ahead via 500 mb height anomalies on tropical tidbits. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Can't even keep track of these....seems we have an impulse tommorow into Sunday with some lake potential, than another Monday into Tuesday,and than I think another as referenced above by RC. Difficult to pin down which is which, and what areas of the forum will be impacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 57 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Improvements aloft for mid week on 12z GFS and GEM versus previous 2 runs, not yet nearly enough for northern IL/northwest Indiana but changes aloft did result in a noteworthy northern expansion of precip shield at this longitude. Southern wave still gets squashed/sheared on Wednesday, but was a good bit stronger and farther west over southern Rockies into southern Plains Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Can also see increasing ridging out ahead via 500 mb height anomalies on tropical tidbits. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk I don't really like this weekend's system too much as temps look to be marginal early on (especially in my area) which hurts amounts, though we'll see what the lake can provide. So it means I am a bit more interested in that system early next week. Even though there's a real possibility of the heavier band of snow going south, northern IL/northwest IN may at least get in on the initial band of precip... and temps at onset will be zero concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Only the GFS seems enamored with the idea of this trail slp area developing on Sunday. Rest of the models look like a clipper-like storm that's too far north for most of us for anything but -WTSN with the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 26 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Only the GFS seems enamored with the idea of this trail slp area developing on Sunday. Rest of the models look like a clipper-like storm that's too far north for most of us for anything but -WTSN with the fropa. Pretty good model agreement between the 12z GFS, 12z CMC, 12z Ukie and even the ICON on a good 3-6" across the GTA on the weekend system. Nam is currently the outlier with the slp tracking north of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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