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Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

WiseWeather

By WiseWeather,
in Southeastern States

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted

When it comes to CAD or any in-situ events, the NAM is typically one of the better models for handling things. There is just too much WAA in this event, marginal cold to start, weakening HP sliding OTS and a bad low track that quickly erodes any weak wedge that forms. Western NC might see a burst of snow to freezing rain as this starts but that's about it IMO.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

RAH Thur Afternoon: 

Things get very interesting on Sunday morning as a weak wedge 
remains over the area and a Miller B type system begins to approach 
from the southwest consisting of two low pressure systems, one to 
the south and one to the northwest of central NC. These systems 
usually are a challenge for P-type forecasting and this system is no 
different. As such there will be a brief period between 6-9z where 
rain or snow or even sleet will be possible, but there is also a 
chance that precipitation holds off until a little later, in which 
case all rain or freezing rain is the most likely scenario given the 
large warm nose in the forecast soundings and provided surface 
temperatures fall low enough overnight. We will call it a mixed bag 
for now and the greatest threat of this will be in the Triad and the 
VA border counties between 6-13z sunday. At this time no 
accumulation of snow or ice is expected. After 13z, temperatures 
will warm and precipitation will change to all rain. Significant 
rain is expected Sunday and Sunday night with totals between a half 
of an inch and an inch possible. As the system moves out early 
Monday morning there will be a chance for some snow flurries but it 
will be a case of cold air chasing the moisture and at this time 
looks like it may not catch up in time to see any snow. This will 
continue to be a very difficult forecast over the next couple of 
days so stay tuned for updates as the system evolves.
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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

Looks less and less likely Sunday is a good snow event, I was hoping for a all day or most of the day snow but it looks more and more as we get closer that the cold air will be moving out thus a change over to maybe sleet but mostly rain Sunday afternoon, the next two weeks don't look good either, we're going to run out of time, we just can't get the cold to hang in there when we get a storm to come out of the Gulf.  Frustrated I guess.

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Looks less and less likely Sunday is a good snow event, I was hoping for a all day or most of the day snow but it looks more and more as we get closer that the cold air will be moving out thus a change over to maybe sleet but mostly rain Sunday afternoon, the next two weeks don't look good either, we're going to run out of time, we just can't get the cold to hang in there when we get a storm to come out of the Gulf.  Frustrated I guess.

Highest impacts will be just to the east of the mountains where the colder surface air gets trapped and changes the snow over to sleet and freezing rain around lunch time. 

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Blacksburg Went from mod. accumulation to Lgt accumulation in the evening package!! Tomorrow I expect MAYBE rain/snow mix in forecast................ 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. Snow likely after midnight. Little or
no snow accumulation. Not as cool with lows in the upper 20s.
Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Rain and snow in the morning, then rain in the
afternoon. Light snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s.
Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain in the evening. Lows in the lower 30s.
Chance of rain near 100 percent.
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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

while It’s not really a “big” storm it looks like a lot of places will see some frozen precip Saturday night into Sunday morning. I am but t surprised that there isn’t a bit more chatter about this.  Depending on temps and dew points into Saturday night we could see a mix to freezing rain - and it’s not that far out. If the hires models start picking up on this we could have an interesting Saturday night 

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

GSP going with at least advisory level threat for Sunday morning.....

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Here's the text of that AFD.  I read it as saying the mountains will get advisory-level snowfall.  I'm not sure if they are also leaning toward advisory for freezing rain outside of the mountains:

Quote 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Friday:  The short term fcst period kicks off
on Saturday morning amidst quasizonal H5 flow across the southern
Appalachian region, among broader central/eastern CONUS trofing.
At the surface, cool/dry high pressure should be migrating
east, likely moving overhead of the western Carolinas at fcst
initialization.  Pattern evolution through the period will feature
said high pressure shifting east on Saturday keeping conditions dry
with temperatures below normal.  Meanwhile to the west, a series of
shortwave impulses will dive through the flow aloft, the strongest
of which in the southern stream moving through the Arklatex region
with surface cyclogenesis expected beneath along the I10 corridor.

