hawkeye_wx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 We're on the eve of the storm, but so far this evening's models are spreading apart a bit more, not coming together. The NAM is holding to its north track with an ese trajectory, while the GFS is not only holding to its more south track, but diving the heaviest snow even more southeastward into southern Iowa. The NAM is now predicting twice as much snow as the GFS in CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, blackrock said: Wow, GRR must be thinking we'll get some good lake enhancement in West Michigan. Zone forecast has 5 to 8 inches in it for tomorrow afternoon/night. In the Advisory they issued, they mention localized areas of 8 inches. Yep...they just issued an updated discussion. Southwest flow lake enhanced event. My Favorite!!! Poundtown snowfall events. Hopefully it works out. Looks like you snow-starved folks in Iowa are going to get a nice hit as well. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: We're on the eve of the storm, but so far this evening's models are spreading apart a bit more, not coming together. The NAM is holding to its north track with an ese trajectory, while the GFS is not only holding to its more south track, but diving the heaviest snow even more southeastward away from CR/IC. The NAM is now predicting twice as much snow as the GFS in CR. It has almost become more of a NW-SE game than N/S, with the heaviest axis through Central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS still consistent on its snow swath but really downed totals for areas further east. GFS also isn't a great short term model. So may not be getting mesoscale banding down. Curious to see what hrrr and rap show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 20 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: GFS still consistent on its snow swath but really downed totals for areas further east. GFS also isn't a great short term model. So may not be getting mesoscale banding down. Curious to see what hrrr and rap show Yea the NAM, HRRR, RAP and the NWS are in the north camp. But the GFS also has the Canadian suite supporting it, so I wouldn't completely discount it, but boy it would be a let down for sure(at least for me!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Finished with 5.5", about double what I was expecting yesterday at this time. Up to 38.5" on the season. Very wintry out...I love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Yea the NAM, HRRR, RAP and the NWS are in the north camp. But the GFS also has the Canadian suite supporting it, so I wouldn't completely discount it, but boy it would be a let down for sure(at least for me!) Hrrr has a nice banding look to it. I feel like clippers tend to end up more south. But not always. I still think near I80 will be the sweet spot. I'm just north of 74 in Peoria. I'm near that cutoff from pretty heavy totals to alright totals. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Hrrr has a nice banding look to it. I feel like clippers tend to end up more south. But not always. I still think near I80 will be the sweet spot. I'm just north of 74 in Peoria. I'm near that cutoff from pretty heavy totals to alright totals. LolThe HRRR can be a fake out sometimes a little farther out in time but at least on the runs this evening it's not having the look of a significant underperformer up here. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The 00z UK has joined the GFS late in the week, showing an extended period of baroclinic zone snow through Iowa, followed by a bigger storm lifting northeast across the state/region Saturday. The GDPS (Canadian) does not agree, and the morning Euro did not have the big weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The 00z UK has joined the GFS late in the week, showing an extended period of baroclinic zone snow through Iowa, followed by a bigger storm lifting northeast across the state/region Saturday. The GDPS (Canadian) does not agree, and the morning Euro did not have the big weekend system.Would you be able to post some of the maps? I don't think meteocentre has precip beyond 72 hours and Maue's UKMET stuff I believe is behind a paywall now. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 GFS only about 0.15-0.20" for this area now. The last few runs of the RGEM backed off on amounts a bit as well. Gonna hold onto the 4" call for now, but if the Euro follows suit I may have to cut back a bit. 3.6" December event may still end up being the heaviest of the winter so far if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The HRRR can be a fake out sometimes a little farther out in time but at least on the runs this evening it's not having the look of a significant underperformer up here. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk True story. That is technically it's "long range". Ha. System has a nice look to it on radar already. I'm being cautiously optimistic. You are definitely sitting pretty for this. I like the active pattern gfs is showing all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GFS only about 0.15-0.20" for this area now. The last few runs of the RGEM backed off on amounts a bit as well. Gonna hold onto the 4" call for now, but if the Euro follows suit I may have to cut back a bit. 3.6" December event may still end up being the heaviest of the winter so far if trends continue. I wonder if these lower resolution models are dampening the wave to fast because the higher res models aren't looking as paltry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: GFS only about 0.15-0.20" for this area now. The last few runs of the RGEM backed off on amounts a bit as well. Gonna hold onto the 4" call for now, but if the Euro follows suit I may have to cut back a bit. 3.6" December event may still end up being the heaviest of the winter so far if trends continue. The HRRR looks just like the NAM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Would you be able to post some of the maps? I don't think meteocentre has precip beyond 72 hours and Maue's UKMET stuff I believe is behind a paywall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: The HRRR looks just like the NAM/Euro. Yeah hopefully the GFS and RGEM are a little too stingy. The HRRRx has cut back a little from earlier runs though, but not nearly as bad as the GFS. I'll be happy with a good 3" snow, but of course was hoping for a nice 4-5" one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 New Euro sliced another 0.05-0.08" from the 12z for the QCA. Gonna lower my call to 3-3.5" for here, and 3.5-4" for the QC. Looks like another 5" event for Hawkeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Managed over 3.5" of new snow this evening...thanks to a few hours of lake enhancement that kept moderate to heavy snow going...pushing my total for the "storm" to near 4"...not bad, even if lake-assisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro sliced another 0.05-0.08" from the 12z for the QCA. Gonna lower my call to 3-3.5" for here, and 3.5-4" for the QC. Looks like another 5" event for Hawkeye. Euro has never been enthused with this system so I wouldn't worry too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Euro has never been enthused with this system so I wouldn't worry too muchI'm actually encouraged by this run relatively speaking, yes it was slightly drier but not as much of a cutback from previous runs as on the other models. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Thanks. New Euro has the weekend system now too after the baroclinic zone snows Thursday through Friday night. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just nice to have an active pattern to follow for a change. Hopefully all of us can jackpot from the pattern. Not feeling great about clipper tomorrow for my area, I'm right on the edge of the heaviest potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Finished with 5.5", about double what I was expecting yesterday at this time. Up to 38.5" on the season. Very wintry out...I love it! The liquid equivalent in my 5.5" was 0.39". The 4.8" at DTW brings the season total to 36.5". Just 5.9" more and the average for an entire season will be met. 2.5 more months of measurable snow potential to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The hrrr is looking decent, has a swath of 6-7” roughly along I-80 into almost Indiana. The nam bros also looked a tiny bit more juiced compared to earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said: The hrrr is looking decent, has a swath of 6-7” roughly along I-80 into almost Indiana. The nam bros also looked a tiny bit more juiced compared to earlier runs. I notice the HRRR and RAP deviating substantially from all the other models attm are they to be more heavily weighted on in near term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 The system will lose it's steam once it reaches MI so only expecting 1 to at most 2" here. Yet another shovelable snowfall though, add to the depth and then snowbanks. I am definitely pulling for you guys to my West and southwest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Looks like anywhere from about 0.15-0.30” of QPF here, so 2-4” sounds about right when poo pooing ratios. Sorry, got to believe it when I see it, lol. West zones in the LOT CWA favored for the highest amounts, but the 6z NAMs indicate a second jack in Southwest parts, and getting into Ford and Iroquois. Anyways, snow on top of snow always appreciated. And oh, sitting at -11 right now. That’s overachieving, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said: I notice the HRRR and RAP deviating substantially from all the other models attm are they to be more heavily weighted on in near term? Exactly. Usually, they do a great job in the short term like this in defining smaller details, but usually it’s also in agreement with the nam at this point with minimal differences between the two. I’d side with hrrr/rap a little bit over the nam, but both should be weighed heavily at this point. Wonder if the nam will be any wetter with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Thanks. New Euro has the weekend system now too after the baroclinic zone snows Thursday through Friday night. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Watch it fall apart as we get closer, just like every storm this season. Can't shake this progressiveness off to allow jets and storms to phase. Maybe with the impending SSW we'll get some more favorable storm opportunities as it loosens the polar jet stream a bit. But honestly, I don't know, this pattern is absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Exactly. Usually, they do a great job in the short term like this in defining smaller details, but usually it’s also in agreement with the nam at this point with minimal differences between the two. I’d side with hrrr/rap a little bit over the nam, but both should be weighed heavily at this point. Wonder if the nam will be any wetter with the 12z run. Both NAMs came in much improved east of the MS River. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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