GunBlade Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: Will be interesting to see the RGEM, will it back down or continue holding the cold longer... The way the RGEM handles the CAD def looks much better than the HRRR and more realistic. It’s anyone guess though whether the cold it holds is 30 or 33 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I think quite a bit of sleet could fall in the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge where the cold air is ever so slightly deeper from Lake Lure to Wilkesboro before it transitions to ZR as shown here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The RDPS is not backing down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: The RDPS is not backing down.. I think that’s the highest run yet. And correcting slightly west each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 inch over Mack's house (or what's left of it, as the roof collapses!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I think that’s the highest run yet. And correcting slightly west each run 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I think that’s the highest run yet. And correcting slightly west each run That better not be right, or I won't be watching the Super Bowl tomorrow!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Wow @ the RGEM!! Their would be a lot of busts forecasts if thay verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Wow @ the RGEM!! Their would be a lot of busts forecasts if thay verified. Where are you getting it so quick? Ive been waiting on tropical tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 The HRRR is trying to paint heavy snow above 4000 ft in WNC, dont know if thats accurate with the amount of WAA coming in but interesting to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Where are you getting it so quick? Ive been waiting on tropical tidbits http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=zr_acc&rh=2018020400&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Where are you getting it so quick? Ive been waiting on tropical tidbits Yeah me too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 @Disc do you believe Danville could see around .25 of ZR , or just slightly west of Danville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I think that’s the highest run yet. And correcting slightly west each run It is! Each run has been going up about .20 , that's my first over an inch total shown! Anybody got temps with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Disc said: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=zr_acc&rh=2018020400&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt= Surely that can't verify in this set-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I think that’s the highest run yet. And correcting slightly west each run Regardless if amounts are correct, this is in agreement with other meso models of where the highest ZR will be found..not so sure I want to jackpot with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Disc said: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=zr_acc&rh=2018020400&fh=48&r=us_ma&dpdt= Disc, Snowgoose has really propped up the RGEM this winter. Do you weigh it into your forecasting or do you think it is quite overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 A zoomed in view... Folks, even if you take half of these totals off... thats a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Surely that can't verify in this set-up? It can, and don't call me Surely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Surely that can't verify in this set-up? @Buddy1987 It's overdone, no doubt, but even a half or a third of that amount is still trouble. The main takeaway is it is honing in on where we will see the most ice. What is concerning is it continues to uptick the amounts, just like the 3k NAM did. Will the RGEM verify verbatim? Very unlikely. But the trends of being colder and icier can't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 RGEM wants to keep the upstate ZR throughout the entire event..this would give 'forecast bust' a new meaning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It can, and don't call me Surely! Very doubtful, Just talked to a Met. He says way to far east with the ZR and WAY TOO COLD!! IHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Disc said: @Buddy1987 It's overdone, no doubt, but even a half or a third of that amount is still trouble. The main takeaway is it is honing in on where we will see the most ice. What is concerning is it continues to uptick the amounts, just like the 3k NAM did. Will the RGEM verify verbatim? Very unlikely. But the trends of being colder and icier can't be ignored. 3kNAM has heavy rain moving in pretty quick, that would bring temps up faster correct? Don't need the heavy rain. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Very doubtful, Just talked to a Met. He says way to far east with the ZR and WAY TOO COLD!! IHO The QPF is 1" plus for the event, hope temps don't bust cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 GFS came in colder and icier too. And is trying to show the high elevation snow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The RDPS is not backing down.. Wow 0.69 or for me I would take it. If I can not get snow might as well be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Very doubtful, Just talked to a Met. He says way to far east with the ZR and WAY TOO COLD!! IHO Like @Disc said, yes the amounts are almost guaranteed too high. I disagree with the too Far East comment though. These setup right around 85 almost always and that’s exactly how this is. The closer to 85 the less accumulations but go just north west of it and it really starts to add up quickly. That RGEM area of zr is much better than earlier where it gave me almost .5 zr right st the union and meck line. This is much more realistic locations for accumulations but still prob unrealistic totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Very doubtful, Just talked to a Met. He says way to far east with the ZR and WAY TOO COLD!! IHO Frosty, has this individual been involved in cad type setups then? They are nothing to mess with. The same way the cold air funnels down the appalachians and then refuses to budge is the same way events happened when I still lived in CT. The cold air would funnel down the St Lawrence Valley and literally get trapped and could not get out. As Disc alluded to and I asked to have confirmation, even if it is overdone by 1/2 of the total, for me I would still be looking at 1/2'' of ice accretion. That is devastating to this area and areas further to my southwest, namely Mack and Burrell, etc.. I would tread very careful when overthinking cad setups. They are unreal to forecast. The problem with the HRRR that I have little knowledge on is cannot pick up on the shallow boundaries, whereas it cannot see the low level cold as some of the other models and such can. Just my two cents on the whole thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 0z GFS give mby around .25.. after giving us basically nothing up til now... wow... this is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: 3kNAM has heavy rain moving in pretty quick, that would bring temps up faster correct? Don't need the heavy rain. lol Yes. Also, heavier rates won't freeze as well at 31 or 32 degrees. If you actually want efficient ice accrual, hope for lighter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Out with the old, in with the new... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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