Stebo Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 I don't believe I ever started one of these storm threads but figured I would give it a go, the pattern is looking very favorable for several impulses to rotate around the Hudson's Bay low starting with the first one on Saturday/Sunday. This one could potentially need a thread of its own however because there is a potential of hooking into a bit of southern stream energy and a spinning up a decent system, see Sunday on the 12z and especially 18z GFS from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Maybe the other should be deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, Snowstorms said: Maybe the other should be deleted. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 The piece of vorticity associated with the Sunday potential is going to break off the upper low in the Pacific north of Hawaii tonight, so we will know pretty quickly if this potential for Sunday will take shape in some capacity or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Nice, Stebo! Always love your insight. I hope this trend favors some spread the wealth type stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 The pattern preceding this wave is fairly progressive so I wouldn't expect a fully amped storm. But depending on timing, we could see a decent overrunning storm. The high pressure across the Plains isn't super strong and there's quite alot of open gulf moisture, so a westward trend with decent amplification is one of a few possibilities. Though I wouldn't discount something similar to what the 12z Euro had either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 21 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Maybe the other should be deleted. I will close it for now but reopen in the coming days if warranted. The thing about this pattern is that sometimes a wave fizzles or the one that looks like the weaker one ends up being the bigger one, etc. so I think it makes sense to keep it all encompassing in here for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: The pattern preceding this wave is fairly progressive so I wouldn't expect a fully amped storm. But depending on timing, we could see a decent overrunning storm. The high pressure across the Plains isn't super strong and there's quite alot of open gulf moisture, so a westward trend with decent amplification is one of a few possibilities. Though I wouldn't discount something similar to what the 12z Euro had either. Considering we don't have a massive high pressing in for once, that gives this one a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 00z GFS is not quite as organized but still a solid system nonetheless for Sunday. Actually looks a bit juicier this run though which would make sense with the open gulf flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 0z GFS has another huge run for the 6-7 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 And Tuesday Feb. 6 looking good from MO to Ohio as a stronger storm with more moisture moves eastward. The pattern is finally becoming more active as a low traverses the Ohio valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Just wow! I hate to be in the bullseye this far out. Nice weather porn though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Just wow! Just get the Euro on board and get it within 3 days hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Just get the Euro on board and get it within 3 days hours. I will say the GFS has been kicking the Euro's ass this winter, and system 1 is in the 3-4 day range so that one probably has legs to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: I will say the GFS has been kicking the Euro's ass this winter, and system 1 is in the 3-4 day range so that one probably has legs to it. Yeah but I was talking about the system shown on that snow map. The GFS and Euro are way apart on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Just now, Hoosier said: Yeah but I was talking about the system shown on that snow map. The GFS and Euro are way apart on that one. Oh yeah, I am looking one system at a time, the 6-8 system is an after thought at this junction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just get the Euro on board and get it within 3 days hours. 0z GGEM has an area of 6-12" in the same general area if not a bit south of the GFS heavy snow area. So it does have some support but yes it would be nice to see the Euro jump on board even though its been horrible so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 I will say this, there is only one direction to go after the 00z run for Ohio and that is down... because I doubt that parts of the state get 20-25" of snow in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Stebo said: I will say this, there is only one direction to go after the 00z run for Ohio and that is down... I thought that after the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 PV hook path modeled by 00z GFS suggests the Tuesday-Weds southern stream wave would have a farther north surface low track than depicted by model verbatim. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 These 18-24" gfs runs have been fun to look at but that's about the extent of their value. The more realistic take away is that there is one hell of a strong signal for accumulating snow between Saturday and Wednesday. If you accept that premise you probably won't be disappointed. My take is a widespread 2-5" for a huge part of the forum this weekend/Monday, and a 'heads up' for tues/Wed. ...and GFS is probably over-amped....imagine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: PV hook path modeled by 00z GFS suggests the Tuesday-Weds southern stream wave would have a farther north surface low track than depicted by model verbatim. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Agree should be closer to Indy maybe even a bit further north. Also your phone needs a charge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Well, the Euro has both systems, along with a system Monday night that slides north/along 80 from Northern IA to Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Thinking Ohio rains for the midweek system...maybe some hope for the northern third of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6z GFS shifts south a bit for the Tuesday storm. Snowfall down a bit to 10-12" in the heaviest bad along and south of I-70 in IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 GFS has this going through Feb 10th. Puts a 1 foot + swath through Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 12z GEM got less impressive with the system next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 12z GEM got less impressive with the system next week. It's trying to cut off some of the energy in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The Euro went kind of nuts here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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