BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Disc said: Yes. Also, heavier rates won't freeze as well at 31 or 32 degrees. If you actually want efficient ice accrual, hope for lighter precip. Thanks for the response Disc!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Hunch this thing overperforms on QPF looking at early returns across the gulf coast. Temps rise quicker for most outside of the lees but somebody from Morganton/Hickory to ROA is about to get schmacked with ice. I think by the time we see ice accruals here in the triad the temps will already be boarderline and melting. Edit- just saw the RGEM after I posted....makes it more interesting for the northern I40 corridor for sure but I still think rates are gonna warm this up quick. Not gonna wait up for a little ZR storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 25 minutes ago, Snow dog said: That better not be right, or I won't be watching the Super Bowl tomorrow!.. Or the highlights 5 days later....holy moly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Frosty, has this individual been involved in cad type setups then? They are nothing to mess with. The same way the cold air funnels down the appalachians and then refuses to budge is the same way events happened when I still lived in CT. The cold air would funnel down the St Lawrence Valley and literally get trapped and could not get out. As Disc alluded to and I asked to have confirmation, even if it is overdone by 1/2 of the total, for me I would still be looking at 1/2'' of ice accretion. That is devastating to this area and areas further to my southwest, namely Mack and Burrell, etc.. I would tread very careful when overthinking cad setups. They are unreal to forecast. The problem with the HRRR that I have little knowledge on is cannot pick up on the shallow boundaries, whereas it cannot see the low level cold as some of the other models and such can. Just my two cents on the whole thing. But just to note again, 1/2 inch of liquid won't equal 1/2 inch of ice - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50903-super-bowl-sunday-storm-24-5/?do=findComment&comment=4806899 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 GFS never has and never will nail a CAD event. I think the bulk of the ice accretion will come from the earlier lighter precip that falls and once heavier precip rolls in it will be hard to pile it on (even sitting at 32). Down my way, I'm thinking around .15 to .2 on tree limbs, leaves, rails etc..would really like to hear some pingers early in the AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Trufully though, if this thing overperforms, we shouldn't be surprised here in the Southeast, it how things go... expect a little, get a lot, expect a lot, get nothin lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Guys, I just wonder about temps. Ive been stuck at 35-36 for hours now and precip is hauling arse toward us. Almost like theres not enough time to have temps adjust downward with clouds, etc.. Just curious what the models are seeing if temps are maybe a little warmer than what we thought they might be at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Guys, I just wonder about temps. Ive been stuck at 35-36 for hours now and precip is hauling arse toward us. Almost like theres not enough time to have temps adjust downward with clouds, etc.. Just curious what the models are seeing if temps are maybe a little warmer than what we thought they might be at this juncture. Or the models have been right and ppl keep saying they’re wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Guys, I just wonder about temps. Ive been stuck at 35-36 for hours now and precip is hauling arse toward us. Almost like theres not enough time to have temps adjust downward with clouds, etc.. Just curious what the models are seeing if temps are maybe a little warmer than what we thought they might be at this juncture. But your dewpoint is 8, so you're going to see surface temperatures drop below freezing once precip moves in. Here is the latest surface wet-bulb temperature map. Sfc wet bulb cold is entrenched at the moment, but NE winds are confined to the western SC upstate into NE GA...so there's an obvious battle here between in situ damming and warm air advection putting pressure on the limited damming as we go into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Guys, I just wonder about temps. Ive been stuck at 35-36 for hours now and precip is hauling arse toward us. Almost like theres not enough time to have temps adjust downward with clouds, etc.. Just curious what the models are seeing if temps are maybe a little warmer than what we thought they might be at this juncture. You'll cool once precip starts. DP's are 10 to 12 right now. Wet bulb is probably around 28 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just now, Disc said: You'll cool once precip starts. DP's are 10 to 12 right now. Wet bulb is probably around 28 degrees right now. Yea youre right I just calculated it to be 28 as well its like 27 and change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: But your dewpoint is 8, so you're going to see surface temperatures drop below freezing once precip moves in. Here is the latest surface wet-bulb temperature map. Sfc wet bulb cold is entrenched at the moment, but NE winds are confined to the western SC upstate into NE GA...so there's an obvious battle here between in situ damming and warm air advection putting pressure on the limited damming as we go into tomorrow morning. Thanks for the input Grit! Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The 0z Canadian. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 @mackerel_sky good luck watching the SuperBowl going by the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: @mackerel_sky good luck watching the SuperBowl going by the GGEM No worries here, temp up 2 degrees last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just now, mackerel_sky said: No worries here, temp up 2 degrees last hour It'll drop when precip starts!! You know that........... lol What is your temp and DP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 30 and dropping here just east of Morganton with a dew point of 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: It'll drop when precip starts!! You know that........... lol What is your temp and DP? 36/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 36/11 Mack, you are colder than I am (my DP is a little lower) - I think we will get *something* - maybe a wintry scene with power and driveable roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Duncana12 said: 30 and dropping here just east of Morganton with a dew point of 8. Wow. Sounds like you're about to get clocked. Good luck friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 34/14 here. Starting to make me nervous. I love winter as much as anyone, but don't care for ice. My trees can't take many more years of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 33 here in Danville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Latest HRRR continues to increase snow and sleet for WNC Blue Ridge areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Learned a new word tonight via GSP's morning discussion, juxtapose. They are mentioning bust potential, the good kind, if you like ice! Heaviest precip will generally be where temps remain warmer, but there is a bit of uncertainty across areas just north of the I-85 corridor especially across the Upstate where the combination of heavier rates and insitu damming may juxtapose for a more significant icing event than we have forecast. For now have continued wording of around or just under 0.10" ice but just putting it out there that there is concerning bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Light snow here for the last 20 minutes...i repeat light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 36/17 with light snow still and maybe a pinger or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 51 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Light snow here for the last 20 minutes...i repeat light. Started as all rain here...temp dropped fast. Went back up to 36 before it started but in 20 to 25 minutes its down to 31...light icing on cars now, Upstream saw 6 and 7 degree temp falls with less impressive dewpoints...given lower dewpoints here 29 or 30 still looks good. Edit...probably closer to 30 based on current dps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 25 minutes ago, Lookout said: Started as all rain here...temp dropped fast. Went back up to 36 before it started but in 20 to 25 minutes its down to 31...light icing on cars now, Upstream saw 6 and 7 degree temp falls with less impressive dewpoints...given lower dewpoints here 29 or 30 still looks good. Edit...probably closer to 30 based on current dps. Wow...nice Mostly rain here now down to 35/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Light snow to begin here in Candler, NC. Will be interesting to see how long it lasts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Steady rain and down to 33 now. Man looks like Highlands has a nice white coating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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