downeastnc Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Seen some good wet snows at 34. Heck even 36. West of 77 and north of 40 looks good on this storm. Yeah your 850's are good enough barely to keep it snow so if rates are good enough you can get snow....still you guys need a east shift to get anything decent out of it and the trend has been west if anything on all the models except the CMC.....so hope for a sharper deeper trough so this thing trends SE a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Yeah your 850's are good enough barely to keep it snow so if rates are good enough you can get snow....still you guys need a east shift to get anything decent out of it and the trend has been west if anything on all the models except the CMC.....so hope for a sharper deeper trough so this thing trends SE a bit Just cheating off Mid Atlantic forum, Euro looks better already for the snowier camps. Looks like a solid 2-5 or 3-6 front end thump for western VA. Farther up 81 is a warning event taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 downeast - the action on the CMC is overnight and early morning Sun before it warms. But anyway, the Euro is inland with the low and warm too so it's GFS/Euro/UKMet vs. CMC (ICON is in between)...this won't end well I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Just cheating off Mid Atlantic forum, Euro looks better already for the snowier camps. Looks like a solid 2-5 or 3-6 front end thump for western VA. Farther up 81 is a warning event taken verbatim. But it quickly transitions to rain and washes everything away unless you are in far northern VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: But it quickly transitions to rain and washes everything away unless you are in far northern VA... At this point in my life and this horrid winter, if I can get 3 or 4'' out of this it is a gosh darn win. Man all year everything is squashed and now we are headed toward warm and amped can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Just cheating off Mid Atlantic forum, Euro looks better already for the snowier camps. Looks like a solid 2-5 or 3-6 front end thump for western VA. Farther up 81 is a warning event taken verbatim. You are in a better spot than most of the NC posters that low track needs to move SE like the ICON/CMC has it and even then the cold air supply sucks and its a stale air mass...I just wouldnt hang to much hope on this one being more than a few hrs of snow before going to rain for most folks that do actually see snow....could be good though just east of the mts in VA north were the cold hangs on longer. The good thing is it has several days to trend towards a deeper trough and maybe keep that low track more on the coast and not over central NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: But it quickly transitions to rain and washes everything away unless you are in far northern VA... Is that not the best kind? Watch it pile up for about 6 hours, enjoy it, wash it away, and get about your business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Is that not the best kind? Watch it pile up for about 6 hours, enjoy it, wash it away, and get about your business No I rather have a foot of snow with temps in the 20's and watch it wreck business for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: At this point in my life and this horrid winter, if I can get 3 or 4'' out of this it is a gosh darn win. Man all year everything is squashed and now we are headed toward warm and amped can't win. Yea I feel bad for some folks who have missed out. The pattern the next 7 days does not look great for snow or wintry precip for much of NC/VA. I am only disappointed because I detest cold rain (not the poster :)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Euro is close in MBY, but with only about 1"... Roanoke to Lynchburg around 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Euro is close in MBY, but with only about 1"... Roanoke to Lynchburg around 4" Like I said, a 4'' storm, I would call that a huge win for my area. I would actually be stoked if this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Lets hope some folks can score Sun/Mon. No matter how you slice it everyone below 3,000 come Monday has 1 solid month left/ exactly 4 weeks till its March 5th. Yes several have and will score past March 5th from time to time but opportunities will start winding way down/almost coming to a hault by the end of the 1st week of March. So pucker up and be willing to kiss / love on any pig slop mother nature will throw your way cause the saloon is about to shut down for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 GSP's afternoon discussion sounds a lot worse for wintry weather fans, mostly rain Sun after brief mix at onset, outside of mtns and rain for clipper Tuesday outside the mtns! Winter going out with a bang! SMDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GSP's afternoon discussion sounds a lot worse for wintry weather fans, mostly rain Sun after brief mix at onset, outside of mtns and rain for clipper Tuesday outside the mtns! Winter going out with a bang! SMDH On the other hand RAH keeps things status quo for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 NAM has the low even further north than the 12z GFS. Well outside of it's range but something to watch for to see if other guidance falls in line later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: Just cheating off Mid Atlantic forum, Euro looks better already for the snowier camps. Looks like a solid 2-5 or 3-6 front end thump for western VA. Farther up 81 is a warning event taken verbatim. Isn't WNC warning event also, looks to be snow the whole event to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 18Z GFS says ice for CAD areas of Nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Current forecast for my area, But will definitely change one way or another!!! At this point not expecting anything, token flakes mixed in would be a bonus.............. SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 40 percent. .SUNDAY...Snow and rain. