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Early February Hyperactivity


Stebo

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9 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah a buddy from work texted that they got over 9" about 30 miles south of here in Galva.  The radar returns along that band were pretty intense looking for quite awhile.  Can only imagine how hard it must have been snowing considering how heavy it snowed here under lighter returns.  Had to be an awesome sight.  

In the end it seems like the NAMs and GFS were both right.  The NAMs had the right idea with the band of heavier precip, but the GFS was pretty spot on with the placement of the heaviest totals.  Euro was a tad too far north.  

GFS had seen that in one of its final runs where it deviated in placement with heavy snow from central to SE IA! It was our star player.

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Just an FYI if I'm not trippin, Radar echos seem to reveal that tonight's wave is a bit further north at the moment than 00z models had placed it, and it's snowing in southwestern Nebraska a good clip which the GFS and NAM missed but the GDPS hinted at. Still far to our west and tough to be able to say it will stay on that trend but it's something to think about.

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58 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Finished with exactly 1 inch of pixie dust both my house and DTW last night. Building up the pack and the snowbanks. Tonight looks like a few inches then onto Friday.

Sorry if I do a little happy dance at your expense with my 5+ last night. Finally beat Detroit.

Look to tack on another inch or two tonight. I would be nice to have a daytime event though.

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8 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Measured 5.0" for a total here. Killer last couple of hours did the trick. Hope to get lucky tonight with another inch or two. Days and days and days of snow...

You see the official measurement for Kankakee was only 3"?  Lol.  Horrible. 

I was around 4.5"

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Winter storm warning now issued for the KY bluegrass east of Louisville over to Frankfort and Paris for .25 inch of ice with possible power outages.  Up to .2 inch of ice in Louisville metro.  Fits Feb, climo for the Ohio Valley. And PAH has now issued an Ice Storm Warning for Poplar Bluff, Sikeston, and Cairo region in their CWA. This is for Tuesday night into Wed, morning Feb.6-7

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4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

Sorry if I do a little happy dance at your expense with my 5+ last night. Finally beat Detroit.

Look to tack on another inch or two tonight. I would be nice to have a daytime event though.

I am glad you guys finally scored! Tonight is looking better and better per hrrr. Another WWA. I have lost count how many winter headlines DTX has issued this winter, between WSW, WWA, WCA, & WCW

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

ORD is up to 14.1" on the season now, with 4.1" in the past 3 days.

That's good. Atleast it ain't a futility record based on what Hoosier posted a couple of weeks ago. 

Chicago will definitely exceed 20" by the end of this week imo. It amazes me much how much the weather varies between Chicago-Detriot-Toronto, given there relative short distance between each other. 

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1 hour ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

The hrrr continues to show a possible SW-NE oritented area of banding tonight through IL-MI. Curious to see how high totals get where that band sets up

Short term guidance has been shifting that axis northward this evening. Looking to run through the heart of the CWA now, and into the south-central metro.

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14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Short term guidance has been shifting that axis northward this evening. Looking to run through the heart of the CWA now, and into the south-central metro.

Comparing the 12Z nam to the 0Z, it appears the main axis coming through Northern Indiana and Se MI is taking a more W-E orientation vs the SW to NE.  In turn bringing North into Chi Town, but S into Toledo.   

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3km NAM, HRRR and RAP all showing around 2-5" across the GTA tomorrow. Depending on ratios, I'd lean closer to 4.0" atm. Doing a brief surface and upper air analysis, there is an abundance of moisture especially with the southern stream. We'll see if that can play a role tomorrow. Nonetheless, should be a quick hitting couple of inches tomorrow just after the morning commute. 

 

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And down south by Paducah over the Ohio River this evening.....

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
857 PM CST TUE FEB 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     FREEZING RAIN    PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
02/06/2018  E0.00 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THE BROOKPORT BRIDGE WAS ICED OVER AND WILL PROBABLY BE
            CLOSED SOON. THE BRIDGE HAS A METAL GRATE FOR ROADWAY AND
            IT FREEZES OVER RAPIDLY.
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