At that point the fcst becomes increasingly complex as the
aforementioned surface cyclone slides northeast into GA and the
Carolinas into Sunday morning bringing at least modest amounts
of moisture along with it.  The complexity lies in the eventual
evolution of the airmass across the fcst area that the moisture
mentioned above will be moving into.  Specifically, the cool/dry
high pressure (that should by that time be over the Atlantic)
will likely lead to at least minimal in-situ CAD wedging east
of the mtns.  Therefore it looks like the region is in store for
at least a short lived mixed ptype winter event Sunday morning.
Analyzing critical thicknesses across the Nam/GFS/ECMWF solutions,
as well as fcst soundings, it seems that precipitation will move
into the region from the west after midnight, likely as a r/s/ip
mix early on across the NE GA, the western Upstate, and the western
NC mtns as the warm nose has yet to get established.  With time,
said warm nosing will intrude with waa leading to a change over to
ra/fzra along/north of I85 initially, spreading further northward
into mid/late morning to affect nearly all locales in western NC.
The above mentioned thermal profiles would suggest all liquid
ptypes by nlt noon on Sunday before changing back over to ra/sn
across the high terrain as caa prevails behind the actual cold
fropa Sunday night.  This mtn nwfs is favored to persist through
the night, eventually tapering off into midday Monday as cold/dry
high pressure works into the region from the west to round out
the period.  All in all, total snow/ice accumulations are certainly
in flux at this point, however probabilistic snow/ice runs favor
measurable accums along/north of I85 on Sunday morning, with near
advisory level snowfall suggested across the NC mtns.

 

 

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
Posted
Just now, calculus1 said:

Here's the text of that AFD.  I read it as saying the mountains will get advisory-level snowfall.  I'm not sure if they are also leaning toward advisory for freezing rain outside of the mountains:

 

 

I’m not sure I understand why mtns are more favorable in this setup. Warm air is going to be flooding in at the upper levels. Highest impacts will be just east of the blue ridge where the cold air gets trapped. I’m not sure what I’m missing here. Thoughts?

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, NEGa said:

while It’s not really a “big” storm it looks like a lot of places will see some frozen precip Saturday night into Sunday morning. I am but t surprised that there isn’t a bit more chatter about this.  Depending on temps and dew points into Saturday night we could see a mix to freezing rain - and it’s not that far out. If the hires models start picking up on this we could have an interesting Saturday night 

Maybe because it's just an onset type of situation, most likely changing to rain. And seems very localized to n GA and Western Carolinas, it will be too warm from HKY eastward. And I guess it's not in the prime/heavy poster - centric areas, not a big deal for CLT and such! Could see a glaze or coating of sleet if it's heavy enough and temps cooperate for NEGA and W Carolinas.  The local news outlets have gone from rain, to now snow, sleet , freezing rain to start, over to rain!

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m not sure I understand why mtns are more favorable in this setup. Warm air is going to be flooding in at the upper levels. Highest impacts will be just east of the blue ridge where the cold air gets trapped. I’m not sure what I’m missing here. Thoughts?

I think NWS GSP is very confident in initial snowfall amounts for the mountains, before the WAA arrives.  The amounts appear to be enough for advisories to be issued.  I think they are less confident in the amount and type of precipitation that will fall along and to the east of the Blue Ridge.  If the precipitation gets in early enough, and if the lower-level temperatures get locked in below freezing, then there does appear to be the possibility of mixed p-types changing to all freezing rain before transitioning to just plain rain later in the day.  Thus, look for greater confidence in their discussions as we near the event.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RDU folks, we're going to have to watch temps (especially dew points) as we go through tomorrow. The Canadian has RDU with close to .2 (two tenths) of freezing rain. If the air is just a little colder (which it may end up being) and the precip moves in a little faster we could get over the .25 (quarter inch) which would jump us to winter storm criteria. At this point, I would say it's still low probability (need other model support) but still something to keep an eye on.   

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