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Rain, mainly in the evening. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Looking at today's models, as well as taking Climo into account, the Superbowl Sunday threat is something that should not be taken lightly, IMHO. I think one of two things will happen with this system: 1.) The small disturbance that is progged to push through on Friday will help slow down the HP that is funneling through. This will serve as a hybrid type of blocking, which will aid with keeping the HP from exiting stage right. The cold air will be able to hang around, which will alter the Precipitation type, which will be MORE of a MIXED BAG of ip/sn, with periods of rain mixed in. The CAD will be sorely underestimated by the models. I personally feel that when all is said and done, the surface temps will end up SIGNIFICANTLY colder than progged. ~OR~ 2.) In-situ damning will take place, with the same end result, but possibly MORE rain than mix of ip/SN, because of kess colder air to work with. The models have been keying on this moreso than # 1. I feel the trends will turn tonight or by 12z runs tomorrow, which will show more deeper/colder solutions. NOTE # 1: I have included a shot of the 18z GFS. Notice the CAD showing up more pronounced than in previous, recent runs?? This will only deepen as we get closer to "go time". NOTE # 2: The OVERALL trend this year has been for winter threats to end up with a more deeper, colder solution, as we edge closer to the "go time". The Operational Models have been horrible with keying in on this, IN THIS TIMEFRAME WE ARE IN NOW. Watch for more changes tonight and especially tomorrow. It seems a blend of the ICON/Canadian has been the winner in the past Storms. No? Please flame away. I am trying to put my 2 pennies on this. Thanks and let's hope we can still have a FAB FEB, MACK BUFFET STYLE. LMAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 29 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Looking at today's models, as well as taking Climo into account, the Superbowl Sunday threat is something that should not be taken lightly, IMHO. I think one of two things will happen with this system: 1.) The small disturbance that is progged to push through on Friday will help slow down the HP that is funneling through. This will serve as a hybrid type of blocking, which will aid with keeping the HP from exiting stage right. The cold air will be able to hang around, which will alter the Precipitation type, which will be MORE of a MIXED BAG of ip/sn, with periods of rain mixed in. The CAD will be sorely underestimated by the models. I personally feel that when all is said and done, the surface temps will end up SIGNIFICANTLY colder than progged. ~OR~ 2.) In-situ damning will take place, with the same end result, but possibly MORE rain than mix of ip/SN, because of kess colder air to work with. The models have been keying on this moreso than # 1. I feel the trends will turn tonight or by 12z runs tomorrow, which will show more deeper/colder solutions. NOTE # 1: I have included a shot of the 18z GFS. Notice the CAD showing up more pronounced than in previous, recent runs?? This will only deepen as we get closer to "go time". NOTE # 2: The OVERALL trend this year has been for winter threats to end up with a more deeper, colder solution, as we edge closer to the "go time". The Operational Models have been horrible with keying in on this, IN THIS TIMEFRAME WE ARE IN NOW. Watch for more changes tonight and especially tomorrow. It seems a blend of the ICON/Canadian has been the winner in the past Storms. No? Please flame away. I am trying to put my 2 pennies on this. Thanks and let's hope we can still have a FAB FEB, MACK BUFFET STYLE. LMAO! Nice post, and a high in that position could work! CMC might not be off its rocker!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 00z GFS is warmer again! Looks like we can stick a fork in this one, And punt till at least Mid Month............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 We still got the CMC Mack!! lol 00z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Cmc refuses to waiver. To early to fork this one frosty. I'd wait, espeacilly from you up into northern mtns. Gfs was even a tick colder at 850, still warm up there. Until canadian gives hang tight. Been consistent for 6 + runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 GEM has a pretty stout wedge look with no HP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 27 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: 00z GFS is warmer again! Looks like we can stick a fork in this one, And punt till at least Mid Month............... 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: GEM has a pretty stout wedge look with no HP? It's because it tracks sfc lp futher south and east. Waa doesn't cause an inferno up at 5000 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Cmc refuses to waiver. To early to fork this one frosty. I'd wait, espeacilly from you up into northern mtns. Gfs was even a tick colder at 850, still warm up there. Until canadian gives hang tight. Been consistent for 6 + runs now. Yeah, you're right when the 12z Euro give me 2-3 inches, see which way it leans tonight, towards GFS or the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Goofy focuses on the northern lp makes it dominant. Cmc let's southern become main player and it doesn't draw the waa up like gfs. Euro and icon lean more toward the southern vort being the main vort and amping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 6z GFS = no snow or ice outside the mountains, and barely any there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Not as cool with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 50 percent. .SUNDAY...Snow in the morning. Rain. Moderate snow accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent. Blacksburg says still a chance here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 Icon looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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