Buddy1987 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: RNK says less than an inch of snow and only 0.02 of ice? . Yes and ROA is always ridiculously over conservative imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 How is CJ saying 4-5 hours of freezing rain and is only .1-.15 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Ummmmm.... I highly recommend you upstate people go to FB and find the WYFF - Chris Justice update from about an hour ago!!! That future cast radar looks like it could get RGEM totals!! There is some mod/heavy rain falling and it's frozen according to radar!! I know, self limiting, latent heat release, blah blah, but moderate Precip, could aid in a lot better wet-bulbing conditions! You get that precip at 29/30 degrees, which is not at all impossible, and your gonna have big problems!! Ask Lookout about temps being forecasted about 3-5 degrees too high! And tree loss! ( yes that was a different set up) but just making a point Mack, actual WYFF radar had me under snow for 12 hours last January and all I got was a backend dusting. #NeverForget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The HRRR is beginning to catch on to the freezing rain potential. It keeps surface temps at or below freezing in Forsyth County through 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Hrrr and Rgem giving Oconee and parts of Pickens the old snow(sleet) hole i see. Hrrr has me only getting down to 35-36 with dew points of 23-26. Currently 39/13 so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Mack, actual WYFF radar had me under snow for 12 hours last January and all I got was a backend dusting. #NeverForget It nailed the Halloween 14 event, really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 That’s a lot of ice on the HRRR for Greenville. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Just now, No snow for you said: That’s a lot of ice on the HRRR for Greenville. Wow Yeah, and it supposedly a warm biased model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Poimen said: The HRRR is beginning to catch on to the freezing rain potential. It keeps surface temps at or below freezing in Forsyth County through 15Z. Really interested to see if precip makes it to ground before sunrise hear in Forsyth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Really interested to see if precip makes it to ground before sunrise hear in Forsyth county It looks like the HRRR is trying to get the first amounts in here around 6am, which gives us about a 3-4 hour window of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Mack, most models are paining a ZR bullseye right over our back yard. Which is how most ZR events back in the early 2000's seemed to play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 17 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Mack, most models are paining a ZR bullseye right over our back yard. Which is how most ZR events back in the early 2000's seemed to play out Never want to be in the bullseye 8 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Just hit my hrrr low of 36...nowhere but up from here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Just hit my hrrr low of 36...nowhere but up from here? Wait on the cloud deck, up to 40 in no time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS iciest run yet! Gets some barely down to SC, but trending colder, like all models today! I told you Brother! I am expecting closer to RGEM totals. Not saying it will be that much, but it be more than the LOWER modeled guidance. NEVER take CAD lightly... even in-situ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 nowcast - how does this compare to recent mesoscale models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Just hit my hrrr low of 36...nowhere but up from here? I’m beginning to fear worst case in terms of ice for the upstate. Not many are talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Just hit my hrrr low of 36...nowhere but up from here? Yeah 36/15 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I'm sitting at 36 already near Fountain inn.. i think I was still supposed to be around 40 per WYFF hourly forecast this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 I was just looking at the 18z RGEM if that were to verify it's big time ICE STORM for everybody but Mack!!! Oops posted a pic of Mack by mistake............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Hrrr has been spot on for here this winter so im believing it. To be fair it showed me at 34 the lowest temp..think i misread it earlier. Dropped to 35 briefly now back to 36/15. If its right Mack may see some pingers and a sliver up through NC..thats about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 25 minutes ago, drfranklin said: nowcast - how does this compare to recent mesoscale models? It looks fairly similar as depicted on hi-res models. Maybe a tick faster with precip over southern MS/AL but thats pretty much it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Clouds rolled in here a bit faster than I expected. May not be good for cooling. Forecasted low is 29 for tonight so we will see. Currently at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I was just looking at the 18z RGEM if that were to verify it's big time ICE STORM for everybody but Mack!!! Oops posted a pic of Mack by mistake............... It hammers me! What u looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Clouds rolled in here a bit faster than I expected. May not be good for cooling. Forecasted low is 29 for tonight so we will see. Currently at 36. Yep been cloudy here for a while. temp has stopped dropping till precip moves in, sitting at 34.4 DP of 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 HRRR at 23z looks a smidge warmer imo. Wonder if the other hi-res mods will respond accordingly? The dewpoint here is 11 so I would think the temp should be able to drop a little, even with the cloud cover, as the wind is calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It hammers me! What u looking at? I was kidding Mack, You running well per models, ESPECIALLY RGEM!!! A lot of people would be happy if RGEM is even close to verifying IF you want a ICE STORM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Text JB , get his thoughts, report back, Thanks Man u are obsessed with JB more than anybody I have ever seen. If u don't like him great i doubt he is to upset. Pit as much into the models as u do following JB and you will have a red tag. U follow him more than anybody as you post stuff he has on his site all the time no Twitter. Now reel in some ice with all of the stalking ability you have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Down to 34 here in Rutherford County. This area is in a prime spot for CAD wreckage. Left Shelby at 7:15 and it was 42. 26 miles west it is 34 degrees . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncana12 Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 Latest from GSP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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