RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Obviously a long way to go but late week system has the potential to be very good with a very nice baroclinic zone indicated.Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:13 PM, ams30721us said: Pretty nice novelty snow burst here in Davenport this morning. A nice little dusting, with decent flake size blowing around in the wind making it look very wintry! Expand Yeah looks very nice. Nice snow globe action. Looks like a few tenths so far here. Higher res models doubled down, and even bumped north. 3km has zero precip for the southern QC, which seems a bit extreme. I'd toss that. I guess the only thing you can do at this point is just blend them all. I'd just go with widespread 2-4" with isolated higher amounts for the whole DVN cwa and call it a day lol. Probably will be a 4-6"+ band somewhere but not enough model agreement yet to put that into a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The thread title really isn't fitting anymore, given none of the events really look to be clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 2:34 PM, ConvectiveIA said: The NAM is coming in dangerously north. It is the outlier of the other models, and would be surprised if the others trend to it however who am I to say. The NAM gives us ZERO snow, while the other models give us 6 inches. Weird being its only 24 hours away to start. It was discussed in AFD here about this being hard to predict by the system type's nature. But the NAM is BAD and has us in a total screw zone the size of the city as compared to the rest of the state over the next 3 days Let's talk about the 12z NAM. Tell us it will be OK ane be bullied out by the other model runs. It's what I need to hear, ok? Expand I truly think nam is out to lunch. Gfs has been remarkably consistent with its snow swath. I do think there could be a sharp cutoff but not sure it will be as thread the needle as nam has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 12z gfs did adjust a smidge north but overall has been very consistent in a healthy swath of 3-7in between I80 and I72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:32 PM, StormChaser4Life said: I truly think nam is out to lunch. Gfs has been remarkably consistent with its snow swath. I do think there could be a sharp cutoff but not sure it will be as thread the needle as nam has Expand The GEM is holding strong too. It seems the NAM is the outlier, atleast I hope it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:36 PM, CoalCityWxMan said: The GEM is holding strong too. It seems the NAM is the outlier, atleast I hope it is lol Expand Lol. Wishcasting 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:32 PM, StormChaser4Life said: I truly think nam is out to lunch. Gfs has been remarkably consistent with its snow swath. I do think there could be a sharp cutoff but not sure it will be as thread the needle as nam has Expand The cutoff will be sharp, that's pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:40 PM, StormChaser4Life said: Lol. Wishcasting 101 Expand I hope the nam is wrong, but it’s hard to ignore. But it’s obviously the furthest north guidance though, worlds apart from the gem/gfs or even the hrrrx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:03 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like about 2" here so far. Don't expect a ton of additional accums during the day as temps will be just above freezing. I find it hilarious that we're going to penny and nickel are way to a 40" winter. Expand I'd guess we have at least 10-12cm. Looks worse but winds were drifting snow for most of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:03 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like about 2" here so far. Don't expect a ton of additional accums during the day as temps will be just above freezing. I find it hilarious that we're going to penny and nickel are way to a 40" winter. Expand Same with down here. We're at about half of our annual snow totals (around 34") and with the exception of the 4"+ Christmas Eve snow, nothing more than an inch and a half at a time. Picked up 0.6" this morning and may get a few more tenths later. On 2/4/2018 at 4:31 PM, Chicago Storm said: The threat title really isn't fitting anymore, given none of the events really look to be clippers. Expand Yeah, it might be semantics, but maybe "wave train"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The 12z GDPS comes in way south of its predecessor but also more widespread. The UKMET is similar to it. The GFS has the best consistency run to run being smack dab in the middle. Thing of it is, we are less than 24 hours out from the beginning of the event. It's hard to imagine the widespread consensus suddenly jumping on the NAM bandwagon within 12-18 hours of the event. It could happen technically, the NAM is tidy, but I don't recall much in the way of that sort of major change taking place with an outlier model this close to an event since the 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:03 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Looks like about 2" here so far. Don't expect a ton of additional accums during the day as temps will be just above freezing. I find it hilarious that we're going to penny and nickel are way to a 40" winter. Expand Those downsloping winds really limited amounts in the GTA. Haha, 40" seems like a long shot, more like one inch at a time. . Almost similar to 95-96 per climate records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Sort of caught in between the better precip so far but that looks to change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Best burst of snow for the event thus far... SN with 1/2M vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 2:30 PM, RCNYILWX said: Yep, north of 06z, could tell watching it roll out that it had a slightly stronger mid level wave. Even has a surface low reflection over MO. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Expand Good luck with the Monday forecast. I guess we're at the point when the NAM has to be weighed seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I wouldn’t go 100% NAM, but I’d give it the most weight in a blend. It does well with these types of waves, especially with the southern cut offs. I’d be very surprised if I saw more than an inch or two. I-80 on north should be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Some nice enhancement on those returns up in northeast IL. Looks like we got about a half inch. The wind is whipping the dry powder around out there. Now that the better enhancement has moved out the flake size is much smaller. Nice little appetizer for tomorrow's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 5:17 PM, cyclone77 said: Some nice enhancement on those returns up in northeast IL. Looks like we got about a half inch. The wind is whipping the dry powder around out there. Now that the better enhancement has moved out the flake size is much smaller. Nice little appetizer for tomorrow's event. Expand Yep. Coming down at a nice clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 5:21 PM, Baum said: Yep. Coming down at a nice clip. Expand Give me this flake size tomorrow and w would have a nice overachiever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:32 PM, StormChaser4Life said: I truly think nam is out to lunch. Gfs has been remarkably consistent with its snow swath. I do think there could be a sharp cutoff but not sure it will be as thread the needle as nam has Expand On 2/4/2018 at 5:11 PM, Chicago WX said: I wouldn’t go 100% NAM, but I’d give it the most weight in a blend. It does well with these types of waves, especially with the southern cut offs. I’d be very surprised if I saw more than an inch or two. I-80 on north should be the sweet spot. Expand NAM is getting into its sweet spot in terms of range, and at least for N IL, has done very well in terms of placement and southern cutoff for our two snowfalls of any substance. Go with the blend, with a heavy weight/ preference on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The HRW-NMMB/ARW sort of split the middle. Not as far north as the NAM bros, but maybe a smidge north of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 4:31 PM, Chicago Storm said: The threat title really isn't fitting anymore, given none of the events really look to be clippers. Expand Yeah, I will adjust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Full on winter out there and quite a bit of blowing snow even with not much accumulation yet. May be a halfway decent system if these heavier rates hang around a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 5:41 PM, Hoosier said: Full on winter out there and quite a bit of blowing snow even with not much accumulation yet. May be a halfway decent system if these heavier rates hang around a while. Expand 1/4 mile vis at GYY, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 5:40 PM, Stebo said: Yeah, I will adjust it. Expand Well that's... interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2018 Author Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 5:47 PM, Hoosier said: Well that's... interesting. Expand I couldn't figure out a better name haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Is the new thread title for the weather or the posters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On 2/4/2018 at 5:38 PM, SchaumburgStormer said: NAM is getting into its sweet spot in terms of range, and at least for N IL, has done very well in terms of placement and southern cutoff for our two snowfalls of any substance. Go with the blend, with a heavy weight/ preference on NAM Expand I can get on board with that reasoning for sure even if I don't like its potential outcome. I am obviously quite impatient to see the 18z run come out on this to see how it trends to see if it sags further south at the western side before heading east, or if that prohibitive arching "hump" of a cutoff remains before it heads more southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just a brief dusting here at Indpls metro this morning....all melted now as temp is currently 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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