Rainforrest Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Light snow here starting to whiten up temp 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopack42 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hvward said: Light snow to begin here in Candler, NC. Will be interesting to see how long it lasts. . Starting to sleet here in Black Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Starting to sleet here in Black Mountain. I believe I have some sleet mixing in as well. Road in front of my house is white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Very light snow falling at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Been raining for a bit..then just had a sleet shower. Temps now at freezing with deck and cars lightly coated 32/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Still a brutal ice storm being depicted on the rgem at 6z for western nc and s va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Still a brutal ice storm being depicted on the rgem at 6z for western nc and s va. Yeah we will see if right. I suspect it will be west of me however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GASnowman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Freezing Rain here in NE GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncgolfguy Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 On and off drizzle here in Fallston since 5 AM temperature has dropped 2 1/2° in one hour I have 32.2 on my home thermometer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 yeah, it looks like not much of anything now in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 6Z RGEM map I forgot to post before. Still bringing the goods. Mack is still at 1'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3K Nam not nearly as aggressive as RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Finally here is 6z GFS output. Not looking good for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 FYI, the Rgem has 1 inch totals b/c it keeps those area's at 32 for longer. That doesn't mean 1 inch of freezing rain acrues. In fact, there could be 0 accural at 32. So take the accumulation maps with a grain of salt. It appears the Rgem has absolutely nailed the 32 degree line across the area this morning, the ridiculous freezing rain totals on those outputs won't verify though b/c most of isnt freezing with temps in the 31/32 range. I still think GSP up to Hickory will get .25 of acrual though, if not more up towards hickory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: FYI, the Rgem has 1 inch totals b/c it keeps those area's at 32 for longer. That doesn't mean 1 inch of freezing rain acrues. In fact, there could be 0 accural at 32. So take the accumulation maps with a grain of salt. It appears the Rgem has absolutely nailed the 32 degree line across the area this morning, the ridiculous freezing rain totals on those outputs won't verify though b/c most of isnt freezing with temps in the 31/32 range. I still think GSP up to Hickory will get .25 of acrual though, if not more up towards hickory the RGEM had me forecasted at lower temp overnight than I what I recorded - GSP has me changing to all rain at 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, drfranklin said: the RGEM had me forecasted at lower temp overnight than I what I recorded - GSP has me changing to all rain at 9am 9 or 10am temps rising to 32/33 is what the rgem has been showing as well. Precip should be moving out around that time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Looks like RNK may end up being correct! Didn’t get quite as cold as I thought it would, I thought it would get down to 28 or 29 but not happening bottomed out at 30.2 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrtsdsn Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 sitting at 30 degrees with heavy rain in Stanfield NC east of charlotte. they just posted winter weather advisory until noon. it was 36 at 7am. nothing accumulating as far as i can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: 6Z RGEM map I forgot to post before. Still bringing the goods. Mack is still at 1'' Stuck at 33.4 all night, winter sucks and I hate weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3k NAM nailed this one for my area. Just like I said it would. Never bet against the 3k. Always bet against the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: 6Z RGEM map I forgot to post before. Still bringing the goods. Mack is still at 1'' 2 more degrees and this would have verified. I thought the temps initialized wrong on the RGEM. The last run of the night had MBY at 31 while I sat at a balmy 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Never bet on one model when every other one doesn’t agree with it. RGEM was always alone. The HRRR eroded the CAD way too quick but the RGEM was way too cold. And where is the freezing line setup? Just north of 85.....not surprising in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Yep. Still under 32 here (31.7) with the heaviest precip of the day rolling through. Pines are drooping on the ends of the branches but nothing serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 hours ago, GunBlade said: Never bet on one model when every other one doesn’t agree with it. RGEM was always alone. The HRRR eroded the CAD way too quick but the RGEM was way too cold. And where is the freezing line setup? Just north of 85.....not surprising in this setup. I would argue that the RGEM was right on the money, if you interpret the freezing rain map correctly. I got close to three quarters of an inch of rain while the temperature was below freezing. So, it correctly forecast rain during freeing temperatures for MBY. However, a lot of that became runoff, so only about 25% of it accrued. As grit's been arguing lately, those ZR accumulation maps need to be tempered with a proper ratio of accrual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I would argue that the RGEM was right on the money, if you interpret the freezing rain map correctly. I got close to three quarters of an inch of rain while the temperature was below freezing. So, it correctly forecast rain during freeing temperatures for MBY. However, a lot of that became runoff, so only about 25% of it accrued. As grit's been arguing lately, those ZR accumulation maps need to be tempered with a proper ratio of accrual. Agree I thought even yesterday RGEM was on top of it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Well got up and looked outside at 6 this morning and the ground and driveway were covered with snow then sleet started and then around 8 freezing rain was coming down hard, then it all came to an end with just plain rain, then it ended around 10, kinda what they predicted, a little disappointed that it didn't over perform, I guess that dreaded warm nose got us again, maybe the next storm will have some cold air to work with but next weekend looks like all rain for four days, where is the cold air when we need it, this was a dud for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 6 hours ago, Wow said: Yep. Still under 32 here (31.7) with the heaviest precip of the day rolling through. Pines are drooping on the ends of the branches but nothing serious. I was thinking it’s been a long time since we’ve had a significant just ZR event. Today had to have been the first in at least 6 years or even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Any black ice issues tonight? There are no statements about it from the weather service for the triad region. Maybe the wind will dry the roads before it gets cold enough??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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