etudiant Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 Thank you for the explanation. So it means the oceans are absorbing the heat and getting warmer? Separately, what is 'negative SAL forcing' and what drives that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 21 hours ago, etudiant said: Thank you for the explanation. So it means the oceans are absorbing the heat and getting warmer? Separately, what is 'negative SAL forcing' and what drives that? Sahara Air Layer Also, I hadn't heard the phrase "atmosphere depletion" either, but enhanced ocean heat uptake at the expense of less atmospheric heat uptake is the way I understood Vice-Regent's definition. Obviously the harder your compress the spring the more it fights back. In other words, the atmosphere will eventually respond to the ocean heat uptake. It always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 July 2018 Global Temperature Update To sign up for our monthly update of global temperature (Maps and Graphs), click here. Additional figures are on our global temperature web page. Heat waves seemed unusually widespread in July, as the media reported extreme heat in Europe, the Middle East, northern Africa, Japan and western United States. Extreme heat contributed to extensive wildfires in the western United States, Greece and Sweden, with fire extending into the Arctic Circle. The left map is the global distribution of temperature anomalies with our usual 1200 km smoothing; the right map has 250 km smoothing and uses only meteorological stations (no sea surface temperatures). Area-weighted warming over land (1.14°C) is 1.5 times larger than global warming (0.78°C), consistent with data for the past century (see graphs at http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/). Globally July 2018 was the third warmest July since reliable measurements began in 1880, 0.78°C warmer than the 1951-1980 mean. The warmest Julys, in 2016 and 2017, were 0.82°C and 0.81°C, respectively. July 2018 temperature was +1.06°C relative to the 1880-1920 base period, where the latter provides our best estimate of pre-industrial global temperature. Continue reading:http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2018.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Good luck to the world.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Always amazed at developing El Nino conditions exact correlation with global temperature (greater than land area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Our quarterly @CarbonBrief State of the Climate report is now out! So far 2018 has featured record-high ocean heat content, sea level, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Surface temperatures are on track to be the 4th warmest after 2016, 2017 and 2015. carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…pic.twitter.com/vLzGeBH5bl 8:09 AM - 23 Oct 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 That's a great writeup bluewave. It's interesting how the variability in OHC declines through the years. By the 2000's the upward trend is very steady with little variation. Is there an explanation for this effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 On 10/26/2018 at 10:59 PM, bdgwx said: That's a great writeup bluewave. It's interesting how the variability in OHC declines through the years. By the 2000's the upward trend is very steady with little variation. Is there an explanation for this effect? Could be an artifact of a growing network of observations. Before 2000 ocean heat content was very poorly measured especially at depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Ahh. That’s more like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 The 4 warmest January to October periods have occurred in the last 4 years. Data using @NASAGISS GISTEMP since 1880. [Graphic fromcolumbia.edu/~mhs119/Temper…] pic.twitter.com/g7WqwuVR0d 7:59 AM - 16 Nov 2018 Similarly, preliminarily analysis from @NASAGISS shows October 2018 as the 2nd warmest on record (in at least 138 years) [GISTEMP method/data available at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/] pic.twitter.com/kpGygYCV5g 8:20 AM - 15 Nov 2018 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Anyway, check out these SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 26, 2018 Share Posted November 26, 2018 Berkeley Earth came in at +0.88 for October. GISTEMP came in at +0.96. As a point of reference at the peak in Feb. 2016 these values were +1.25 and +1.34 respectively. Last October was +0.77 and +0.88. So it has warmed about +0.10 since this time last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Not the whole story, but the other man-made and natural factors tend to cancel out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 If there's any usefulness ... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/full.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 Nino lifting global SST. Bottomed out well above the 2011/12 nina levels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I see the heat mongering has been tempered here in the past few weeks. I’ll just leave this here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 19 hours ago, WarmNose said: I see the heat mongering has been tempered here in the past few weeks. I’ll just leave this here Thanks for placing a map of less than 2% of the Earth's area in the Global Temperature thread. Super duper helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 48 minutes ago, nflwxman said: Thanks for placing a map of less than 2% of the Earth's area in the Global Temperature thread. Super duper helpful. Says the camp who blames man when a hurricane hits a teeny tiny little piece of the US. Super duper helpful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 From Nov. 2017 to Nov. 2018... GISS +0.86 to +0.77 for ΔT = -0.09C UAH +0.36 to +0.28 for ΔT = -0.08C NCAR +0.42 to +0.32 for ΔT = -0.04C CFSR +0.30 to +0.24 for ΔT = -0.06C And here are the plots from GISS. Notice the disproportionate distribution of the anomalies over the northern polar region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 On 10/22/2018 at 10:10 AM, Vice-Regent said: NH caught it just at the end of the year.. wonder if it's correlated with the market crashing hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 22, 2018 Author Share Posted December 22, 2018 UK met 2019 forecast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/2019-global-temperature-forecast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2018 data isn't in yet for the troposphere, but the hydrosphere data is now available. For those don't know the hydrosphere is important because it takes up > 90% of the excess heat. Land, ice, and atmosphere all combine to account for the remaining heat uptake budget. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 With government shutdown, only Berkeley Earth is available for 2018. Clear where we are headed. More details on 2018 at link below. http://berkeleyearth.org/2018-temperatures/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 So as of 2018 the Earth is about 1.1C above the preindustrial average. Berkeley Earth says the warming rate is 0.19C/decade. Assuming that rate holds firm the Earth will achieve 3C of warming (the center of the IPCC's 1.5-4.5C envelope) by (3 - 1.1) / (0.19 * 10) + 2018 = 2118. And if CO2 concentration growth holds firm at about 2.3 ppm/yr we will reach a doubling at (280*2 - 410) / 2.3 + 2018 = 2083. The difference being 35 years which is in the ballpark of what you expect the lag of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate response (ECR) to be. And analyzed in another way the TCR at 2083 using the 0.19C/decade rate is (2083 - 2018) * (0.19 / 10) + 1.1 = 2.3C. Thus the ratio of TCR=2.3C to ECR=3.0C is 0.75. Again this is in the ballpark of estimates derived from multiple lines of evidence. And one last point...if we assume TCR-to-ECR is 0.75 that means the 1.1C of warming of transient warming will produce 1.1 / 0.75 = 1.45C of equilibrium warming. In other words 1.5C of warming may already be baked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2019 Author Share Posted February 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-201812 December’s combined global land and ocean average surface temperature departure from average was the second warmest December in the 139-year record. With 11 of 12 monthly global land and ocean temperature departures from average ranking among the five warmest for their respective months, 2018 became the fourth warmest year in NOAA's 139-year record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4th warmest year = cooler now than the previous 3 years..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Looks like the us had the least warming than any other country.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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