Upstate Tiger Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 48 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Here's the text of that AFD. I read it as saying the mountains will get advisory-level snowfall. I'm not sure if they are also leaning toward advisory for freezing rain outside of the mountains: Yep, meant to say for "some" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 What are the odds precip moves in and locks that cold air in place for a longer time period than is being modeled (even by meso models) ? There's no doubt in my mind this thing goes over to rain at some point here in the CAD favored upstate, but when? Timing and how amp'd the low is are big time factors with this one IMO. I feel like we've seen this movie before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 12z NAM 12k sill Icy looking in CAD areas looks like some would have 6 hours of Mix/ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Model soundings indicate a very dry layer between 700-850MB overnight Saturday. If that were to erode faster, we'd have more frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, NEGa said: while It’s not really a “big” storm it looks like a lot of places will see some frozen precip Saturday night into Sunday morning. I am but t surprised that there isn’t a bit more chatter about this. Depending on temps and dew points into Saturday night we could see a mix to freezing rain - and it’s not that far out. If the hires models start picking up on this we could have an interesting Saturday night You can definitely tell when rdu and charlotte area arent in the mix for an event! I think it could be a nice event at the onset for our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just now, oconeexman said: You can definitely tell when rdu and charlotte area arent in the mix for an event! I think it could be a nice event at the onset for our areas. Yep you’re right. If the 12Z 3k NAM is right, some folks in the foothills may not be watching the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, WarmNose said: What are the odds precip moves in and locks that cold air in place for a longer time period than is being modeled (even by meso models) ? There's no doubt in my mind this thing goes over to rain at some point here in the CAD favored upstate, but when? Timing and how amp'd the low is are big time factors with this one IMO. I feel like we've seen this movie before I think the 3km NAM has a good handle on it. Snow>Sleet>Rain changeover in the mtns with light frz rain glazing SE of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The 3k NAM is pretty impressive... If the 12z RGEM agrees, I'm on board.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, oconeexman said: You can definitely tell when rdu and charlotte area arent in the mix for an event! I think it could be a nice event at the onset for our areas. I know right lol. It looks decent for some wintry wx for some of us. We haven’t had a cad event to track for a while it seems. Plus it’s on the weekend which is even better lol. Some of the models are showing .2” or so it looks like hopefully the trends will be our friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 12km NAM surface temperature trend at 7AM Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 ^Trending colder and colder, grit. The 12Z 3K NAM showed a couple of rounds of frozen precipitation for areas in NW NC. An initial IP/ZR hit, a brief break, and then redevelopment of ZR over the same area. This shows the CAD really locking in for Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Rgem agree's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, calculus1 said: ^Trending colder and colder, grit. The 12Z 3K NAM showed a couple of rounds of frozen precipitation for areas in NW NC. An initial IP/ZR hit, a brief break, and then redevelopment of ZR over the same area. This shows the CAD really locking in for Sunday morning. Hickory soundings on 3km NAM for 6AM and 11AM...it shows the temp profile evolution and good rising motion for precip generation (omega values on the left hand side) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 This all looks kind of dicey, but I'll bet 50:1, temps won't get below freezing imby Sat night before precip gets here. This airnass isn't exceedingly cold and thick cloud cover the whole night screams temps locking at about 34/35 and ZR won't be a concern in my area! I'm just hoping to see a burst of sleet, maybe a flake!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Thanks for the above, grit. I'm no expert on sounding readings, but that looks like a possibility for sleet at 6 AM and straight up freezing rain still going on at 11 AM (though it's hard for much ZR to accumulate right at 32 F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: This all looks kind of dicey, but I'll bet 50:1, temps won't get below freezing imby Sat night before precip gets here. This airnass isn't exceedingly cold and thick cloud cover the whole night screams temps locking at about 34/35 and ZR won't be a concern in my area! I'm just hoping to see a burst of sleet, maybe a flake!? Precip begins in GSP 4AM to 7AM. Your temp/dewpoints... RGEM: 4AM 31/19, 7AM 30/27 3km NAM: 4AM 34/23, 7AM 32/30, 10AM 33/32 Reg NAM: 4AM 32/25, 7AM 32/29, 10AM 34/33 Bottom line: a light glazing is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 The GGEM is a serious ice storm for many, but its pretty much on an island: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: The GGEM is a serious ice storm for many, but its pretty much on an island: IMO it's also too far east with the significant icing in this situation. I think any significant icing would be confined to the foothills, especially the northern foothills like Wilkes and Surry and into southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 What is the CMC seeing? Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: What is the CMC seeing? Wow! Cold bias, keep an eye on the NAM from here on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 All we need to know is B rad P, is all in on this one !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Man just when I thought the threat was over! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 euro is showing a nice front end hit of snow for a lot of WNC and transitioning slower to rain east of Blue Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, wncsnow said: euro is showing a nice front end hit of snow for a lot of WNC and transitioning slower to rain east of Blue Ridge Show any icing for Danville like the NAM and RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, wncsnow said: euro is showing a nice front end hit of snow for a lot of WNC and transitioning slower to rain east of Blue Ridge I'm kind of wondering myself, as I saw .5-.8 falls over a good majority of us during the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Show any icing for Danville like the NAM and RGEM? Very close, shows some ice in western Pittsylvania over to Martinsville down the spine of Blue Ridge. Shows a little snow to start for those areas too less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Anybody got any Euro maps that they can share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: Anybody got any Euro maps that they can share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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