calculus1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 ^Thanks for posting those maps. I finally went to the weather.us site just now. I didn't realize you could zoom in to the state-level. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Does the Euro show anything for the higher elevations of the smokies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 @wncsnow thanks for all the info. Looks great up my way on the euro. 3-4'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: At 10AM EST (9AM CST), my maps show the 850 0 deg line up around Roanoke...so, I guess this map is saying there is some snow in the preceding hour in the NC mtns. At any rate, there is a lot of warming on the Euro as the storm moves in, for all areas. I suppose if the precip comes in early and forcefully, you could see a few inches accumulate in some mtn areas, but there is potential also for it to be a quick hit of snow with transition to mostly rain there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: At 10AM EST (9AM CST), my maps show the 850 0 deg line up around Roanoke...so, I guess this map is saying there is some snow in the preceding hour in the NC mtns. At any rate, there is a lot of warming on the Euro as the storm moves in, for all areas. I suppose if the precip comes in early and forcefully, you could see a few inches accumulate in some mtn areas, but there is potential also for it to be a quick hit of snow with transition to mostly rain there At 18Z it’s 32 degrees in the immediate foothills per the Euro. So it’s definitely trending colder, as most CAD events do prior to go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: At 18Z it’s 32 degrees in the immediate foothills per the Euro. So it’s definitely trending colder, as most CAD events do prior to go time. Yeah, Euro has been almost torchy for this the last 3-4 days, so to see it getting colder is a good sign for mischief! Plus that map Grit posted is 10 AM, a lot happens before then, especially in more western sections! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Euro not good at wedges temps , so I've heard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: At 18Z it’s 32 degrees in the immediate foothills per the Euro. So it’s definitely trending colder, as most CAD events do prior to go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Yep! I’m due west of that 32 degree mark. Right where that blob extends into McDowell county on the freezing rain accum map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro sucks, we toss ! NAM rules! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment looks pretty nasty up my way too. Im under the large area in Roanoke. Could be something here Sun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 8 hours ago, NEGa said: while It’s not really a “big” storm it looks like a lot of places will see some frozen precip Saturday night into Sunday morning. I am but t surprised that there isn’t a bit more chatter about this. Depending on temps and dew points into Saturday night we could see a mix to freezing rain - and it’s not that far out. If the hires models start picking up on this we could have an interesting Saturday night Looks like you probably end up with a decent event. Initial conditions are cold....especially at your elevation...probably will be close to freezing or maybe even below freezing when it starts per 950mb temps. Nam showing temps at 12z sunday in the upper 20s up to 950mb for your location..with temps warming to 33 by 15z...which is probably overdone of course by at least a couple of hours...but even if accurate, models in general show 0.50 to 0.75 by then. You are also lucky in that it looks like it should start as a brief period of snow too. I'm fairly confident that areas from gainesville and along/north of 85 will see a moderate event..(edit to add for clarification...thinking 0.10 to 0.20) ..but think only minor icing down this way/athens area (0.10 or less) ..mainly because the depth of the cold layer is a fair bit shallower than just to the north if the nam's soundings are right...plus surface temps/wetbulbs are warmer/marginal. However, the nam is a bit warmer than the canadian, icon and gfs with temps before precip arrives. All are several degrees colder which makes a big difference if there will be any freezing rain south of 85. But even if they are more correct, the depth of the cold layer probably means only minor icing (if any at all) down this way before going to all rain by 9am. Even if temps technically are slightly below freezing longer, the depth and max temp of the warm layer means the rain drops will be so warm that not much of it would freeze. Fortunately i'll likely be in gainesville anyway. Looks like an all rain event for atlanta...with maybe some minor icing down to the far northeast burbs as is typical. But From hall county northeastward....temps aloft and the surface cold layer are deep enough and cold enough it looks like some respectable glazing appears likely. Really curious how the icon does with this system. I haven't noticed much of a cold bias with it yet but it's been colder down this way consistently for several runs...6 degrees colder in fact at 03z sunday (33) vs the nam (39) and 3 degrees colder than the gfs (36). Interesting the gfs is actually several degrees colder than the nam before precip starts yet ends up warmer than the nam after precip starts. Gfs really leaves a lot to be desired sometimes. It shows very little temp response to evap cooling...in fact ZERO down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 31 minutes ago, griteater said: Geesh! Burke and McDowell counties...lights out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 When's the next NAM run? 4pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 This will be a fun one to watch play out... I could see it turning in to a pretty big ice-storm considering the time of day/dew points/heavy quick arriving precip. Wedge signature is weak to non-existent though, That's something that could still trend a little stronger. The models generally do a poor job picking up on lee-side in-situ CAD from quick arriving precip in to a cold-dry airmass. You can see the boundary created here from the in-situ wedge, just need it to trend stronger with a more noticeable Northeast breeze. This when will come down to now casting, and could be anywhere from a non-event to a warning criteria ice event, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: When's the next NAM run? 4pm? It's running now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 any freezing rain would of course be self limiting since you can clearly see on that map there is no source of cold dry our to our north, but if we wetbulb down to 29 or 30 degrees as the heavy precip moves in, that could still lay down .25+ of ice accretion before we hit 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: When's the next NAM run? 4pm? Nam is weaker with the northern wave this run. Less precip and delayed somewhat out to 35. Well I take that back somewhat. Nam is extremely juiced up at 42. Will post a map here in a second. Doesn't want to go as crazy with the northern wave, which will help with the wedging if you are looking for snow and or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 18z NAM 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 3K Nam has a very pronounced wedge. I cannot keep up as to which Nam is better nowadays anymore lol between the 3k, 12k etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: 3K Nam has a very pronounced wedge. I cannot keep up as to which Nam is better nowadays anymore lol between the 3k, 12k etc.. I know what you mean, But both look pretty Icy in CAD areas and up your way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Inching closer to the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 High Res NAM is VERY close to freezing during the bulk of the precip, in the CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just now, JoshM said: High Res NAM is VERY close to freezing during the bulk of the precip, in the CAD areas. Yeah, if temps are off by a degree or 3, it could be pretty bad for some! Save it for posterity, but I'm betting mby , doesn't go below 34 at any point Sat night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 @BornAgain13 and WNCSNOW, this actually looks like a pretty significant ice event if you go forward thru hr 47 on the 3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 NAM clown map, there ya go mack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Latest NWS for my area. SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Snow and sleet likely after midnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Not as cool with lows around 30. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. .SUNDAY...Sleet, snow with a chance of freezing rain in the morning. Rain. Light snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Now it seems the 3k and Canadian are coming closer together... but are the overdone or do they actually see the CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 @Disc I see you lurking man. What is your thinking at present? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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