BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The shortrange guidance will need to be monitored closely tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6z High-Res Nam colder than 0z. Temps don't get above freezing north of I-40 until ~ 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The 6Z RGEM backed off to some degree, limiting the amount of freezing rain east of the Triad. Otherwise, it was close to previous runs. Just to add to the previous discussion, all three winter events in this area this season have been under forecast/poorly modeled outside of 12-24 hours. Take it for what it's worth. By the way, winter weather advisories have been hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 WWA up Total snow up to 1” an. Ice tenth AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC328 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018...Wintry Weather Expected Across Northeast Georgia and theWestern Carolinas Tonight....A moist low pressure system moving out of the gulf coastal regionwill sweep northeast across the southern Appalachians tonight intomid morning Sunday. Temperatures across the region will besupportive of wintry precipitation, likely starting as arain/snow and sleet mix. Precipitation is expected to transitionto freezing rain as the morning evolves for locales along andnorth of Interstate 85. Precipitation will then transition to allrain by late morning as temperatures warm above critical levels.GAZ010-017-018-NCZ068-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001>008-010-031630-/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0010.180204T0600Z-180204T1500Z/Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Cleveland-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-Anderson-Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville, Toccoa,Shelby, Kings Mountain, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills,Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo,Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton,Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla,Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland,Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors,Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg,Gaffney, and Anderson328 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM ESTSUNDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around one tenth are expected.* WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia, and the northwest piedmont and foothills of western North Carolina.* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just glancing over model runs from last night and disco before i head to lake hartwell for fishing tournament. These event has had wheels for days in cad areas and has gotten a few more involved now. Thats awesome imo..i love sleet/pingers...WWA up. Rgem/Nam have held pretty steady for a significant little ice event...maybe a few fatties mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Hrrr looks like it's going to get precip here much quicker than the other short range modeling at 18hrs. It is also colder at the surface, has me at 32/23 at 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Not feeling this one now. Went to bed and it was 26 at around midnight, we should have went pretty low from there , but woke up to 27 degrees!? WTH? Not very cloudy out, wouldn't be suprise dot see 50 degrees today and that's no bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Hrrr looks like it's going to get precip here much quicker than the other short range modeling at 18hrs. It is also colder at the surface, has me at 32/23 at 1am. Honestly, considering this is basically a sw flow event, models always have a hard time with predicting onset of precip. It always seems to come in much quicker than modeled so I would def not be shocked. Good for everyone though, as naturally earlier it comes in colder it will be at onset. We got down to 14 up here last night and temp has only gone up 3 degrees. Curious to see how warm it gets today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Yea, I don't know what Mac is smoking over there. I am currently at my overnight low, 28.4/15 and breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Talk about flirting with disaster. Meso models have us at 31-32 at the onset.. bust one or two degrees above freezing and it's a big nothing burger bust 2 degrees and get to 29 and no one's watching the super bowl tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 TWC had a good segment on this possible threat. Had me at 32 degrees by 10 PM. Just very skeptical on that, has precip starting IMBY around 2 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, WarmNose said: Talk about flirting with disaster. Meso models have us at 31-32 at the onset.. bust one or two degrees above freezing and it's a big nothing burger bust 2 degrees and get to 29 and no one's watching the super bowl tomorrow MMMMM ... Nothing burgers! Have them all the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Talk about flirting with disaster. Meso models have us at 31-32 at the onset.. bust one or two degrees above freezing and it's a big nothing burger bust 2 degrees and get to 29 and no one's watching the super bowl tomorrow You will have to sit at 29 for a while to lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I gotta tell you. Looking at the 12z Nam for the guys along the spine of the Appalachian of NC and into northwestern SC the Nam looks ominous. It looks even colder at 2m then it did at 6z. Moisture also looks a little more abundant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I'm not predicting a bust this big or anything. But just showing the unpredictable nature of these events sometimes. North Georgia was forecasted to not get below 33/34 hours before this event started. It was only during nowcasting time watching dewpoints and temps did we start to realize things could get ugly. Notice how weak the wedging was with this event, (however there was a small meso-high. This weekend's event will be missing that feature). https://www.weather.gov/ffc/20150216_winterstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Anyone happen to notice if last nights Euro run continued to support the Nam and the Canadian models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Here a post from that 2015 storm for reference.... On 2/16/2015 at 12:18 PM, Lookout said: what a huge bust by the nam on temps. gainesville is 31 over 22 with mixed precip when the nam got them to 40 this afternoon. It got me to damn near 50 and it's 37 over 14 with light sleet. Yea, I'm thinking we might finally have a storm busting on the cold side. I think I'm about to wetbulb down to at least 28 or 29 and no short range model had me going below 31... and actually no shortrange model had me going below freezing until around 6 oclock. Also, No model had precip starting before about 3pm here and it has already started. The radar looks absolutely awesome for my area right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Johnson Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Not feeling this one now. Went to bed and it was 26 at around midnight, we should have went pretty low from there , but woke up to 27 degrees!? WTH? Not very cloudy out, wouldn't be suprise dot see 50 degrees today and that's no buenoJust up the road from you and went to bed with 26 and woke up to 17.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, David Johnson said: Just up the road from you and went to bed with 26 and woke up to 17. . Maybe my thermometer broke? Sitting at 30 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I had a low of 14.6 but with sunny skies and no CAA expect it will warm up rapidly today hope the clouds hold off till after dark in order to get some radiational cooling?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 29.7/9 - sunny with a few scattered clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Not feeling this one now. Went to bed and it was 26 at around midnight, we should have went pretty low from there , but woke up to 27 degrees!? WTH? Not very cloudy out, wouldn't be suprise dot see 50 degrees today and that's no buenoSounds like you may need a new thermometer!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I'm sitting at 28-29 per Wunderground stations. It's cold. JC says I get to 34 by 10..I'm skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Can somebody please post the nam snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Can somebody please post the nam snowfall map. It’s not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Can somebody please post the nam snowfall map. So.... yea I am on my phone currently but reviewing the Nam and it’s hi-res models, doesn’t look like much of any snow, even up my way. Pingers or frz rain to start. Once again 3k Nam looks ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I have a Honda eu2000i generator - I think this will be a nuisance event - but, I am out of gas - should I make time to get gas today? (needs non-ethanol gas; I will be at a swim meet all day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3K Nam With another uptick in ICE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, drfranklin said: I have a Honda eu2000i generator - I think this will be a nuisance event - but, I am out of gas - should I make time to get gas today? (needs non-ethanol gas; I will be at a swim meet all day) The spinx on pleasantburg has non ethanol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 3K Nam With another uptick in ICE... Good lord. Almost 1/2” ice over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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