wncsnow Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Better hope this one produces for some folks because the pattern looks like poo poo and very nina ish now for next few weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I’m riding ICON and CMC until the wheels fall off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 28 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m riding ICON and CMC until the wheels fall off Icon has me at 31 with precip falling, guess it'll be a nowcasting situation and just see how warm it can get on Saturday. Pretty decent cold shot, so who knows. I'm sure Frosty still gets 3" by accident! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 NAM just got real interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 NAM still to warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 54 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m riding ICON and CMC until the wheels fall off Yea I agree with you on that. They have been rock solid for multiple runs in a row. GFS has been jumping around a lot with this setup. Looks to be a GGEM,CMC,ICON and to an extent EURO vs the american models. Nam is def still too warm, even for me, I agree @BornAgain13 but could simply just be keying on putting too much emphasis on the primary low, which in turn would allow the cold to hang around a bit longer should the southern stream be more dominant. Edit: Actually looking between 72-75, Nam made some improvements up this way, albeit 850s are already north of me and 2m temps are below. Sounds like a nice glaze would occur before flipping. Will be interesting to see which way models trend today. Lends a little credence to what @Blue_Ridge_Escarpment was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 That should just about do it for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: That should just about do it for this event. Not for WNC. ICON has been rock steady. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018020112&fh=84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Not for WNC. ICON has been rock steady. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018020112&fh=84 That is the ICON he posted! Latest run has NO snow even for mountains, according to his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That is the ICON he posted! Latest run has NO snow even for mountains, according to his post. 12Z ICON does have snow for WNC. Warning criteria snow. The time stamps he posted are after the snow has stopped in WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sw NC weather Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: That is the ICON he posted! Latest run has NO snow even for mountains, according to his post. It has a solid 3-6 inch event for all of wnc at onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Also, per the ICON surface temps stay 32 or below for the entire event for the immediate CAD areas of NC. So ICON is actually more wintry than the surface maps are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Also, per the ICON surface temps stay 32 or below for the entire event for the immediate CAD areas of NC. So ICON is actually more wintry than the surface maps are showing. That's interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 You need QC to put one of his "I gurantee/take it to the bank" forecast out. Then youll be in business: lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Also, per the ICON surface temps stay 32 or below for the entire event for the immediate CAD areas of NC. So ICON is actually more wintry than the surface maps are showing. Yeah the ptype maps for the ICON on TTidbits doesn't show ice...just rain or snow. 12z CMC is pretty much the same as previous runs. Euro/NAM/GFS are in the camp of a light wintry event. ICON and CMC have a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 12Z ICON does have snow for WNC. Warning criteria snow. The time stamps he posted are after the snow has stopped in WNC 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah the ptype maps for the ICON on TTidbits doesn't show ice...just rain or snow. 12z CMC is pretty much the same as previous runs. Euro/NAM/GFS are in the camp of a light wintry event. ICON and CMC have a little more. The ICON and CMC have done well this winter but it's really hard to beat a Euro/NAM/UKMET combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 You have storms that are primed to be overachievers(last event) and those primed to be underachievers(sunday). I cant see this being anything much more than flurries at the start and maybe a tree top glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: The ICON and CMC have done well this winter but it's really hard to beat a Euro/NAM/UKMET combination. The 12 km Nam is a wintry onset too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Yeah the NAM jumped into the ICON/CMC camp at 12 Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Even with the NAM at 12z, it's only showing 0.06 of ZR on the extracted data for places like Morganton/Lenoir airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Guys, chalk up 12z gfs as trending more toward a CMC,GGEM and ICON evolution, as it is backing away from the northern stream dominant idea and more toward a flatter suppressed system (definitely what we want, at least for WNC folks and myself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 CMC 850mb temperature trend for Sunday at 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 CMC Freezing Rain... Prob ably not likely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 CMC Surface temperature trend for Sunday at 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 ^Not good trends on the CMC... Thanks for posting those maps, griteater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 The CMC is way out on the cold fringes of guidance. It does pretty well with these sorts of storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Brad Panovich just posted a video, he thinks the models arent handling the cad very well... anyone else agree that their could be a decent period of freezing rain in the CAD areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Brad Panovich just posted a video, he thinks the models arent handling the cad very well... anyone else agree that their could be a decent period of freezing rain in the CAD areas? It's possible, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 I would feel more confident in significant impacts if it was two weeks ago and we were coming out of a historic cold snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Brad Panovich just posted a video, he thinks the models arent handling the cad very well... anyone else agree that their could be a decent period of freezing rain in the CAD areas? Am I missing something wrt to cad here? I guess this is just a straight in-situ wedge situation? There's really no high to the north and if so its under 1020? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.