WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, griteater said: That one's in another galaxy compared to this system Meant to add...I like astronomy too Grit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 So those 3km NAM maps above showing "total accumulated freezing rain (in)"...does anyone know how that translates to ice accrual? I know ice accrual depends on many factors, but if you just take a climo/normal/stock accrual rate, I wonder how QPF in inches calculates to actual ice accrual...anyone know? 0.10 to 0.25 QPF is not very much for ice accural Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 00z RGEM looks pretty much the same. It has ice at GSP from 3AM to 10AM....CMC/RGEM have been the coldest models all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, griteater said: So those 3km NAM maps above showing "total accumulated freezing rain (in)"...does anyone know how that translates to ice accrual? I know ice accrual depends on many factors, but if you just take a climo/normal/stock accrual rate, I wonder how QPF in inches calculates to actual ice accrual...anyone know? 0.10 to 0.25 QPF is not very much for ice accural Good question...and would the rates be different for sleet vs. freezing rain? Either one is bad, but great question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Good question...and would the rates be different for sleet vs. freezing rain? Either one is bad, but great question Stock for sleet is 3 to 1. So 1 inch of liquid is 3 inches of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 To bad it's not coming in tonight! I'm sitting at 19/9 right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Thanks February is gonna be fun! Snow is great, but any IP/ZR over the .25 mark is just nasty and I hope our foothills and Western Piedmont doesn't get hit with a IP/ZR event on Super Bowl Sunday...but that just MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 As Grit said earlier, it's hard to imagine the RGEM/GGEM scenario in such a set up. But if anything, the RGEM has double-downed tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 For freezing rain it all depends on rates and temperatures. If it’s 30-32 and rates are light you can get a good bit of accrual but if rates are heavy and temps marginal then very little will actually freeze. The 3km nam seems to indicate heavy rates so I would say less than a tenth for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Sheesh...it actually keeps the freezing rain going well after 18Z Sunday, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Been here for a while and never called in a 'gut-check' but is it me or is this setting up to be a significant IP/ZR for the foothills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 I hope it verifies, But I think all forecasters are discounting it, A Met told me earlier that it was too cold........ I hope the RGEM prove them wrong!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Powerstroke is going to have a field day in Winston Salem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I hope it verifies, But I think all forecasters are discounting it, A Met told me earlier that it was too cold........ I hope the RGEM prove them wrong!! lol Me too. That CAD is hard to move once it sets in. We are real close to blue ridge Parkway, Hillsville Galax. It's usually around 8-10 degrees cooler up there.I know there are times when the CAD is set up it will be warmer up there than in Mt Airy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 So what if the RGEM/CANADIAN/3K NAM are right? All 3 are pretty moderate to significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: Me too. That CAD is hard to move once it sets in. We are real close to blue ridge Parkway, Hillsville Galax. It's usually around 8-10 degrees cooler up there.I know there are times when the CAD is set up it will be warmer up there than in Mt Airy. Yes, I've seen that many times also! About the only time i'm glad I don't live up there!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Will this be more ip or zr? If ip then some travel issues. If zr, then it modest travel issues and power issues to some degree. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WeatherHawk said: bingo! break out the chain saws I have an extra Generator Frosty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: So what if the RGEM/CANADIAN/3K NAM are right? All 3 are pretty moderate to significant. The QPF that is freezing rain on the NAMs is quite light. The RGEM is showing moderate freezing rain QPF amounts...it's on an island really. The overall setup to me favors the light icing scenario. Retreating sfc high moving east off the coast, in situ CAD, warm air from the SW overwelming as the system progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, IWC said: I have an extra Generator Frosty... looks like a big mess...would like to see the next NAM and EURO runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The RGEM continues its longer duration of ZR, the 0z 3k NAM went up on Totals again... just curious, we can't discount what their showing can we? Even half of what they show would be a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Will this be more ip or zr? If ip then some travel issues. If zr, then it modest travel issues and power issues to some degree. TW SE of the mtns it's mostly freezing rain...heavy warm nose moves in quickly...then it comes down to how long the sfc can hang on below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: The QPF that is freezing rain on the NAMs is quite light. The RGEM is showing moderate freezing rain QPF amounts...it's on an island really. The overall setup to me favors the light icing scenario. Retreating sfc high moving east off the coast, in situ CAD, warm air from the SW overwelming as the system progresses I'd say you're about right!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: The RGEM continues its longer duration of ZR, the 0z 3k NAM went up on Totals again... just curious, we can't discount what their showing can we? Even half of what they show would be a lot. But it goes back to my question earlier. If you have 0.1 to 0.25 of liquid on the 3km NAM, I don't think it will be a pure 1 to 1 of ice accretion (i.e. 0.2 of liquid won't be 0.2 inches of ice accretion I don't think....but I don't know for sure)...that's still on the light side though...RGEM is heavier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, IWC said: I have an extra Generator Frosty... I appreciate that Ray, I may need it one these years? I don't think so with this set up though!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 GFS says no wintry precip outside the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just throwing this out their, this is a different setup and storm, but this last one we had, we were only supposed to get 1-3" of snow and we ended up with 9". Just saying that to say, the last storm was not a great setup but definitely overperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS says no wintry precip outside the mountains! Wouldn't use the GFS this close... use the shortrange guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Just throwing this out their, this is a different setup and storm, but this last one we had, we were only supposed to get 1-3" of snow and we ended up with 9". Just saying that to say, the last storm was not a great setup but definitely overperformed. Only because the QPF really ramped up as we got closer. Temps were very marginal and it took a lot of dynamic cooling to bring down the temps. We had great 850 and 925 temps to thanks for that. We lost a decent amount of totals because of temps here. Still overperformed but the temps did not The opposite happens with this storm. After the temp and dew point equalize it won’t cool anymore and the rain will warm the lower air as its falling through waa. If there was a HP feeding cool air in to combat that this couldve been very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Just throwing this out their, this is a different setup and storm, but this last one we had, we were only supposed to get 1-3" of snow and we ended up with 9". Just saying that to say, the last storm was not a great setup but definitely overperformed. Agreed...overperforming seems to be the note lately...last night we were supposed to have about 3 hours of snow and it snowed from about 9PM to around 11AM today...have no data, but feel this is going to be an icy mess for foothills Charlotte NE to Guilford areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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