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Early February Hyperactivity


Stebo

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wish that band was a bit north.  

Lol, that’s pretty much what I was saying earlier today as the best returns slid to the south...but we finally got into the good stuff tonight. Just measured a little shy of 4”, though it’s kinda weirdly not uniform amounts as some spots have more in and around my measuring location. Regardless, the late rally is playing out nicely.

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35 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Not a flake.  LL dry air is entrenched taking its sweet time to saturate.  

Wow, quite difference. We're already at around 2". We got a nice initial thump with that thin band earlier and it looks like we'll easily see 4". The first overperformer of the year locally.

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42 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

There are now 9-10.5 inch reports coming out of the heavy band from southeast Iowa into Illinois.

Yeah a buddy from work texted that they got over 9" about 30 miles south of here in Galva.  The radar returns along that band were pretty intense looking for quite awhile.  Can only imagine how hard it must have been snowing considering how heavy it snowed here under lighter returns.  Had to be an awesome sight.  

In the end it seems like the NAMs and GFS were both right.  The NAMs had the right idea with the band of heavier precip, but the GFS was pretty spot on with the placement of the heaviest totals.  Euro was a tad too far north.  

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52 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Wow, quite difference. We're already at around 2". We got a nice initial thump with that thin band earlier and it looks like we'll easily see 4". The first overperformer of the year locally.

Finally kicked in about 45 min ago.  That dry air was stubborn as hell.  Burned us Sat too.  Super shiny reflective crystals, glad I'm not 20 at a Dead show, I'd be freaking out lol!

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2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Radar estimated precip from the past 12hrs...

EDIT:  Oops, cutoff the precip scale lol.  Blue is 0.5", and dark green is 0.25".  

3523kmc.jpg

That sweet spot from east of Ottumwa through Galesburg and over to Lacon had quite a few 8-10in reports. I got in the 4-5in range here. GFS going gangbusters tmrw night on a hefty band with that next system. Loving this pattern

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9 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Tomorrow night’s event could surprise some folks, the nam is hinting at some banding potential, could drop some decent totals in localized areas like tonight if it happens

Agreed, models have been inching upward in QPF every 6 hours today for tomorrow night.

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000
NWUS53 KLOT 060342
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
942 PM CST MON FEB 05 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     SNOW             CORNELL                 40.99N 88.73W
02/05/2018  E8.0 INCH        LIVINGSTON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

RATZER
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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Agreed, models have been inching upward in QPF every 6 hours today for tomorrow night.

Yea I'm def excited esp since I only missed that death band today by a county. Lol. But for as late as the snow started here (5pm) it really added up quick. At least an inch per hour rates

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ORD -- half-centing, pennying, nickeling, and diming their way.

The forecast qpf from my office for there was pretty good, we averaged about 0.20" leading up to the event and it had 0.22". Yet again, poor snow growth/low ratios were a problem, with ORD ending up with 2.2" at an exactly 10:1 ratio. I had a feeling it would be an issue somewhere, but didn't think it would be as pronounced or long lasting through the event outside of the strongest f-gen banding, which turned out to be most of the metro had the lower ratios again.   

This shows the challenge of ratio based snow forecasting. When it's cold the maxT aloft/Kuchera method always assumes high ratios, often 20:1 or above. In reality it's obviously not that simple, with the location of lift through the DGZ and how strong that lift is determining supersaturstion with respect to ice, and these ultimately determine SLR. I'd bet if we were to plot SLR for this event, there would be a large area of 17-20:1+ where the highest snow amounts were (aligned with strongest f-gen banding) and climo (13-14:1) or less elsewhere. Had climo SLR been used for the metro, it would've been a good forecast based off the QPF.

 

 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The forecast qpf from my office for there was pretty good, we averaged about 0.20" leading up to the event and it had 0.22". Yet again, poor snow growth/low ratios were a problem, with ORD ending up with 2.2" at an exactly 10:1 ratio. I had a feeling it would be an issue somewhere, but didn't think it would be as pronounced or long lasting through the event outside of the strongest f-gen banding, which turned out to be most of the metro had the lower ratios again.  

 

This shows the challenge of ratio based snow forecasting. When it's cold the maxT aloft/Kuchera method always assumes high ratios, often 20:1 or above. In reality it's obviously not that simple, with the location of lift through the DGZ and how strong that lift is determining supersaturstion with respect to ice, and these ultimately determine SLR. I'd bet if we were to plot SLR for this event, there would be a large area of 18-20:1+ where the highest snow amounts were (aligned with strongest f-gen banding) and climo (13-14:1) or less elsewhere. Had climo SLR been used for the metro, it would've been a good forecast based off the QPF.

Exactly what happened here. The f-gen band rolled right over us and I ended up at 17:1 (0.31/5.3")

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