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Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

WiseWeather

By WiseWeather,
in Southeastern States

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wncsnow

wncsnow

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@BornAgain13 and WNCSNOW, this actually looks like a pretty significant ice event if you go forward thru hr 47 on the 3k. 

Yea, the NAM usually handles CAD pretty well and better than other models, something to watch for sure. It is trending colder for favored areas, but globals still pretty warm

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Lookout said:

Looks like you  probably end up with a decent event.  Initial conditions are cold....especially at your elevation...probably will be close to freezing or  maybe even below freezing when it starts per 950mb temps.  Nam showing temps at 12z sunday in the upper 20s up to 950mb for your location..with temps warming to 33 by 15z...which is probably overdone of course by at least a couple of hours...but even if accurate, models in general show 0.50 to 0.75 by then. You are also lucky in that it looks like it should start as a brief period of snow too. 

I'm fairly confident that areas from gainesville and along/north of 85 will see a moderate event..(edit to add for clarification...thinking 0.10 to 0.20) ..but think only minor icing down this way/athens area (0.10 or less) ..mainly because the depth of the cold layer is a fair bit shallower than just to the north if the nam's soundings are right...plus surface temps/wetbulbs are warmer/marginal. However, the nam is a bit warmer than the canadian, icon and gfs with  temps before precip arrives. All  are several degrees colder which makes a big difference if there will be any freezing rain south of 85. But even if they are more correct, the depth of the cold layer probably means only minor icing (if any at all) down this way before going to all rain by 9am.  Even if temps technically are slightly below freezing longer, the depth and max temp of the warm layer means the rain drops will be so warm that not much of it would freeze. Fortunately i'll likely be in gainesville anyway.   Looks like an all rain event for atlanta...with maybe some  minor icing down to the far northeast burbs as is typical. 

But From hall county northeastward....temps aloft and the surface cold layer are deep enough and cold enough it looks like some respectable glazing appears likely. 

Really curious how the icon does with this system.  I haven't noticed much of a cold bias with it yet but it's been colder down this way consistently for several runs...6 degrees colder in fact at 03z sunday (33) vs the nam (39) and 3 degrees colder than the gfs (36). Interesting the gfs is actually several degrees colder than the nam  before precip starts yet ends up warmer than the nam after precip starts. Gfs really leaves a lot to be desired sometimes. It shows very little temp response to evap cooling...in fact ZERO down this way. 

 

Thanks for the reply. I sure hope so lol.  This reminds me more of the cads we had a while back. Precip moving in and temps gradually trending lower as we approach the start (its also like many other events I remember from ne ga snow to ice to rain) this should be interesting to watch for sure 

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Latest RGEM is trying to hold the wedge through the meat of the heavy precip..trends? Would love to see JC eat crow one last time before he retiresimage.thumb.png.48eb64802ed321355670ca8ca47835bb.png

That's right over my house! 

Johnny just said could be a dusting of sleet/snow around 85 and North, but then shows GFS and Euro , with 0 mix outside the mountains!? I hope he eats 3 plates of crow!

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BornAgain13

BornAgain13

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, griteater said:

No I just think we're going to see light icing accrual with the back 1/2 or back 1/3 of the storm changing over to rain (depending on location)....but not a moderate level icing event...we'll see, just my opinion.

Hard to say that unless your going with GFS and EURO.... The 12k NAM and 3k, RGEM, and Canadian are pretty significant... depending on location. 

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Disc I see you lurking man. What is your thinking at present? 

For this region specifically, I think we see 1-2" of snow MAX before we switch to sleet/ZR. Depending on how long the cold air can stay, which in the Roanoke Valley it tends to linger a bit longer, then we could be talking about 0.10" to 0.20" of ice. At this point I can't see us getting much more ice than that. And remember, a heavy rain at 31 or 32 degrees will not be as efficient at freezing on surfaces -- most of it will be run-off. A lighter rain/drizzle at those temperatures could mean a problem.. BUT lighter precip may also allow the CAD to erode quicker. Very complex and tough forecast. (I hate in-situ CAD)

So as of this post, I really like a blend of the Euro and and 3k NAM. They both erode the wedge by 18z up this way and they also have a quick front-end thump of wet snow, which I believe will happen. I think the RGEM is too far east with the ice. I just can't see anything east of a line from Lynchburg to Martinsville to Wilkesboro getting much. Lastly, I think the GFS is eroding the CAD out too soon. I never like how it handles thermals.

What could work in our favor is having the precip move in sooner. That means more snow and wintry precip before it warms. Later onset means more ice and a quicker transition to rain. 

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Disc said:

For this region specifically, I think we see 1-2" of snow MAX before we switch to sleet/ZR. Depending on how long the cold air can stay, which in the Roanoke Valley it tends to linger a bit longer, then we could be talking about 0.10" to 0.20" of ice. At this point I can't see us getting much more ice than that. And remember, a heavy rain at 31 or 32 degrees will not be as efficient at freezing on surfaces -- most of it will be run-off. A lighter rain/drizzle at those temperatures could mean a problem.. BUT lighter precip may also allow the CAD to erode quicker. Very complex and tough forecast. (I hate in-situ CAD)

So as of this post, I really like a blend of the Euro and and 3k NAM. They both erode the wedge by 18z up this way and they also have a quick front-end thump of wet snow, which I believe will happen. I think the RGEM is too far east with the ice. I just can't see anything east of a line from Lynchburg to Martinsville to Wilkesboro getting much. Lastly, I think the GFS is eroding the CAD out too soon. I never like how it handles thermals.

What could work in our favor is having the precip move in sooner. That means more snow and wintry precip before it warms. Later onset means more ice and a quicker transition to rain. 

Great analysis. Appreciate it. Will be nice to maybe see some fattys ripping for the first time up this way. Keep in touch. 

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GunBlade

GunBlade

Posted
Posted

Many times I see in these CAD situations a tendency for models to over correct leading up to the event.  Once the event gets here it’s usually closer to in between the solutions they’ve showed the prior 3 days or so. 

I can’t count how many times leading up to an event like this I have trended to 30 or 31 degrees and a decent ice storm. Then the day of its 33 and rain and ice accumulations are closer to 77 or maybe 85 at best. 

Not to say it can’t happen but this is not a situation that seems to trend correctly for MY area as we are always right on that line of ice/no ice.  

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Northern Foothills Snowman

Northern Foothills Snowman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

Anyone have an image with the ice totals from December 2002?  Looks like this could be a significant IP/ZR for the foothills, south to Charlotte area and NE up to Guilford County

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/

I've lived here is Surry county all my life. Those CAD are hard to move out. 

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