chubbs Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 To kick-off 2018, below is the recently issued UK Met Office Decadal forecast. Per write-up, PDO+ and AMO+ favor warming over the 5-year outlook period after a relatively cool 2018. Green is the CMIP5 predicted range. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Could be the first year since 2013 with all ONIs staying below 0.0°C so I expect a slight step down. But that’s a big if. As mentioned above, PDO continues to trend more positive after going neutral the 2nd half of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 Here is another forecast using statistical methods. https://patricktbrown.org/2018/01/18/global-temperature-2018-likely-to-be-colder-than-2017-record-high-possible-in-2019/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 January may be the first month below +0.70° C on GISS since 2014. Using NCEP as a proxy, January finished a hair below June 2017(+0.70). Would’ve been considered a warm month prior to the super Niño but a step down at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Large negative temperature bias in the Northern Hemisphere. Global Temperatures since 1/1/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GISS for January came in at +0.78° C. I was surprised it was this high considering NCEP reanalysis. GISS January was higher than GISS September 2017 though September was notably higher on NCEP reanalysis. Could be some sort of seasonal bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Using 1981-2010 as the baseline GISS comes in at +0.33C for January while the NCEP reanalysis is +0.28C. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 On 1/31/2018 at 2:57 PM, chubbs said: To kick-off 2018, below is the recently issued UK Met Office Decadal forecast. Per write-up, PDO+ and AMO+ favor warming over the 5-year outlook period after a relatively cool 2018. Green is the CMIP5 predicted range. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc Expand This is probably not real given that noaa maybe fudging the numbers. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/02/20/delingpole-noaa-caught-adjusting-big-freeze-out-of-existence/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 On 2/20/2018 at 5:16 PM, PDIII said: This is probably not real given that noaa maybe fudging the numbers. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/02/20/delingpole-noaa-caught-adjusting-big-freeze-out-of-existence/ Expand No point in reading, Delingpole is full of BS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 On 2/20/2018 at 5:16 PM, PDIII said: This is probably not real given that noaa maybe fudging the numbers. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/02/20/delingpole-noaa-caught-adjusting-big-freeze-out-of-existence/ Expand Maybe read up a bit more from some scientific sources that discuss and explain the contents of that article in detail before posting misinformation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 What stratospheric reversals do to the ocean. This is a global mean, that's a huge movement. Global averaged trade wind speeds have reduced by 65% in the past two weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Euro-reanalysis shows another arctic amplification winter with continental cold focused in Canada+Ntier US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 To illustrate further the effects of land-ocean contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Next year might be El Nino so that would be interesting with how warm N Hemisphere SSTs were this Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 By and large it's not cold where people live. Here is the GFS global temperature reanalysis for the current and upcoming period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 On 5/23/2018 at 2:01 AM, Vice-Regent said: By and large it's not cold where people live. Here is the GFS global temperature reanalysis for the current and upcoming period. Expand To be fair, May looks to be running significantly colder than March or April globally. The decrease in NH temps is especially apparent. We'll see how far the dip in the NH goes with the progged 500mb pattern. So he is correct that the globe has experienced some modest cooling recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 On 5/23/2018 at 7:39 AM, nzucker said: To be fair, May looks to be running significantly colder than March or April globally. The decrease in NH temps is especially apparent. We'll see how far the dip in the NH goes with the progged 500mb pattern. So he is correct that the globe has experienced some modest cooling recently. Expand Global SSTs have also decreased to around 0.19C anomaly after being as high as 0.3C anomaly earlier this year...so that is possibly driving some of the cooling, as well as the pattern over the Northern Hemisphere, which is favoring lower heights in the mid to upper latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 On 5/23/2018 at 7:41 AM, nzucker said: Global SSTs have also decreased to around 0.19C anomaly after being as high as 0.3C anomaly earlier this year...so that is possibly driving some of the cooling, as well as the pattern over the Northern Hemisphere, which is favoring lower heights in the mid to upper latitudes. Expand It's anomalously windy everywhere probably related to the SSW event from January. Really impressive in regards to how long the downstream effects persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2018 Share Posted June 19, 2018 The planet's five warmest Mays have all occurred in the past five years—including 2018, the warmest May on record for Germany, Sweden, the U.S., and more bit.ly/2M2seGO pic.twitter.com/9FbEtzyitK 9:14 AM - 18 Jun 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 June was cool in the arctic, NE Canada and Greenland but warm in Antarctica and Siberia. 3rd warmest June, 0.01 beyond #1 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 5, 2018 Share Posted August 5, 2018 UAH June: +0.21C July: +0.32C Notable warming in the Southern Hemisphere and Tropics, perhaps a result of the emerging El Nino conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 Global warming probably reverses soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 On 8/10/2018 at 4:42 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Global warming probably reverses soon. Expand Reasoning? I think the retracement period is already behind us. Next el nino late 2019? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 11, 2018 Share Posted August 11, 2018 There basically can't be anymore atmosphere depletion without serious recognition. Either that or there's observable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 What is 'atmosphere depletion'? I've not heard the term previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 On 8/12/2018 at 12:22 AM, etudiant said: What is 'atmosphere depletion'? I've not heard the term previously. Expand The global tropics have been soaking up an insane amount of heat because of the monsoons and strong trades. Atlantic basin more fortunate with the negative SAL forcing but still heating robustly below the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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